So who do you protect?
The Jets have now signed Mathieu Perreault and Mark Schiefele to contract extensions with Jacob Trouba and Adam Lowry sure to come. It’s good times in Winnipeg as the key pieces of what little success the Jets had are getting locked up and at fair value but what about the looming expansion draft- what does that entail for the roster?
Here are the
Rules for the Expansion Draft that you can review to understand the situation better.
The key thing to remember is that players who have NMC (no movement clauses) will be on the protected list if they choose not to waive that clause.
You don’t have to worry about Laine, Connor, Ehlers, Morrissey, Petan or Lemiuex- they are all exempt as are many others. It’s the players who have played last year and before that the chess match is about.
According to
General Fanager you can see who is on the protected list automatically. When I click on it it I see only Enstrom and Byfuglien as automatically protected. If you go and check
Cap Friendly things get a little more confusing.
Enstrom
Byfuglien
Wheeler
Little
Stuart
Are all the listed players with NTC or NMC on the Jets. Clearly the NMC contracts are the ones that cannot be changed and therefore wasting a spot on Stuart is not necessary, but who should get spots?
The Jets can do one of two things, as can every other team: protect 8 skaters and 1 goalie or 7 forwards, 3 defence and one goalie.
Let’s look at both options but before you do that remember there are some conditions on who can be exposed.
One defenceman who is under contract for the 17-18 season and has played 40 games in last year or 70 in last two seasons.
Two forwards under contract for 17-18 and have played 40 games in last season or 70 in last two seasons.
One goaltender who is under contract for the 17-18 season or a RFA who has received his qualifying option.
7-3-1 Option
Forwards:
Wheeler, Little Scheifele, Perreault, Dano, Lowry, Armia
Defence
Byfuglien, Enstrom, Trouba
Goalie
Helleybuyck
8-1 Option
Forwards
Wheeler, Little, Schiefele, Perreault
Defence
Byfuglien, Enstrom, Trouba, Myers
Goalie
Hellebuyck
Can you see this any other way? The problem for the Jets is the defence corps versus the forward corps. If they leave Myers exposed do they do so to protect a certain forward? Is there anyone on the Jets who Las Vegas would choose over Myers if left exposed? Of course not but perhaps it depends on when the picks are being made?
Will the Las Vegas franchise just go down the league list alphabetically and choose one player from each team or will they build the team by position and the order matters not? In the end that part does not affect the outcome as the protected lists are revealed 3 days before the draft. At that point the expansion franchise can begin building it’s team from who is available.
Should Trouba sign and should no other front end acquisitions happen I would assume the Jets go with 4 and 4 with a goalie sacrificing the protection of an extra player in order to keep defence core intact. That seems to make the most sense at this point and it’s doubtful other GMs are going to help each other manage this problem they all face.
The question, or strategy rather, becomes about what or who are you willing to lose. If the Jets protect the players above who gets taken? It would likely be one of Lowry, Dano, Copp or Armia as coming off the books and UFA will be Stafford, Burmistrov, Thorburn, Matthias, and Howden.
There will be cap space but there will be a hole but how damaging is that hole in light of the fact 29 other teams will have one too. A smart GM should be thinking about how he fills that hole, the one he knows is coming, and that’s why having so many draft picks and prospects is vital. In that regard the Jets are not in a bad place but it’s not ideal either.
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