The Frolik Conundrum
By all accounts Michael Frolik will be a centre piece free agent come July 1st. The reason is it appears there is no movement between his camp and the Jets when it comes to a new contract for next season and beyond. This is not news as it’s a regular topic on the airwaves, the message boards and Twitter.
To clarify it is rumoured that the player wants 5 million for each of 5 years and if the market stays the same it’s likely that he will get it, if not more.
The Jets could have traded Frolik at the deadline and received a very deep return considering Perron garnered a first. They could have extended him longer last summer when he was an RFA player. They also could have signed him by now, bowing to the well-placed pressure his agent Alan Walsh has used in these negotiations.
Do you see the problem? It didn’t have to be this way and while the clock is not yet a midnight it’s getting close, awfully close, to a two year relationship ending.
The manager, Kevin Cheveldaoff, took a leap of faith leading up to the trade deadline when he elected not to trade Michael Frolik knowing he did not have a contract extension in place at that time. Why Chevy elected to pursue such a risky path is unclear but one has to assume it involved sending a message to his team: that after 4 seasons we are ready to compete and win now, not later.
That gamble with Frolik paid off the and the Jets made the post season for the first time since the Thrasher relocated to Winnipeg and since the former franchise’s only appearance in the post season in 2007. That was the short-term reward and right now it looks like there might not be any long-term one.
The conundrum that exists is how do you pay a player now- when you wouldn’t pay him before and elected to say without stating that he was ‘too valuable or important to trade’?
The Jets can afford to pay any player any salary, that is the wealth and support that exists when your co-owner is the 25th richest person on earth but that wealth does not mean money can be thrown anywhere indiscriminately. Doing so is not only financially foolish but with a finite amount of money that can be spent it is also a poor management strategy. The fall out from teams who did just that these past few seasons could be seen this summer when the salary cap does not rise as much as believed just two years ago. The premise here with the Jets, in case anyone forgets, is that they won’t spend because they can.
For many fans this situation the team now sees itself facing is a ‘lose-lose’ one and only the slimmest of hopes exists for something positive. Even the national media pundits are seeing a Jets team with no Frolik next season. If this is the case who comes in?
Starting with age similar or younger
#1-The first option, at least by simple logic, is Alexander Burmistrov but he is not a right wing but he does possess a two way game and excels in some specialty roles.
#2- Erik Condra- he is believed to be leaving Ottawa and while there might be suitors he may be a cheaper option and he is only a year older. Frolik is the more complete player of the two, by a significant margin, and brings far more offensive upside but if dollars are an issue Condra would not be the worst alternative.
#3- Brad Richardson- he is useful but still a downgrade compared to Frolik. His underlying numbers peg him between a 3rd and 2nd line player and if that where the Jets feel they want to use Frolik why not pay a player the correct salary who fits that role- that would be Richardson.
Above age
#4- Joel Ward at age 34 is much like the Drew Stafford scenario, you like the guy but you’re not sure for how long. For two years at the right salary Ward could take his second line numbers and be a huge upgrade and mentor for the developing third line on the Jets.
#5- Justin Williams- speaking of mentors is there any available player who can bring the playoff experience and ‘intangibles’ of Justin Williams? Intangibles? Remember all those things we can’t quantify that make players seem really great! Williams has them all by some accounts and at age 33 he too would fit the same role as Ward.
#6- Mike Santorelli. While not a true RW he is a right shot and he’s younger than the above two players at 29. Santorelli was a Jet briefly in 2013 but either he had no interest in returning or the Jets had none in him but does that change now?
If you can consider these the top available replacement options for Frolik then it should be pretty obvious that the market will command more than what fans in Winnipeg believe Frolik is worth. This time the player, and his agent, have all the leverage and with the second year of ‘official feeling out period’ where teams can talk to player before July 1 it’s likely they know what the market will be. They probably already know but that matters not, it’s their job to squeeze out every last dime from the Jets.
It appears that Chevy and the Jets are backed into a bit of corner but I doubt they see it that way. They knew the risk of only doing a one-year deal last summer and not trading Frolik for something at the deadline. They did not end up here by accident or miscalculation, it was just one of the possible outcomes and they have certainly planned for it.
You will see this paraphrase of a Cheveldayoff quote quite a bit before the draft and UFA period, “I had some discussion and idea presented to me that I said I would like to look at again later”. I would imagine Chevy is/has been reviewing those idea from a strategic and tactical point of view and probably having some more discussion. As
Rick Ralph of TSN 1290 says, “to make trades you need draft picks and prospects”. Those are now two things the Jets have in relative abundance and with the cap situation being tight for many teams there are some ideas that might actually come to fruition.
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