How might the Trouba situation unfold
Oh boy after the Twitter teaser I put out this morning there was certainly enough pressure to get cracking on this blog. First and foremost, nothing is certain but what I will try and do is frame a picture based on the information and knowledge out there compared to what I know.
I think what Jets fans have to come to terms with is that the Trouba situation is simply not a ‘want out of Winnipeg’ for one particular reason. It’s a combination of many issues which are:
Playing top mins
Playing the right side
Contract amount
Contract term
Wanting a better situation/team
We can weigh all these concerns to various degrees but let’s go back a bit in time to the summer of 2012.
Trouba was drafted and the Jets organization flew him and his parents out to see Winnipeg. The Jets had Trouba ranked as the 4th best player in that draft and would have taken him at that spot if they were drafting there. Trouba’s parents basically knew nothing of Winnipeg and the area. They were shown around, dined, wined and Mark Chipman’s daughter took Trouba to the Taylor Swift concert with her. It was a full on sell job to Trouba and his family about the merits of Winnipeg.
Trouba lived with Bogosian but contrary to rumours, had moved out before Bogosian was traded and established his own residence. During this time Trouba had played in many situations but since he started full time with the Jets he has played the 3rd most minutes on defence behind Byfuglien and Enstrom at even strength. In all situations he is again 3rd in minutes behind the same pair.
Where Trouba probably has a true gripe with usage is that he is 4th in time on ice when on the power play behind Byfuglien, Enstrom and Myers (Myers’ minutes include time in Buffalo). When it comes to shorthanded ice time Trouba leads all Jets defenders with partner Mark Stuart close behind. So to his concern about role and usage Trouba is getting the toughest minutes and being played with arguably the worst possible partner for that role in those minutes.
When agents and GMs sit down to discuss contracts, points and usage are a big issue and if Trouba is hoping to cash in on his next deal he hasn’t exactly been put in a situation to succeed where dollars are concerned. The Jets have learned about paying for ‘potential’ and are probably gun shy in this situation of going further than 6 years. However that is anyone’s guess as nothing ever leaks from the Jets management.
So what is the news? What exactly is about to change with Trouba.
Let’s go back a bit once more to when Trouba’s agent first presented his letter/statement. Trouba, who was not in Winnipeg agreed to be on the TSN 1290 radio show Hustler and Lawless to talk about the issue. His agent, Kurt Overhardt quickly took over and filled his spot for that interview.
This is something that should be curious to fans because Trouba, as they have seen him, is one of the most likeable personalities on the team. There’s hardly been a word about him as a person or team mate that is not flattering or praising him. He has been a decent public entity when encountered in the community and the only blemish is based around rumour, most unsubstantiated. Trouba, is a guy who wants to play hockey and get on the ice.
So here’s where it stands. A person close to Trouba was told by the player that he’s getting ansty and nervous about the season. If you are trying to build a foundation for success and financial reward, sitting at home and practicing is not going to get it done. Consider that you have presented the issues as a role/usage scenario and asked to be traded to a team/situation that meets your expectations- you really limit the options.
Take a look
>this article about Overhardt and relate it to the current situation. Here’s
>another article that might be of interest.
How detrimental would it be for Trouba to miss a season? He’s entered the prime of his career and with the third best overall minutes on the team the past three season has only seen his point totals decline. Defenders can be paid for different metrics, and contracts while driven by points, also have other categories that GMs value. How else do you explain the Mark Stuart, Andrew MacDonald, and Luca Sbisa contracts? Does Trouba fall into that category of player?
Does Overhardt fear for his client that he might be overpaid like the above? Of course not. Trouba will get paid but it will be in the range of the right contracts not the bad ones.
If you look at the history of Overhardt holdouts from the articles above all were resolved and only one player was moved, Kyle Turris, after the contract resolution. Johansen and Dubinksy were both eventually traded but they were part of deals for other reasons not out of spite due to the contract.
So here sits Trouba getting antsy, watching his team mates and friends struggle and knowing he can be a part of turning the Jets around. However he does not get to play where he wants? Perhaps he’s looking a Josh Morrissey playing alongside Byfuglien and doing quite well. If Trouba were in the lineup he would immediately take the top spot with Byfuglien on the PP and also with Myers or Enstrom on the PK while getting his own 20 minutes per game plus some of the near 30 minutes a night Byfugliena and Myers are playing. That much is obvious and no doubt he sees that too as he watches from the couch.
Some time ago I was told this anecdote by some one connected to the Jets. When the exit interviews last year happened with Maurice, Trouba was told he would be getting top pairing minutes in all situations. Then when Overhardt and Cheveldayoff met to discuss contract information it was believed no guarantee would be made on minutes or usage. There’s where the gap started if that’s even accurate. Why would the coach say one thing and the GM something different? This isn’t the Trump Pence campaign.
After a long-winded analysis and history of the situation what exactly might be changing? It’s important to understand history as it often explains why things are as they are. One more history lesson to go though. Back in the late fall or early winter, Tim Campbell of the Winnipeg Free Press and now of NHL.com had an article about the cost to sign Byfuglien, Scheifele, Ladd and Trouba. In that article it was suggested that Trouba’s camp was looking for anywhere in the 6-7 million dollar per year range. A laughable amount then and now considering the player no one would trade straight up for Trouba, Hampus Lindholm, just signed for an AAV of 5.25 million. If this issue was about money that leverage is gone in Winnipeg and beyond. If it’s about usage and role, what other team would Trouba immediately step into and take the top spot on the right side?
With youth in the Jets lineup and the quiet, yet consistent, reservation to the results by taking this course, taking back anything but what the Jets need makes no sense. Overhardt is likely finding this out now as are the regular insider pundits. The leverage Overhardt thought he had is leaving, and gaining speed as it exits. Trouba is likely seeing this and his urge to play is now possibly in his best interest and he’s letting certain people know.
In fact it’s believed that certain people who have worked closely with Trouba since his professional debut are now in full mode to prepare for his return. With any player, particularly ones with a ‘brand’ they have a team that steps into gear for the player. Trouba’s is in motion and it’s not happening outside of Winnipeg, it’s happening here. The suggestion as it was said to me two days ago was this:
Trouba will be back within two weeks with the Jets. Contract details being finalized and he’s getting ready to go. Just spoke with person he works with.
So why not say that at the beginning Tessier?
That’s an easy one, because if I put that there what context is it taken? The most intriguing part of this situation was Overhardt trying to frame the issue as something about role/usage but was it really that or just leverage to get more money?
Overhardt’s past history suggests that he is only working for money for his client, but Trouba’s situation is different, he’s sought after but not at any price. Clearly no team with a comparable player the Jets wanted was willing to part with said player believing Trouba made them better. That is what really needs to be understood. Overhardt has now had a clear message of where his client’s value is and he’s playing chess against the grandmaster of patience, Kevin Cheveldayoff. This issue is a stalemate, but only for what the request was, a trade to another team for a specific role. What GM would guarantee that?
So now you have a player who wants to play and has no other option than to work a deal based around what the CBA allows. I’ve been on record saying that Trouba’s return to the Jets would not happen, that ‘the ship has sailed’. To be clearer that statement was based on his camp not wanting to be here but when all your options run out things change.
If Trouba has been suppressed in Winnipeg and will be such a value to another team why aren’t they stepping up to get him? Why are they not offering what Chevy wants and then getting ready to pay what Trouba wants? The answer is pretty simple- the market conditions are not there with cap space, budgets and assets. The Jets knew this and held fast regardless of the roster or the results. Cheveldayoff new the second he landed the 2nd overall pick in he 2016 that he was in the driver’s seat. They knew they could not get Lindholm or any other 22-24 year old defence man for Trouba because teams don’t trade those guys.
So what happens next? If everything is as it’s been presented this tactic by Overhardt was about money., about getting more for his client. Overhardt probably wanted to take a bridge deal so that after Trouba could go to arbitration and then become a UFA after but the Jets, as allowed by the CBA have wanted to prevent that. Overhardt demands more money and the Jets won’t pay because it’s not in alignment with the market. Overhardt could have solicited an offer sheet too but again, no team wanted to pony up the cost or had the assets, or wanted to risk a similar attack.
Expect a 6 year deal with a similar AAV to Lindholm (how great was this timing!) but with a bit more due to being in Winnipeg. Would an AAV of 5.65 be too hard to swallow? However, also expect Trouba to be open to playing alongside Byfuglien now that he sees how great Morrissey is doing with far less defensive pedigree in his game.
The wheels are in motion and based on who has been talking about it I’d say there’s an 85% chance Trouba is wearing a Jets uniform sooner than later.
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • 
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