First, as I have said before, what I express here is speculation, intuition, opinion, etc. I do NOT have access to any inside information nor do I have any contacts that get me access to legitimate rumors.
So yesterday the Canes Twittersphere heated up following a spot by Canes GM Jim Rutherford on 99.9 The Fan yesterday afternoon. The summary version is that the Canes are reasonably close to signing a big name free agent, but apparently the need to swing some kind of trade first.
This can be interpreted to mean exactly, the Canes might sign another player who we don’t know who it is IF they ultimately decide they want to play for the Canes and IF the price can be worked out, but only IF the Canes do some kind of financial move though it is unclear exactly why by trading an unnamed player.
First, here is the factual context:
--The Canes have about $5.4M left under the salary cap with 6 defensemen (could be done), 2 goalies (could be done) and 10 forwards (obviously not done) on 1-way NHL contracts. Not included in the forward count are a number of forwards (Lindholm, Rask, Dalpe, Nash, etc) who will be competing for a roster spot or 2.
--When he signs Lindholm’s entry level contract is going to show up at CapGeek and similar as some $2M+ looking contract. But the real math is that it is something like $1.3M committed (if he plays at NHL level) + the standard set of entry-level performance bonuses. When it is all said and done, most players collect some amount of games played, goals scored, etc. type of bonuses but much of the total is also for finishing as a finalist for the Hart Trophy, 1st-3rd team all-star, etc. that usually are not reached. (Someone help me if they understand differently, but…) The new CBA allows teams to sort of not count the bonuses in the current year since they are so uncertain. Then at the end of the year, if a team has room left under the cap the bonuses are counted in the current year. If there is no room left in the current year, they basically become a deduction from next year.
==> So where you end up is that Lindholm can be counted as low as his $1.3Mish base salary for this year if the team wants to. All of the other youth options to fill out a spot or 2 are less than that.
Iif you count the most expensive possible option (and maybe most likely) option Lindholm as 1 of the 2 remaining slots, you are down to about $4.1M of salary left. Of the remaining “big name free agents”, my guess is that Jagr would command the highest salary. He earned $4.5M last year on a 1-year deal in Dallas. My wild guess is that he will have to settle for a little less given that no one jumped head over heels after him in the first few days of free agency. My guess is something like $3.5-$4.0M for 1 year. I cannot imagine the Canes paying more than that for any of the other players who could potentially be a “big name free agent.”
So it seems like the Canes could barely squeeze under the cap with a big signing and 1 more player to fill out a roster. But it would limit flexibility if the team wanted to carry more than 20 players and also if it needed to make a trade later to fill a hole.
Question 1: But might Rutherford be trying to save some money to be able to carry an extra player or 2?
Answer: Possibly, but the math is strange. If the Canes had a $2M player or 2 on the roster, then maybe Rutherford would trade a depth $2M player and backfill the spot with a depth $700K rookie therefore making room to carry another player or 2 on the roster. But the Canes really don’t have any medium-priced depth players. They have expensive players like EStaal, Semin, Ruutu, Skinner, Gleason, Pitkanen, etc. and they have players who are already real close to the same price as any replacement (i.e. Dwyer at $900k, Westgarth at $750k, etc.). I just do not see how it would help much to trade one of the expensive players to add a free agent. It more or less becomes a trade where you give up 1 top 6ish forward via trade just to sign another as a free agent. It makes even less sense to trade a defenseman (unless the Canes are to my surprise looking to sign Hainsey or someone as an immediate replacement). You would be working your way back down to 5 defenseman unless you again just swap a defenseman for a defenseman.
Question 2: Could this just be more of an internal budget thing NOT a salary cap thing?
Answer: Maybe. As others have pointed out, Welsh despite being a questionable #10-15 on the forward depth chart is on a 1-way contract that pays $1M next year (with $850k cap hit) regardless of he is in the NHL or AHL. Peters is also on a 1-way contract and now seems destined to make $500k+ in the AHL next season with the Khudobin signing. So maybe Rutherford needs to unload Welsh’s contract to offset a little bit of the out of pocket costs. Welsh’s departure could cut the out-of-pocket cost in the AHL (if that is where he ends up) by a significant $850-880k. And if his slot ultimately in the NHL is taken by someone like Dalpe, Nash, Sutter, etc. there would also be about a $300k salary cap savings which would also offer a tiny bit of salary cap flexibility.
Question 3: Is it all just marketing posturing for some other reason?
Answer: It seems unlikely, but for lack of much real hockey stuff to debate during the dog days of summer, what about this? What if Rutherford decided he wanted to trade a big, risky contract like Skinner’s for some financial flexibility and risk reduction going forward? But Skinner is a fan favorite and there would be a mini revolt by a significant portion of the fan base. The outcry would be even greater if you trade him for a some decent but non-name players that make people say “We traded Jeff Skinner for who?” But if the reason you traded Jeff Skinner was because you had to financially to make it possible to sign a big name player (Jaromir Jagr would definitely qualify) to improve the roster, then just maybe the angered/disappointed fans move on a little more quickly.
There are times when I feel like I have a decent idea of what might make sense. This situation is far from being one of them. Per my blog yesterday, the Canes lineup seems to be screaming for at least 1 more veteran forward addition (not necessarily high end but some kind of proven help). That makes sense. But what exactly Rutherford is up to with regard to clearing $ and who he might be trying to trade is a mystery to me.
If you forced me to commit to something, I would go with:
1) I doubt that either move (new signing or traded player) involves a defenseman unless there is another shoe to drop after that even. Rutherford seemed reasonably happy with his blue line adds, and any kind of trade by itself leaves the Canes short and any kind of free agent signing by itself makes the roster unworkable for filling out the forward lines.
2) My best guess is that he is talking more about internal budget than salary cap, so maybe he needs to unload Welsh and possibly even Peters (getting a depth goalie back in return) to possibly cut about $1.4M of potential out-of-pocket costs from the Charlotte lineup.
3) Regardless of what Rutherford said (it was very fuzzy and open to interpretation), I think the target is Jaromir Jagr. I put Brenden Morrow who is exactly the kind of big, physical, sometimes mean player that Muller and the team kept harping about last season.
4) Jeff Skinner fans should continue to sleep okay. My conspiracy theory marketing ploy seems like the biggest long shot of the wide range of possibilities.
If nothing else, the Rutherford interview will fill up a few more days of a long summer leading up to real hockey. Timing could not be better this week with the draft 2 weeks ago, the free agent frenzy last week and the Canes rookie camp slated for real on-ice stuff next week.
For a quick heads up when I post a blog and/or to be part of the occasional Twitter banter follow me at CarolinaMatt63.
Go Canes!
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