First, in the name of full disclosure, let me be clear that I have access to no inside information and am basing this on intuition alone and not a rumor or inside information source.

Erik Cole is 1 of the bigger names that will be bandied about over the next couple weeks leading up the trade deadline. It makes perfect sense. He is an unrestricted free agent next summer, and after having a very up and down (probably with more down) season in Edmonton, it seems very unlikely that Cole and/or Edmonton will want to continue the relationship. So it makes sense for Edmonton to get something for him. And despite his mediocre 08-09 season at least in terms of scoring, he brings something that fits very well on any number of playoff-bound or playoff-hopeful teams. Cole is a pure version of a power forward who brings size, a physical edge and hitting, but he brings it in the post-lockout NHL goodness of a big guy that skates incredibly well. There just are not many power forwards who bring that.

So with a number of potential bidders and possibly some willing to overpay, how do I see it possible that Cole makes a return to Carolina via a trade by GM Rutherford who already sent him away once and is not 1 to make many of the expensive blockbuster deadline deals?

There are 3 parts:
1) Why does it make sense from a Canes viewpoint?
2) How could the Canes win what could be an expensive bidding war?
3) How can the Canes make it worthwhile for Edmonton?

From a Canes viewpoint, it makes a ton of sense. First, it is important to understand why Cole was traded to begin with. There were no problems between Cole and the organization. It was not some falling out that prompted the trade. It was 2 business matters: 1) Cole was due to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. As the rare power forward who can skate commodity, Cole was (and still is) likely to be overpaid next summer in terms of $ per year and number of years. Cole's 1 huge breakout year in 05-06 makes him look like a $5-6M/year player, but a closer look suggests any other year he is probably pegged close to right at $4ish million per year. Rutherford figured he only had 1 more year of Cole anyway and could get a huge return for him. In getting Pitkanen, I think he did pretty well. 2) Rutherford got backed into a bit of a corner on the blue line. It had been 3 years straight where Caroline entered the summer free agent frenzy really needing to add at least 1 top-tier defenseman. He did manage to get Corvo last spring, but after years of trying to get by for another season with guys nearing retirement, he finally had no choice but to do something when Wesley retired, Hedican left and Commodore was traded for the same reason as Cole (inability to win a bidding war on the open market). So there is no secret story that makes it a bad thing for Cole to return.

And in terms of roster, the Canes have a gaping hole right now that Cole fits in. With concussion-like (I have not heard it called a concussion officially, but it is the head/dizziness kind of stuff in that category.) problems for Walker and no clear timetable for return and now Williams out for at least 4 weeks, the Canes are down 2 right wings. Throw in the current forward mix including newly added Jussi Jokinen and there is a big lack of size and physical play amongst the Canes forwards playing the big minutes. Cole fills a right wing slot and brings the size and physical play that is missing many nights when the Canes need more garbage goals.

The issue of Cole leaving this summer is still there, but given the 08-09 campaign there is even a slightly better chance that Rutherford could keep him longer term. For himself and the rest of the NHL to see, he took a spin on another team's top line without that much success. Just maybe that brings his price down a little and just maybe after a taste of another team, he decides that he really wants to stay here, feels wanted, gives up a small discount to do so and gets a no-trade clause in return. The bigger story is the fit for 08-09, but maybe this helps Rutherford pay a little more.

2) How do the Canes win a bidding war? If Cole becomes priority 1 for too many teams, then I think my longshot scenario implodes. Only once has GM Jim Rutherford spent big at the trade deadline and that was a team that was in the handful of frontrunners to win it all. If 3-4 big market teams want to bid a bunch of picks and prospects to get Cole, the Rutherford backs down and does either nothing or smaller stuff.

But IF, the other teams get all bogged down going for the huge fish like Bouwmeester, Lecavalier, maybe even someone like Pronger, etc. and those stories play out very late in the trade deadline game, just maybe the Canes sneak in the back door.

3) How could this make sense for Edmonton? Edmonton is not a pure seller. They are a team very much in the playoff mix. As such, a combination of useable players for 08-09 combined with less of the future stuff might work well for them. With Visnovsky down for awhile and arguably some need on the blueline even before that injury, the Canes could be a good partner. If Seidenberg continues to play well, he could be a decent 08-09 rental for Edmonton. Kaberle might be a harder sell with his contract going into 09-10, but he even has the potential to fill Visnovsky's powerplay point man spot. Then you need to either throw in a forward to replace Cole or a decent pick or prospect. IF the Canes are ready to punt on Eaves and/or are desperate enough to make the playoffs this year, he would give Edmonton another NHL-ready wing to slot into Cole's place who despite a low-scoring 08-09 does have offensive upside. Someone like Larose (also an unrestricted free agent this summer) could also provide an NHL-ready right wing with playoff experience.

So my longshot goes like this:
-First, if there are no huge bidders for Cole (most likely because the big players are tied up going for the biggest fish).
-And if Edmonton is sure they will not resign him (seems probable) and wants to get something in return.
-And if Edmonton wants to play for 08-09 not just futures such that they will take players instead of real high picks and prospects.
-Then just maybe providing a decent 08-09 defenseman like Seidenberg plus either a mid-round pick or a decent 08-09 forward replacement like Eaves gets it done.

Edmonton gets some future for a reasonable price in that Eaves is signed for a couple years. With the play of Carson, Borer and Rodney, Seidenberg can be replaced and is likely not in the mix for 09-10 anyway. Eaves is a decent player and not at all someone that I would give up on, but you have to give something good to get something good, and I think his role as a 4th-liner despite auditions and openings on higher lines makes him expendable if it gets the Canes into the playoffs.

So I admit that this is a longshot given the number of potential bidders for Cole, but I also think it makes some sense and as far as longshot predictions does have a path of possibility.

Go Canes!

Join the Discussion: » Comments » Post New Comment

» Maple Leafs and Hurricanes: Comparison in rebuilding strategies

» Snarly Hurricanes vs. Flyers match up set for Saturday

» Canes treading water - Will they eventually drown or swim?

» Solid first half of week tees 'make up' time at home for the weekend

» Hurricanes at Red Wings -- Canes look claw even for road trip