Jets Trying Lowry as #1 Centre?
There was some surprise, some talk and then some more talk about the lines on the first few days of training camp for the Winnipeg Jets. The main one being that Adam Lowry was riding up front on the top line between Andrew Ladd and Brian Little.
It’s an interesting move and one that could simply be based on a hunch by coach Paul Maurice or there could be some evidence to support his tactical move. Remember the move to put Lowry between Ladd and Little is a tactic and tactics are the implementation part of strategy.
Looking at the bigger picture, what does Maurice hope to achieve by making this move? The answer may lie in some data and perhaps Maurice has spent the off season looking at some of the individual event data the Jets track in-house.
The premise is that the Central Division and the Western Conference are loaded up with big physical forwards in particular the centre position. It’s the hardest position to fill and every team wants one and the Jets may have a future top line centre in Lowry but he’s not being used that way, until now. Less we forget Lowry just played in his rookie season and has a long ways to go before any significant proclamation.
During his rookie season last year Lowry played 981 minutes of event strength ice time. The forwards he faced the most in those minutes were the following and the number is the
on ice Corsi % when facing those players.
Stastny 51.2%
Backes 59.5%
Sharp 56.8%
Jokinen 51.5%
Vanek 65.1%
Wilson 60.7%
Kane 53.1%
Bickell 54.3%
Talbot 63%
Briere 70.4%
Here’s the same top ten list but against the most frequently played against defencemen:
Jones 45.2%
Keith 51.2%
Runblad 56.8%
Suter 36.7%
Rozsival 55.6%
Gunnarsson 64.3%
Scandella 64.7%
Klingberg 41.2%
Demers 55.9%
Oduya 57.6%
As you can see other than Suter and Klingberg Lowry holds his own quite well from a possession stand point. In summary Lowry is playing some tougher minutes against sound forwards and defence within the central division. The last part being the most important as we look at more data.
Last spring the Jets lost the the Ducks in the first round of the playoffs in 4 straight games. While the games were not one-sided they did show that Anaheim was bigger and better down the middle. The first graphic below show the shots, blocks and misses in the series as complied and shared by the fantastic
Look at where the Ducks scored compared to the Jets, it’s down low and tight on the net. Below is the chart from that four-game series showing where the Jets say with shot attempts agains and for.
Notice where Lowry is along with the rest of the forwards. He’s not far from where you would hope Stafford would be- up there with Perreault and Little. Lowry is also better than Wheeler to who was held in check that series. In that same data War-on-Ice also tracks what is referred to as High Danger Scoring Chances. In that series Lowry had 4 of those tied with Stempniak and Stafford for the team lead.
Here’s how Lowry shows against the the 4 other playoff teams from the Central Division based on the season series from last season.
Chicago with 2 HDSC
St. Louis with 2 HDSC
Minnesota with 3 HDSC
Nashville with 9 HDSC
These are the teams, along with Colorado and Dallas, who the Jets will face the most this season and where wins are at a premium because the represent ‘4-point’ games. If Lowry is showing he can take the tough competition and survive let alone thrive in that role down the middle perhaps pushing him up further makes sense from a tactical point of view. That’s especially true if the Jets feel they have to get more points from their central division rivals. That might be tough as they had the second best record in their division versus the central division at 16-8-4.
One more thing to watch is Lowry’s scoring. He had 11 goals and 12 assists in his rookie season and did it by playing low and generating chances through his size and positioning. Look back at the chart from the Anaheim series and compare to Lowry’s shots and goals heat map of this past season- you might see something familiar.
If Paul Maurice sees Lowry as a dominant figure against his more frequent opposition it might make sense to find out how far or much Lowry can be used. Putting him on the first line might seem like a big promotion but when you have players such as Perreault, Scheifele, Copp, Burmistrov and Petan ready and waiting its a choice you can afford to make in the short term. It will be up to Lowry to see if this becomes a more permanent move as camp and the preseason progress.
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • 
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