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Game Preview- Canucks and Blackhawks |
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It's easy to look at the Vancouver Chicago series and compare stats and personnel in an effort to establish advantage for either team. I have done that and I have also read John's blog and agree with almost everything he writes in regards to this series.
The numbers don't lie, the Hawks are a good team who have earned their home ice advantage. The difference in the regular season success between the two teams is 3 wins and 3 OT losses for 9 points. It's not a lot but more importantly it's only 3 wins.
The post season is a different beast though and right now I think it's hard to gauge who came out on top after the first round. Both teams won in six games and faced situations where they could have been perilously close to elimination. To take it another step I don't know
if either team is further ahead in so called 'experience'. Although the Canucks as a team have been through more than the young Hawks, last year's conference finals is a huge 'deep end' experience for the Hawks and they now have Hossa and Madden.
In my view this series lies on what the players create and how they respond to the intangibles which always show up in critical post season games.
When I look at the Hawks defense I see a better top 4 and a more skilled 6 than Vancouver has. I don't hand the series over to the Hawks based on that observation but it pause for thought. When the games get close I think that the Hawks have a d core who will respond better in frantic situations than the Canucks group. I feel that group will make more of difference against Vancouver forwards than Vancouver defense on Hawk forwards.
It's not science but if hockey were science I think some one would have made a lot of money perfecting it by now.
The challenge with this series is that one team's strength compares and competes against the other's. I clearly think Vancouver has an advantage with skill and diversity in the forwards but becuase of how the line up can be adjusted and revamped on the fly. Compared to Chicago's forwards it seems to me the Vancouver forwards are improving and finding ways to develop chemistry. I don't think Chicago has challenges but I do think the team has struggled with chemistry at times and has not always been able to change it up and get quick results. There may only have been six goal difference in goals for between the Canucks and Hawks but I prefer a club with 6 25 goal scorers. In the post season in the same # of games played it's 25 to 17 in favour of Vancouver. Putting the puck in the net is key and I will always be
biased to a team who scores a lot of goals by committee.
Goaltending is a controversial point between these clubs when measuring advatange and trying to predict success. Niemi has had the better stats and despite the smaller sample size they are still good. Don't forget the 1-0 shut out in Vancouver- that game was a clinic and
I'm sure he has more than a few left in him.
Where I see this comparrison becoming difficult to measure is the play under duress. It's hard to know who will perform. Although Luongo has won Olympic gold we all know that in two huge games he has lost focus at key times. Niemi does not carry that baggage. The series against LA showed the best and worst of Luongo thankfully it appears the worst has been put to bed... But we can never be sure.
If I had to play one game and I had to pick a keeper and my choices were Luongo and Niemi I would take Lou 9 times out of 10. In this series I don't, as Niemi benefits from his defense as much as Luongo does and that Hawk defense will help make any goaltender better not just Niemi. All he has to do is play well where I think Luongo will have to play god like at times.
I've mentioned intangibles a few times and in my view this is where the series outcome lies- who can convert on the intangibles opportunities? By having such well matched teams I think the unpredictable elements and which team seizes them will determine the winner. The old adage may be that you make your own luck but this series will be defined who steps up and that has nothing to do with luck. All season the Canucks have had players step up... There are the usual suspects but there has always been some on when the chips are down and that continues in this series. It's also why I say Vancouver in 5.
Enjoy the series, win or lose I know in will as I doubt it goes anything like most envision and one team is left scratching it's head in the aftermath. That why I think it will be a short series.
Vancouver Canucks Blogger • 
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