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Hedman Emerging as a Norris-Quality Defender

May 28, 2014, 6:41 PM ET [119 Comments]
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
If you haven’t been watching the Tampa Bay Lightning over the last two seasons, you’ve missed the emergence of a Norris-quality defenseman. Since being drafted second overall in 2009, Victor Hedman has followed a steady, upward trajectory on his way to becoming one of the league’s premier blueliners.

When pundits and prognosticators were predicting who would be nominated for the Norris Trophy this year, the same names popped up over and over again. Duncan Keith, Shea Weber, Drew Doughty, PK Subban, and Zdeno Chara, among a small handful of others, dominated the headlines. The nominees, as announced in late April, wound up being Keith, Weber, and Chara.

The purpose of this blog isn’t to say that any one of those three nominated players is somehow undeserving of the honor; in fact, the opposite is true. Every player I just listed, including the three nominees, had a fantastic 2013-14 season. Instead, the purpose of this blog is to illustrate that one player, Victor Hedman, deserved to be in that aforementioned conversation based on his play, and especially his even strength minutes.

Aside from the odd mention here or there, Hedman’s name was noticeably absent from the Norris conversation. Perhaps it’s because he is ‘stuck’ playing in a non-traditional market, or perhaps it’s because people are biased against Swedish defenders. There may be a *hint* of sarcasm in the latter suggestion, but I don’t think the former is all that unreasonable. Regardless, Hedman deserves far more attention that he currently receives.

In today’s NHL, we often take the word ‘best’ to mean the player who brought the most offense. On the surface, that player would be Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson. With 74 points tallied this season, Karlsson ran away with the defenseman scoring title; the next closest player was Duncan Keith, who tallied 61 points of his own. Hedman, for his part, had 55 in 75 games.

What’s perhaps more interesting, though, is the even strength production analysis. Recall that Hedman really didn’t see much power play time until midway through the campaign.

Hedman’s five-on-five P/60 ratio (i.e. the number of points he tallied per sixty minutes of ice time) was a sparkling 1.60. For context, consider that Hedman’s 1.60 was the best amongst defenders in the league. Erik Karlsson, the 74 point man, takes the Silver medal in that category, as he scored 1.56 points per sixty at five-on-five. Yes, you’re reading that right. Hedman brought more offense at even strength than all three Norris Trophy nominees.

Moreover, as Kyle Alexander pointed out on Twitter, it’s not as though Hedman was picking up garbage points either. His first-assist rate was all-world, and again tops in the league among defenders at five-on-five. Contrast that with the production of both Duncan Keith and Matt Niskanen, two other high-scoring defenders, who feasted on secondary apples. Simply put, Hedman was driving the team’s offense when he was on the ice more often than not.

That point is exemplified further by Hedman’s point share, which is the percentage of on-ice goals on which he recorded a point. 58.2% of the time the Lightning scored at five-on-five with Hedman on the ice, Hedman recorded a point. If you guessed that said percentage was the high watermark for NHL defensemen this year, you’d be right.

Of course, there is more to hockey (and life) than goals and assists. Not only was Hedman an integral part of Tampa’s ability to put the puck in the net, but he was also a possession driver like few others on the Bolts roster. With a measurably positive Corsi for percentage relative to his team at five on five (+4.9%), it’s fair to say that Hedman made the already impressive Lightning that much better. His rating in that category was good enough for 11th best in the league, behind quality names like Mark Giordano and PK Subban.

As outlined above, Hedman’s underlying numbers are more than just impressive; they’re elite. With that said, there’s more to the big Swede than the numbers can show. His calmness, poise, and vision all combine to create a player who is set to dominate the league for years to come. While many outside Tampa have been quick to call the former second overall pick a bust, anyone who’s been watching this guy knows that he’s something special. Underrated doesn’t begin to describe seventy-seven.

I’m not going to sit here and say that Victor Hedman deserves the Norris Trophy this season, but I will say that he deserved far more consideration than most people think. Don’t be surprised if you see his name in the conversation, and perhaps on the nominee list, next season, and the season after that, and the season after that. This is a player who has established himself as a bona fide number one defender in the National Hockey League. At only 23 years of age, Hedman still has plenty of good hockey ahead of him.

The best part for Lightning fans? Steve Yzerman has Hedman locked into a contract worth $4MM per season until 2016-17. That just might be the best bargain deal in the league.

As always, thanks for reading.
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