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Can the Jets be 8 pts better this season? |
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Are the Jets capable of being 8 points better this season and does more need to happen in order for them to make the playoffs?
It's a simple question and one I seemed to get all the time now that I am in the dog days of summer. Friends, readers and other ask what I think the Jets will get in points and if that's enough to make the playoffs. The answer is 'sure'.
What is below is the 8th seed in the west via points and where the Jets finished in relation.
2016-17 Nashville 94 Pts Winnipeg 87
2015-16 Minnestoa 87pts Winnipeg 78
2014-15 Winnipeg 99 pts 8th seed
2013-14 Dallas 91 pts Winnipeg 84
Ignore lockout
*comparing Wpg/Atl to Western Conference*
2011-12 LA 95 pts Winnipeg 84 pts
2010-11 Chicago 97 Atlanta 80 pts
2009-10 Colorado 95 Atlanta 83 pts
Since the Jets inaugural season in Winnipeg they have gone from being a team that sits 12-15 points out of the playoff picture to one that is 7-10 points out or scraping in. It's not a huge amount of improvement but it's moving in the right direction. Whether that is fast enough is an entirely different question.
The question now becomes can they close that gap of 7-10 points and how will hey do it?
First and foremost simply closing the game may not be enough. If the Jets can get themselves to 97 points it could be like three season ago where they needed 99 points. Much of the future depends on what other teams do as well, or better said, how other teams do.
If you were to look at the difference between Nashville and Winnipeg last year in terms of how they earned their points it looked like this.
Nashville +1 win= 2 points
Nashville +5 OTL= 5 points
Jets fans are betting that because of adding Mason, trading Stuart out for Kulikov, having a healthy Myers and a stable forward group that was top ten in scoring last year they can squeak into either the 7th or 8th spot. Perhaps it's higher and perhaps not at all.
If this is the case, the deck chairs have to move a bit around the Jets as well so the first question is who below them stays there?
LA
Dallas
Arizona
Vancouver
Colorado
(Vegas)
This was the order of finish behind Jets and let's add Vegas in there too now. All these teams get to pound on Vegas and will probably be positive in points agains them. So who moves up?
I'm betting on Arizona making the biggest leap to about 85-ish and still not enough to topple that magical mark of 94- last year's cut off line. Dallas will be a close second or perhaps more.
The next question is who falls out?
Looking at you San Jose and I'm raising my eyebrow at St. Louis and Chicago. Now here's the issue they may not have to fall far enough if one or two teams really surge. With Chris Mason in net and the Jets benefitting from a league average save percentage are they 7 points better than last year or more?
The Jets were the fourth worsts team in the west for goals against last year allowing 256 but they were second in goals for scoring 249. There was only one team in the entire league who made the playoffs last were with a negative goal differential and that was Ottawa at -2.
After Ottawa last season, since the Jets came back to Winnipeg there have only been 2 teams since the top 3 plus wild card method was adopted that made the post season with a negative goal differential. Detroit both times. Since 2011 including the old top 8 format only three more teams have made the playoffs with negative goal differential Minnesota, Florida, and Washington. That latter two benefitting from winning the old decrepit south east division.
The average goal differential for the playoff teams in the west last year was 25.62 if the Jets could even move up to half of that number is it enough to get 7 more points?
Therein lies the challenge and maybe the most basic look at what needs to happen in results to change the fortunes on the Jets as it relates to playoff appearance. The other is man games lost as the Jets were in the top 5 for number of man games lost. Staying healthy is paramount to success this season if anything is going to change and that has to be weighing on the GMs mind as well.
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • 
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