The NHL Entry Draft is less than a week away, and July 1st is just around the corner. The 2011/2012 NHL season might be over. The 2012/2013 silly season is about to begin.

I thought I'd make of list of all of the various rumors of Oilers players (or potential Oilers players) I've heard recently. I am not going to name any sources, because doing so would make this blog less fun to consider. You folks are all on Twitter now anyway, so you'll know where most of these come from. In this blog, I'm not going to say if I think any of these are real or fabricated. I might comment on a deal's merits, but I'm not going to judge the quality (or lack thereof) of the information.

Part 1: New Head Coach

I better start with this one, because it's the question I get asked the most. It's my belief that the Oilers won't hire someone until half-way through July. It's too close to the draft now to make a decision, and right after the draft is July 1st UFA stuff. I think mid-July is when this gets done.

The guy everyone wants to be hired is AHL wizard Jon Cooper. From my understanding, he's not really being considered by the organization. A damn shame. It's not that they don't like Cooper or don't recognize his genius. There is real pressure on Steve Tambellini (especially since the hiring of MacT) to make the Oilers immediately better next season. A rookie NHL coach might not be the safest way to accomplish that.

Brent Sutter is still the most likely choice for the job, although he might be the guy the fans least want to see. A name that is picking up more support and momentum as the discussion continues is current Oilers employee Ralph Kreuger. I could see him in the job. Todd Nelson interviewed for the job (apparently) but returned to OKC, and has said he wants to continue there, so he's out. Rumors suggested Marc Crawford was possible...no idea what's happening with him, though. Another name popping up is current LA Kings Assistant Coach John Stevens. Considering how his team just won the cup, the Stevens idea might be outstanding.

But alas, I think this is Sutter's job to lose. Absolutely the wrong choice, but sadly, as Oilers fans, we`re use to "the wrong choice".

Part 2: Potential Draft Scenarios

1. The Oilers will use the 1st overall pick, and will take one of Nail Yakupov, Ryan Murray, or Griffin Reinhart. If I was to put odds on each, I'd say it's 75% chance of Yakupov, 20% chance of Murray, 5% chance of Reinhart. David Staples from The Cult of Hockey did a survey on the weekend, and 9 out of 10 dentists recommend drafting Yakupov.

2. The Oilers could deal the pick and move down because they want D, and dealing down would be a way to get it. Possible scenarios include: Oilers moving 1st overall pick and a second asset to the Montreal Canadiens for PK Subban and the 3rd overall pick. Oilers moving 1st overall pick to Toronto for Luke Schenn and the 5th overall pick is another rumor. I have heard no specific talk or rumors suggesting the Oilers will move the 1st overall pick outright. From what I've heard, they are willing to move down, but only if they get a Top 5 pick back plus a second asset. I don't think the Habs have any interest in moving Subban. The Toronto scenario, however, has some potential.

3. Plenty of rumors suggesting the Oilers not only plan on keeping their 1st overall pick, but the team is also trying to acquire a 2nd - Top 10 pick. Rumors suggest Anaheim is interested in Sam Gagner, although the Oilers would need to include a 2nd asset to make that happen. Carolina and Winnipeg are both open to moving their picks (apparently) for the right return. Carolina needs forwards; Winnipeg needs a center, although Sam Gagner likely wouldn't be a solution for them. They want size.

4. The only way Gagner is moved is if Mikhail Grigorenko is still available. Worded another way, let's say it's pick #6, and Grigs is still available. Only at that point could Edmonton pull the pin on a deal with Anaheim, whereas they'd ship Gagner, and perhaps their 2nd round pick for 6th overall. People suggesting the Oilers would give Gagner, Paajarvi and a 2nd are perhaps under-estimating what the Oilers think of Gagner. They would love to add both Yakupov and Grigorenko, but I'm not sure if they'd package up three assets to make it happen.

5. I don't believe the Oilers will move Gagner so they can draft a defenseman. Doing so would leave a huge hole on the 2nd line. Shawn Horcoff is not a 2nd line center, and Eric Belanger is terrible and wants out (more on that later).

6. Should the Oilers draft Yakupov, and especially if they also acquire another Top 10 pick in order to draft Grigorenko, they might pull off another deal in the first round. This one could send Ales Hemsky to Boston for their 1st round pick (24th Overall). The only reason the Oilers would do this is if a specific defenseman they want is still available. This might not be the best draft class, but the quality of defensive prospects is deep. Derrick Pouliot is a quality puck-moving defenseman who might be around at #24 due to the amount of depth this season on D at the draft. The Oilers organization saw plenty of Pouliot all season with the Oil Kings, and like what he brings. It is possible even if the Oilers don't move Gagner to get a 2nd - 1st round pick they could try to move up or move Hemsky to get a D man.

7. While all of this draft trade talk is very exciting, keep in mind that the Oilers organization needs to get better in 2012/2013, or Steve Tambellini will likely become unemployed. Dealing away Gagner and Hemsky for picks who might not play in the NHL for another year or two is likely not a move designed to immediately improve the team. Therefore, the entire "2nd - 1st round draft pick" discussion is a little suspect...unless, of course, the Oil deal their 2nd round pick and a lesser asset as a way of moving up their 2nd pick.

8. The Oilers will try to move Nikolai Khabibulin, Eric Belanger and Linus Omark at the draft for absolutely anything. ANYTHING. 7th round pick is fine. Box of cereal is fine. Anything.

Part 3: Qualifying Offers

June 25th is the deadline to hand those out. Pretty much the way it works is, if you have a player who is a Restricted Free Agent, you have to give them a "qualifying offer" which is...how can I put this...it's like giving an employee a raise. If you "qualify" a player, you show the team's intention of keeping him. If you don't "qualify" a player, the player becomes a UFA on July 1st, and can sign with any team he wants. Players can accept a qualifying offer if they want, and sign a new deal immediately based on it...but they rarely do so. A qualifying offer is often the starting point for contract negotiations, because it demonstrates the intent of the team.

The Oilers have too many players with contracts right now, so it's fair to assume a few guys won't be qualified.

Sam Gagner - Will get qualified
Chris Vandevelde - I believe he will be qualified (replacement for Belanger on 4th line)
Linus Omark - If he's still an Oiler, I think they will qualify him, just to be jerks
Cam Barker - Will not be qualified. Thanks for coming out.
Jeff Petry - Will be qualified
Theo Peckham - Will be qualified, although he could be dealt first
Devan Dubnyk - Will be qualified
Alex Plante - Will be qualified, although the Oilers could be him too. Either he or Peckham is going.
Hunter Trembley - Will not be qualified
Milan Kytnar - Will not be qualified

Part 4: Unrestricted Free Agents Potentially Leaving

And then you got your UFA's, Chuck. This could be where the Oilers dump off a number of contracts.

Ryan Smyth - May or may not be back. Contract negotiations are not going well.
Lennart Petrell - Doesn't sound too encouraging that he'll be back. I'd re-sign him.
Darcy Hordichuk - 95% sure he won't be back. Oilers want a bigger enforcer.
Taylor Chorney - 50/50 chance he re-signs, but he'll never be an NHL player. Guy for the farm
Yann Danis - Most likely won't be back. Wants to play in the NHL.
Ryan Keller, Josh Green, Bryan Rodney - All or none could be back for the Barons.

Part 5: Unrestricted Free Agents Potentially Signing

1. The big one, of course, is defenseman Justin Schultz. As it gets closer to July 1st, the more it sounds like Schultz is actually going to sign in Edmonton, which is incredible. Young defenseman with true top pairing potential. Why Edmonton over Vancouver, Buffalo or Toronto? Schultz could play immediately and move into Top 4 minutes before the end of the year. The 'Nucks, Sabres and Leafs all have pretty decent D cores already. Schultz has said he wants a chance to play right away.

2. Oilers management will approach some of the bigger UFA defenseman available, but I don't expect any to sign with Edmonton. Team will make obligatory offers to Ryan Suter, Matt Carle and Jason Garrison. Suter is going to Detroit; I think Carle will stay in Philly, and Garrison is headed to Vancouver.

3. Rumors exist that the Oilers have interest in Barret Jackman. It sounds like Jackman is staying in St. Louis, but if the Oil bring in Schultz, adding a defensive-minded guy like Jackman too would make plenty of sense. An Oilers D6 consisting of Jackman, N. Schultz, J. Schultz, Petry, Smid and Whitney would actually be solid. Not league best or anything, but definitely not the worst.

4. As far as forwards go, the Oilers won't hit any home runs. I suppose they'd do the thing everyone else will do, and offer Zach Parise a new home. He won't sign here. The Oilers, interestingly enough, could make an offer on Alex Semin if they draft Yakupov. Not sure that's the mentor I'd want the kid to have. If the Oilers can dump off Khabibulin, they'll need someone Russian on the team to make sure Yakupov looks both ways before he walks across the street.

5. If the Oilers move Gagner and Belanger at the draft, they could go after Jarret Stoll to fill the 3rd line role (moving Horcoff up the depth chart for a season or two). The Oilers, with MacT back in the fold, will go nowhere near Dustin Penner. MacT kinda liked Stoll though. Stoll is a rock star. Not sure he'd want to come back to Edmonton.

6. A few names I've heard mentioned as possible targets in free agency: Travis Moen, Adam Burish, George Parros and Jordin Tootoo. They're all completely lame, so it makes total sense that Tambellini could sign them.

7. As far as goalies go, it sounds like the Oilers will be going hard after Josh Harding. If this happens, the plan is to most definitely bury Khabibulin in the minors this season (if the Oilers can't deal him).

Part 6: Trades

I don't expect the Oilers to make much movement outside of trying to dump some contracts during the draft. It has been suggested the Oilers could be a destination for Roberto Luongo, but I don't think they want his contract. I can't see the Oilers having much interest in Rick Nash for the same reason.

What could cause a player move or two is if the Oilers lose the Schultz lottery and if they completely fail at picking up some talent on July 1st. Without Schultz, the Oilers absolutely need to add a Bottom 6 forward (or two depending if Smyth or Petrell re-sign), a Top 4 defenseman, a depth defenseman, and a goalie. This is, of course, if the goal is to improve in 2012/2013. If the goal is to continue to "build through the draft", Oilers management should do as little as possible, and just keep playing the kids.

Knowing the work ethic of Oilers management, I suggest they will do as little as possible, regardless if the goal is to win next season or not. Aside from perhaps the Justin Schultz thing and the Nail Yakupov thing, Oilers fans should brace themselves. Last year's Belanger, Barker and Hordichuk signings will be this season's Parros, Tootoo and some other random filler defenseman signing.

I sure hope MacT can change the mentality of the people running this organization. Steve Tambellini: Tic Toc.

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