If you are catching up, you can find my game recap from Monday night's loss to Pittsburgh
HERE.
First, by writing a reasonably positive blog summarizing the month of October, I do not mean to look past or candy coat the current situation. The 3-game losing streak stinks. The fact that the Canes pretty much deserved all 3 losses makes it worse. And some of the regular problems both controllable (lackluster efforts by top players and an inability to play a decent 1st period) and uncontrollable (losing both NHL goalies to injury, losing arguably the only player playing at the top of his game in Jeff Skinner to injury) are worrisome. But when you net out the results, remember that it is a long 82-game season that will see highs and lows and consider where the team is and less how it got there, I think October was a decent month.
First, it is important to consider the starting point:
--The Canes pretty much revamped the blue line with 4 of the 8 players being new to the team (realizing that Bellemore and Murphy did play a handful of games at the NHL level last year).
--The end of training camp that should have included fine tuning for the regular season was more of a injury list fire drill with a number of key players missing the last 2 preseason games and only returning to practice a few days before the start of the season.
=> Based on the lead in to the season, I considered it a real possibility that the team would take a couple weeks to even get up to speed.
The challenge:
--If you worked the standings through Tuesday’s games to select playoff teams in the new format, the Canes have played 10 of their 12 games against teams that would be in the playoffs right now. The opponents have a combined record of 80-48-13 which averages out to roughly 7-4-1 per team.
--If you prefer to use last year’s numbers instead of this year’s small sample size, you get about the same answer. In their 1st 12 games, the Canes have played 4 games against the final 4 teams from the 2013 playoffs plus another 5 against playoff teams (so 9 of 12 against last year’s playoff teams).
=> The Canes have played a very tough stretch of schedule full of elite teams thus far in the 2013-14 season and also based on last season.
The results:
The 4-5-3 record is not scintillating. And over the course of the full season, it is not a pace to make the playoffs, BUT…
--Right now, it is good enough for 3rd place in the Metro Division which is a playoff spot. Yes, the pace will need to be better to actually win that spot at the end of the season, but through 12 games, the Canes are in a better position relative to other teams than they were to start the season.
--The point total itself really is not that bad. I think a reasonable target even with optimism to start the season would have been about 12 points (a point per game) in October to shake off the stink of 2012-13 and build some confidence, get the volume of new players acclimated and assemble a bottom 6 forward set, and get through a challenging stretch of schedule without digging a hole.
=> If you take snapshot in time and ignore the “how we got there” and “what is the latest trend”, I think the Canes are in a very good place in terms of the playoff chase exiting October.
There are of course 2 keys to embracing any optimism right now:
1) The team does need to start playing better, as the quality of play is currently headed in the wrong direction and will not yield a spot in the playoffs.
2) To say that treading water is good enough for a tough stretch of schedule only holds true if you can then capitalize on more favorable stretches of schedule.
And that is exactly what we are up to right now. I would not say that the November schedule is particularly easy. Over the 14 games, the Canes see Boston twice, red hot Tampa, Colorado and Anaheim and some other teams playing well. But the team also plays 9 of 14 games at home. The hope is that 3 more days off will also yield a couple more healthy players and get closer to have Anton Khudobin back in net.
After the past 3 games, it is really hard to see it and even harder to feel it, but I still say that when you net out October was a decent, not great, start to the season. The glass is currently half full, but with the past few games it is just hard to focus on what is left in the glass as opposed to the mess that spilled out over the past 5 days and 3 games.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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