The Jackets had an up and down January. They went 5-4-1 which isn’t bad but considering the team had a softer schedule in the month it wasn’t ideal. In that time the team has slipped from second in the Metro to fourth and into the first wild card spot. With 58 points they are one point up on Philadelphia and the Islanders, two points up on Carolina and just three points up on the Rangers who are in the bottom of the division. Above them, Columbus is three back of Pittsburgh, four of New Jersey and seven back from Washington who sit in top spot.
The Jacket have three division games this week and with how close everything is, these games are extremely important. With all the divisional games this month, this could make or break the season. Sure the playoffs don’t start until April but if the Jackets lay an egg here this could be it for their playoff hopes. After February the Jackets play just three more divisional games.
This is a hugely important month and things have not got off to a good start. The Jackets were swept in both games this past weekend, including a loss to the Islanders. This week things don’t get any easier, as the Jackets have a home and home with the divisional leading Capitals with the first game tonight at Nationwide Arena and then Friday in Washington. If that wasn’t tough enough the Jackets have a back-to-back as they play the second place Devils on Saturday.
Washington has been a good team but they are a far cry from the buzz saw they have had in the past. The currently sit 10th in the league in goals with 159, after finishing third and second in the two seasons prior. Their power play which has been the envy of the entire league for years, has not hit its stride yet this year, currently clicking at 20.2%, 18th in the league. Despite that this is still not a unit you want to take lightly, especially considering the Blue Jackets 27th ranked penalty kill. Their possession stats have also declined this season.
Natural Stat Trick has them as a 48% Corsi team at 5 on 5, 25th in the league.
Even crazier than that is the Capitals sit last in the NHL in high danger Corsi for percentage. At 5 on 5 the Capitals have controlled just 43.16% of the high danger chances. Scoring chances aren’t much better, the Caps have a 47.70% scoring chance percentage 24th in the league. The Capitals have been successful in spite of all this because they can do what the Jackets cannot and that is put the puck in the back of the net. The Capitals have been able to convert on the limited chances they have had. They lead the NHL with a 9.31 shooting percentage at 5 on 5.
The reason for that and the one thing that’s stayed the same for Washington has been Alexander Ovechkin. He continues to the offensive force driving the Capitals. He leads the team with 56 points and leagues the league with 32 goals, the only player so far to hit 30. He’s someone you obviously need to be aware of whenever he is on the ice. If I’m John Tortorella I’m lining up Seth Jones and Zach Werenski whenever I can against the Ovi line. See if you can get him out of his element so to speak and playing in the defensive zone.
The wins and the points make Washington look better than they really are. This is a team whose underlying numbers don’t support what they have done. Even just looking at what these two teams have done since December, a time in which the Blue Jackets have played very poorly, Columbus still come out ahead of the Caps. They just don’t have the wins to show for it. These are two winnable games, the Jackets have to control the game and keep the Capitals in their own end as much as possible. The Jackets need to convert on the chances they get, Washington won’t get many but they will convert on the ones they do get. That quick strike offense means they are never out of a game. Sergei Bobrovsky and the defencemen will need to be ready to play a full 60 minutes.
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