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Tonight marks the second game in for the Winnipeg Jets in the second half of this shortened season. Coincidentally it is played against the Leafs, a team the Jets are chasing and one the Jets allowed to sneak away with two points from their first meeting in the MTS Centre.
That game marked the first goal of the season for Leafs premiere sniper Phil Kessel and since then he has followed that up with 6 goals. The Jets’ sniper Evander Kane was mired in an 8 game goal less drought but has scored 7 since. The teams have gone in a similar direction, both playing 15 games since their last meeting. The Leafs are 9-5-1 while the Jets are 8-6-1 and sit 5 points back of the Leafs in the East.
The part of this game which seems intriguing is the amount of people from the predicative analytics school of thought who believe the Leafs are due for some significant regression in the second half of the season. James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail offered some insight into that
Belief as well.
For the home team it means"opportunity", as should the ‘hockey nerds’ be right that reversal of fortune could begin tonight. It doesn’t come from being a sieve though, something the Leafs are not, although they do get out shot a lot. In fact they are the second most out shot team in the league. That most simple stat could say the Leafs’ goalies are playing above their ability. Counter to that point is the optimist who thinks the goalies have finally reached their playing level.
Regardless some smart money is saying something is going to change for the worse for the Leafs.
Should the Jets be the impetus of negative change it will be without Alexander Burmistrov who was still on the ice when the coach was addressing the media. In all likelihood the young Russian sits tonight while Chris Thorburn suits up for the first time in four games. Let the outrage begin.
By now Noel’s comments on Burmistrov today are know but let me paraphrase. When asked about Burmistrov’s laughing behaviour on the bench last game Noel replied, “I’ll keep my comments to myself,” to the media gallery. It’s too bad no one had the foresight to ask just what it is that makes Thorburn a better pick than a positive corsi player.
Here’s a little food for thought:
Ladd has a 21.7 shooting % his career average is 11.21%
Kane has a 9.2 shooting % his career average is 9.87%
Wheeler has a 12.1 shooting % is career average is 10.68%
Little has a 10.0 shooting %, his career average is 12%
Wellwood has a 6.3 shooting % his career average is 3.9%
So like the smart guys predict for the Leafs some Jets are due to regress. Other players are due to improve too. Interestingly enough it’s a guy like Antropov who stands to make one of the biggest jumps if history and trends hold tue. The big Kazakh is shooting a lowly 4.0% but his career average is 14%. Last season he shot 15.8%! Man does this guy get a bum rap some times.
For the Jets though it’s all about engagement in the game and they cannot afford to let another team come into their house and dictate the play and the game. The one thing they have done to their own game on the road is the same thing teams are doing to the Jets in their building: controlling the play and pace.
There can be no passengers and everyone has to be a motivated and interested. The Leafs have enough offensive skill to make life rough for the Jets. It’s why they better not be caught napping.
Photo credit to The Backhand Shelf
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • 
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