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Trade Deadline: Byfuglien More Important Than You Think |
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Follow me on Twitter for updates and thoughts @Teddier
Today the Winnipeg Jets play another key divisional game with considerable effect on the standings win or lose. For the Jets it's a must-win game, as are all divisional games now, but so it is the Capitals. This is the plight for the Winnipeg Jets as they try to stay in contention for the top 8 in the east.
The Jets left at an unusual time from Winnipeg yesterday and it was later revealed why when Scott Brown tweeted that the Jets were invited the Canadian Embassy in Washington DC by Ambassador (former Manitoba Premier) Gary Doer. Several of the Jets tweeted about the honour and there was more than just the team there as members of the Chipman family also travelled to be apart of this occasion. Hopefully Doer passed along some tips to the Jets on how to string a few wins together as his former party has now won four straight provincial elections.
The news which was quiet before but now openly discussed by Noel is the round of the flu which has hit the team. Kyle Wellwood stayed in Winnipeg due to illness and when you look around the city every second person you see seems to have come down with it too. With any luck the bug does not take hold and hit the team hard particularly at this critical juncture.
I came across an interesting article today from one of the great sites and thinkers of hockey who look at advanced statistics in hockey. Some of you may know my feelings on advanced stats. I think they are an excellent too but they do not solve problems or provide solutions only highlight them. I don't need to debate with anyone about the value- they are very informative and the guys who put them together do some excellent work, it's just my approach to thinking. Ironically, I'm not a strong intellect in regards to statistics yet I work in an industry which may have pioneered deep statistical analysis.
So what does this all mean? Dustin Byfuglien is more valuable to the Jets than one might think, and as a defenseman.
David Johnson who is the writer and data miner at hockeyanalysis.com provides this information and I encourage you to go visit his site, it's excellent. With his latest article Johnson challenges the idea that forwards and defenders have little effect on save percentage. In his data he uncovers some interesting metrics about how certain players have an effect on the good or poor results of a particular team or goaltender's performance.
His hypothesis is this: there is more than just luck when looking at save percentage of goalies and there is a method to find out. If you want to read about it go to the site, it’s all explained there and I could in no way do the hard justice in a summary. However I can take the information as it relates to certain players and discuss it.
The top rated defensive players are determined by a weighted average and if the total was more than 100 it could be said the player improved his goalie’s save percentage. Dustin Byfuglien ranks #23 of top 25 defenders in the 4 year average.
Byfuglien has been an enigma for the Jets, wildly popular and overly criticised. The harshest criticisms come from those (and this writer too) who deplore his defensive play and apparent lack of effort. Byfuglien is only 1.11% of from where perennial Norris Trophy candidate Nick Lidstrom is at #2. At worst Byfuglien is hardly the oaf many portray him as and at best he does not have to rely on the variable of ‘good luck’ to make an impact on how Ondrej Pavalec and Chris Mason play.
In the 16 games Byfuglien missed the GAA of the Jets was 2.56, in the 4 games since he came back it is 1.75. If you break the 16 games into 4 game sets in succession the GAA is as follows: 3, 3, 2 and 2.25. While the trend shows improvement it is not to the same extent with Byfuglien in the line up.
Is this information conclusive about Byfuglien and his overall value? Not a chance but as we near the trade deadline it should give those who want to rid themselves of the Jets biggest player, and contract, pause for thought about what he actually does for the team.
Enjoy the game.
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • 
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