First, I put up another 6-question mini-poll that went with yesterday's blog. The questions have to do with which Canes youth will make the team, not make the team, have the biggest impact, etc. You can find that HERE. I will post the results in a couple days.

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A couple weeks back I took a quick look specifically at the Carolina Hurricanes 2013-14 schedule. You can find that HERE.

This blog looks at the broader impact of realignment and the new schedule format on the Canes ongoing chance to make the playoffs from a bit of a math-based angle. Much has been made about the realignment and its impact on the Carolina Hurricanes chances to win its new division or even make the playoffs. On the surface, it makes sense. Let’s face it; the Southeast Division struggled to net 2 good teams to compete for the division title in most years. The old Atlantic Division teams that make up 5/8 of the Canes’ new Metropolitan Division are largely big market type of teams. And the weighting of the new schedule would seem to make for a tougher schedule.

But what does it really all mean? Is it really that much harder?

First, the short answer for those who wish to skip the math (which is below) is:

1) In terms of winning the division, it definitely became more difficult. The quality of the teams is better, and there are now 7 teams to beat out instead of 4. Simple math would say that the chance of winning the division decreased from 20% with 4 teams to 12.5% with 8 teams. One disclaimer is that it is now possible to finish 2nd in the new division (and 3rd overall) and get the same #3 seed that a Southeast Division championship might have netted in the 3 division format previously.

2) In terms of just making the playoffs, things are harder but not terribly so. I think the biggest difference is the simple addition of another team. Because of the uneven number of teams in each conference, the Canes must now beat out 8 teams instead of the previous 7 to make the playoffs. Simple math would say that the chance of making the playoffs decreased by 3.3% now having to be top 8 out of 16 (50%) versus previous top 8 out of 15 (53.3%). But otherwise, I am not sure the new division makes that much of a difference. If the Metropolitan Division proves stronger, the Canes will see themselves battling against mostly the same set of teams (division does not matter for the last couple spots) to win a #8 seed in the conference with the addition of Detroit and Columbus and the subtraction of Winnipeg.

3) The schedule with the new weighting is in fact more challenging and could be a bigger factor than the new division itself.

For those so desperate for any kind of Canes hockey news that they will read math, see below. (Someone please holler if I made any mistakes. I did not find the time check it.)

What does the realignment really mean in terms of schedule?

FEWER GAMES:
-- 11.7 fewer games against old Southeast Division teams (Wpg 6=>2; Fla 6=>3; Tam 6=>3; Was 6=>4.3).
-- 5.0 fewer games against old Northeast Division teams (Bos, Mon, Tor, Ott, Buff all 4=>3).

MORE GAMES:
-- 4.9 more games against new conference teams (Clu 1.2=>3.1; Det 1.2=>3).
-- 10.4 more games against Western Conference teams not counting Wpg (All 1.2=>2).
-- 1.5 more games against new division teams other than Clu and Was (Pit, NJ, NYR, NYI, Phi all 4=>4.3).

Grouping the increases and decreases in games you get:
-- The Canes lose 11.7 SE division games and replace them with a nearly equal 10.4 games against the other conference.
-- The Canes subtract 5.0 games against old NE division teams and replace them with 4.9 more games against new conference foes Detroit and Columbus.

When you net it out, the biggest effect schedule-wise is not so much the new division but rather the move to play each Western Conference team twice. While the Canes will obviously compete more in the standings against the new division opponents, the team will not actually see them that much more on the ice. And while I think the realignment does make things a bit more difficult overall, at the end of the day it still just comes down to playing good hockey and winning.

What say you Canes fans and hockey mathematicians? Did I miss something or goof on my math? Aside from being more difficult to win a bigger and more challenging division, did things really change that much in terms of climbing into the playoffs as a #7 or #8 seed?

For a quick heads up when I post a Canes blog or to be part of the occasional yammering on Twitter follow me at CarolinaMatt63.

Go Canes!
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