What I will be watching for in tonight's final preseason game against Buffalo will largely be dependent on the lineup and line combinations that I have not seen yet. My afternoon is all over the place, but if I find a few minutes to check in, I will add a game preview to this blog. ADDED GAME PREVIEW NOTES AT BOTTOM
If I were Kirk Muller (and I guess maybe Jim Rutherford for the last one)…
1) “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” That was my rationale for NOT getting creative and trying to strengthen other lines by separating Tlusty/EStaal/Semin. Watching players like Boychuk and Bowman play decent games with that duo but just not quite have the rapid speed hockey IQ of Tlusty cemented this for me. It is subtle skill that does not show up directly in any kind of stats, but Tlusty was just the perfect complement figuring out not just where he could get scoring chances but also where he needed to be to help create the chance for Semin to find a passing lane.
=> I realize that there are all kinds of other moving parts by virtue of injury and shortage of experienced NHL talent, but if Semin gets healthy, I would resist the temptation to break what is working to fix what is not.
2) Stay the course and give Jordan Staal a big challenge but within his comfort zone and with the right tools to be successful at it. I voted before the 2013 season to separate Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner into 2A and 2B lines of sorts, one a bit more focused on defense and the other scoring. My rationale was simply that their skill sets and weaknesses were just too strange of a mish mash. JStaal had come from a role where he was an elite checking line center on a line with solid and maybe more importantly predictable wings who mostly played things by the book and were suited for this defensive role. Jeff Skinner’s strength was raw offense and creativity often of the non-textbook variety. And in 2013, the two both had rough seasons mostly paired together and coming very close to being worst in the league in +/-. After a rough first year in Raleigh, if I were Muller I would make sure I put Jordan Staal in a role he was comfortable with surrounded by line mates capable of helping and give him goals that fit his experience and talents. The goal for Jordan Staal this season is to be the 2001-02 Rod Brind’Amour. In that season, Ron Francis’ 1st line led the offense and scoring and drove the power play. Rod Brind’Amour’s 2nd line had the primary challenge of playing as many of the difficult minutes (penalty kill, against the other team’s best line, defensive zone draws in the 3rd period of close games, etc.) as possible and simply trying to breakeven. Brind’Amour’s 55 points that season were not eye-popping by any stretch of the imagination and his plus 3 did not scream dominance. But he battled to even most nights neutralizing the other team’s best and putting the ball on the tee for a good night by the scoring line, a power play goal or 2 or even just a lucky break in the 3rd period to win a hockey game.
=> With injuries thinning out the depth a bit, one common approach is to top-load the talent on the top 2 lines and ride them as much as you can. This could suggest reuniting Skinner and JStaal. I vote to stay the course, put a solid veteran defensive player on JStaal’s right wing (probably either Dwyer or Dvorak with Gerbe on the other), challenge them to play breakeven hockey each night and forget about what that means in terms of scoring. It is not about scoring. It is about scoring relative to how much you give up.
3) Do not be influenced by the $ or the history. I think Brett Bellemore has played his way into the top 4. As a right shot, stay-home defenseman, he is a decent complement for Ron Hainsey who he was paired with Thursday night. Making decisions based on training camp can be dicey, as things often change quickly when the real games start. But what has been most striking to me in watching Bellemore compared to the veteran version of the Canes big stay-home defensemen is how much more mobile he is compared to them. I think that difference alone just offers such a leg up that will outweigh experience and anything else. Over the course of a long NHL season, there will always be ebbs and flows as players hit peaks and valleys, injuries impact the lineup, etc. I would not at all be surprised to see the veterans eventually rise up. But I at this point in time, I do not see how you do not get Brett Bellemore into the lineup. After yesterday's game I tweeted that Brett Bellemore will not see waivers. Borderline AHL/NHL forwards with potential are a dime a dozen. The Canes literally have a dozen players at this stage competing for spots this season. But solid defensive depth not in the form of expensive $2M+ veterans who are on the down slide of there career is a rare commodity. Because of this, even if Brett Bellemore does not play his way into the lineup, I think he will stay at the NHL level to avoid the risk of losing him on waivers on the way to Charlotte.
=> The Canes need to start playing desperate clawing for points in the standings before it is desperate. That means icing your best lineup. If you do not let the decision-making process get clouded by how you thought it was going to turn out, I think Bellemore is part of that best lineup at least for early October or until regular season pressure proves otherwise.
4) I am right where I started with Ryan Murphy. While I do see progress and do think he continues to have the potential to be a good NHL defenseman, I do not think it is now. More significantly, I think getting there is better served playing 20-22 minutes every night in the AHL versus playing some part-time limited specialist role in the NHL where he sees limited ice time and sheltered situations.
Even the one role that might have made sense in a “winning now is priority one and takes precedent over development” plan really has not worked out. Coming into camp many thought that now minus all of the offensive defenseman that Ryan Murphy could really help the power play. I keep reading things that suggest people drank the Kool-Aid on this, assumed it as truth and moved on. In watching the Canes power play with Murphy at the controls for much of it, I do not think this has proven out. In 15 minutes of power play time, Ryan Murphy has exactly 0 scoring points. The team has exactly 1 preseason power play goal, and that was an individual effort where Semin walked off the boards when a defender gave him too much space and just lasered a shot beating the goalie. Murphy’s skating has helped gain entry to the zone with the man advantage, but the hope that he could step in to the quarterback role inside the offensive zone just has not worked out. He is still learning in this role. He is at the level where he can handle and move the puck quickly enough to avoid the pressure that the good PK forwards apply. But he has not reached the level where he can slow the game down and creatively distribute the puck (versus quickly just moving it to the next guy in the chain) and create scoring chances. From the games I have seen, I cannot recall a pass through the box or other play where Murphy created 1 of those grade A scoring chances on the man advantage.
=> So combining #3 where Bellemore finds a spot and #4 where Murphy’s development is better served rounding out his game to be more than a specialist, I would invest in Ryan Murphy’s long-term by sending him to Charlotte. The strange Checkers schedule that has almost no hockey for the first few weeks of October does make it possible for him to stay in Raleigh a bit longer before heading there, but I think that is where he should spend much of 2013-14.
This is a bit of an aside and maybe a moot point short-term because injuries are not creating a chance to tinker with things in practice, but I continue to think that moving Semin to a point position on the power play could be interesting. The power play is going to run through him anyway. Though I think he is a perfect player to distribute the puck from the half wall, for whatever reason, that version never really clicked over a 48-game run in 2013. And now the team is short on power play-skilled defenseman. Semin is comfortable carrying the puck and skating it into the zone. He has a good shot to turn it loose when the shooting lane is there. He is heady passer and playmaker and skilled at distributing the puck. And he has the straight line speed needed to chase down the occasional breakaway the other direction. Unless the current version of the power play looks better soon, I would at least give it a look.
If I can find a break later in the day, I will put up a game preview/”what I’m watching” for tonight’s final preseason game at PNC Arena versus Buffalo. UPDATED BELOW
So the Canes depth chart shows today's lineup as Tlusty/EStaal/Dvorak, Gerbe/JStaal/Dwyer, Bowman/Nash/Dalpe, Terry/Sutter/Westgarth -- Faulk/Hainsey, Sekera/Murphy, Harrison/Komisarek -- Ward starting in net.
What I'm watching:
1) Continuation for Cam Ward. I get the fact that Ward can use the ice time after having the shortened 2013 cut even shorter by injury. He left yesterday's game on a feel-good note both for himself and his team. So the risk is jeopardizing that tonight. Personally, I would let him work through the mental game prep and then if he is playing well pull him at the halfway point. The preparation and ice time helps, but the top priority is to enter the games that count on the right note.
2) Defense pairs. I would interpret Bellemore not being in the lineup to mean that he is staying as I suggested previously, but that is just my wild guess. Most interesting is the separation of Faulk and Sekera. If my memory is right, this is the first time they have been apart pretty much since the beginning of training camp.
3) The power play. I think the penalty kill is rounding into form. There are still some questions in terms of who is playing with whom and maybe more options than spots on the blue line, but the right players have logged a good amount of ice time and looked good in the process. There are plenty of experienced options on defense and with Riley Nash looking pretty good in this role seemingly enough at forward. But the other half of the special teams is very much a work in process. The Canes have mustered a single power play goal in preseason and that was the result of an individual play where Semin walked off the boards and beat the goalie by himself. Minus Semin and Skinner again, I am not sure how much can be figured out today, but hopefully we begin to see a little better performance at least in terms of entering the zone with control of the puck and getting it moving in the zone. I keep waiting to see if Muller will tinker a bit with a forward at the point given the lack of pure power play defenseman and arguably anyone with any experience playing the puck distributor/quarterback role at the NHL level. I would look for 2 things: 1) Any tinkering with who plays point especially any forward trials; 2) If Muller tries to simplify things a bit going the bodies to the net and fire it in their route with players like JStaal, Tlusty, etc.
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