For those who did not catch it yet and care, you can find my recap/notes from the Canes big 5-3 win over the Sabres on Thursday night
HERE.
For the Carolina Hurricanes, the 2013-14 preseason started with 2 very different situations at forward and on defense. On defense, the Canes finished the 2012-13 season horribly with a porous defense and struggles in goal. The summer saw wholesale changes that were increased further with the late news that Joni Pitkanen would be able to play. There were a lot of question marks but also a lot of reinforcements with the addition of Andrej Sekera, Ron Hainsey, Mike Komisarek and Anton Khudobin plus the possibility of Ryan Murphy or Brett Bellemore stepping up. Forward was almost the opposite. While there were issues with depth at forward, driven largely by the Tlusty/EStaal/Semin line that was 1 of the 2-3 best in hockey at even strength in 2012-13, scoring looked to be okay even if not deep. And behind them, there seemed to be enough parts to fill out 2 ½ good lines with JStaal, Skinner, Ruutu and hopefully some help from the system. Busy working on and spending money on the defense, the Canes placed huge expectations on 18-year-old draftee Elias Lindholm and added only veteran Radek Dvorak and fringe AHL/NHL players Nathan Gerbe and Aaron Palushaj (remember that Malhotra did not come until later and initially on an AHL tryout contract). These players needed to not only fill the holes left by Tim Brent, Chad LaRose and Jussi Jokinen who was jettisoned at the trade deadline in a salary dump but also greatly improve upon the depth scoring that was lacking in 2012-13. Even Dvorak, Gerbe and Palushaj were really just more ‘maybes’ (all were signed to 2-way contracts and Dvorak not until AFTER none of the youth worked out in training camp) to add to collection of players in the system who the team hoped would step up. When the dust settled on preseason, Zac Dalpe and Jeremy Welsh were jettisoned to Vancouver and the greatest potentials for secondary scoring in Chris Terry, Zach Boychuk were returned to the AHL.
The clues were there right at the outset. When Radek Dvorak beats out all of your 20-23 year old system players to win an opening night roster spot, it is a statement about the system depth. And when Patrick Dwyer found his way back to the 2nd line as the best option for the 2-way style the line was being designed for, it is a statement about the availability of options for decent offense to go with the defensive priority for that line.
Bursts of flashing lights in the form of strong play have distracted attention away from it, but forward depth especially of the scoring variety has been a problem for the Canes all season.
--Out of the gate, Jeff Skinner scored goal after goal of the individual play variety and even created a few chances for line mates suggesting that maybe the team’s efforts to build a 2A/2B set of lines each designed for a different (defense 1st vs. scoring) purpose could work. But once Skinner went down to injury, it became clear that there was not much offensively past him in the bottom 6.
--Then Manny Malhotra came out of nowhere. He continues to play great hockey in his role, but his early burst of clutch scoring might have created unreal expectations for what he and a checking line built around him could bring offensively. He continues to be an elite 4th-line/checking center but his scoring pace has decreased to a 17ish-point pace (over 82 games) which is 4th-line not 3rd-line type of numbers.
When you net out the Canes personnel at forward, I think it goes like this:
--1st line: Tlusty/EStaal/Semin have struggled more than not this year, but the past 4-5 games seem to suggest that this line is finally hitting top form. Whether the line can sustain its play or not is yet to be determined, but there is enough talent here to be a legitimate NHL top line.
--2nd line: Jordan Staal is the right kind of center to anchor a complementary 2nd line that is more balanced checking and offense. The issue is that if you go with my opinion dating back to before last season that Skinner and JStaal are better apart on different lines, there is just very little left that is more than “good defensively/light offensively”. That left Muller building a line that stuck to the defensive priority but was knowingly light on offense with Dwyer for sure and even to some degree Gerbe. If this line can catch a spark, Muller will ride Skinner/JStaal/Lindholm for a little while, but I do not expect that this line will be any longer-lived than Skinner’s stint on the 1st line. With JStaal's line that has been pretty good all year sputtering a bit and Skinner without enough help on his own line, I think this is a short-term way to maximize Skinner's offense and try to get a couple combinations/players going even if it is short-lived.
--3rd line: Jeff Skinner, especially with as dynamic as he has been offensively this season, is a great starting point to building a 3rd line out of the mold of the Whitney/Cullen/LaRose line from 2005-06 that has skating and skill and can prey on weaker matchups and provide solid secondary scoring. But just like with Jordan Staal’s line, there really just is not much offense left for this line. The options quickly became shallow when Elias Lindholm was some combination of injured and a “learning on the job” young player and not a drop-in 2-way 3rd-line center. With the 2nd line already knowingly light on offense, a 3rd-line of Jeff Skinner plus 2 checking line forwards just is not likely to provide enough offensively.
When I break down the Canes forwards and slot them into a top 9, it is like this:
Tlusty/EStaal/Semin: There is enough talent here. They have proven they can do it. They just need to find their way (which it seems like they are) or there is no combination of trades, line juggling or depth scoring that will be a big enough offset to give the Canes a chance to make the playoffs.
Gerbe/JStaal/____: Jordan Staal is capable of putting up 50-55 points even on a checking-oriented line. And per my season preview, it is not about goal scoring for this line anyway. It is about goal differential. Despite very little offensively, JStaal and his line has still managed to be plus this season. This suggests that if you can get the 1st line clicking offensively and can get consistent depth scoring from the 3rd line even the version of this line that leans too much defense could be adequate even if non-traditional for a 2nd line.
Skinner/____/____: Jeff Skinner is a great starting point for building a 3rd line that can score. He has shown ability to find streaks where he just individually creates offense out of nothing regardless of who he is playing with and if/how much they are helping him. But against good teams that are deeper, being a 1-man show has its limits. He could benefit from a playmaker to make sure that he gets scoring chances on a nightly basis.
I really think that is it in terms of top 9 forwards if you slotted players on good teams and required line appropriate scoring totals. It is important to note that teams (even good ones) do get by overslotting a player or maybe 2, but I think the Canes are 3 short right now in terms of building out a top 9.
Past that, I think the Canes could actually build not 1 but 2 real good 4th lines neither of which is capable of being a 3rd line for an extended period of time on a good team because of scoring limitations.
--Patrick Dwyer. I think he has become the new Chad LaRose. He is a good hockey player. He would be a very good 4th-line player who is reliable defensively, can eat up penalty kill minutes and in that role whose occasional breakaway goal would be more than enough offense. But his 20-25 point ceiling just is not that of a 2nd-line forward on a good team unless your 3rd line brings above average scoring to make up the difference.
--Riley Nash. I like Riley Nash’s game this season. I am enticed by his increasing tendency to go to the front of the net to increase his offensive production the hard way, but as I have said many times, I think his ceiling offensively is that of a good 4th-line center. The problem is that this role is already filled by Malhotra who is the premium version of this player.
--Elias Lindholm. He has had enough bright moments to show why he was drafted 5th overall, but also enough lulls in between (some of them injury-related) to show that he is much more “learning on the job” than “ready to do the job for 82 games on a playoff team” at this point.
--Drayson Bowman. He is another good story like Riley Nash except that I think he has a little bit more offensive upside. As a young, defensively responsible wing with a modest amount of scoring ability, he is a perfect depth forward for the 4th line. Ideally he plays 55-60 games on the 4th-line where even modest goal-scoring is a bonus and if all goes well he can dial up the offense just a little bit at the right time with more offensive line mates when an injury or 2 forces him to fill in on a higher line.
--Manny Malhotra. He is a top 5 in the league 4th-line center. His faceoff acumen and attention to detail defensively make him the perfect anchor for a reliable/any situation 4th/checking line. But because he is a great 4th-line center does not mean he is a pretty good 3rd-line center. It just does not work like that. It is not so much about levels of play but more about roles and production requirements. Even in his prime Malhotra would have been light offensively at 30-35 points on a 3rd line. At this stage of his career he goes from being a difference-maker/elite 4th-line center to an “at least defensively adequate but leaving you needing to make up offense” 3rd-line center.
--Radek Dvorak. He is exactly what you want in a 4th-line “safe and not going to lose games” forward. Ideally the way things work is that your top lines are better than the opponent and win games and the goal of the 4th-line is to play uneventful, sound minutes and not lose games. Dvorak fits in this role fine, but as soon as he jumps to a higher slot, he just will not bring enough offensively at this stage of his career.
--Tuomo Ruutu. Fairly recently, Tuomo Ruutu was a legitimate top 6 forward. While he has had a couple short bursts (I thought he was real good in Wed’s win in Philadelphia), he just has not played at a top 9 forward level this season. If he could find a higher gear, he has the potential to make the Canes 1 player deeper in top 9 forwards, but the pessimist in me just is not sure he can find that level mobility-wise this season. I do hold out hope that a full summer off could make a difference for next fall, but that helps none trying to break the playoff drought now.
When you net it out, the Canes situation forces 3 of the players that I detailed to step into top 9 roles, but when I look at the group I find it easier to build 2 great 4th lines:
Bowman/Malhotra/Dvorak (or Dwyer): Rock solid defensively and built to play D zone starts even against good competition.
Ruutu/Nash/Lindholm (or Dwyer): A skating 4th-line that can push the pace, provide energy and score more than normal for a 4th line.
It is important to note that it is not at all inconceivable to have 1 player or possibly even 2 overslotted a bit in the top 9, but it does create a need to balance things out a bit. As much as Patrick Dwyer is light offensively for a 2nd line slot, he is a good fit for what Muller has tried to do with that line, and if you can get past the superficial goal-scoring stats, it has worked. That line plays hard minutes against other teams’ best and has been plus on the season. They also eat up a significant portion of the penalty kill minutes with all 3 players in key roles there. But if you are going to do that, then you need to make up for the offense somewhere else. Ideally the Canes do this with the 3rd line. And with Skinner there, the potential seems to be there. But with Ruutu’s struggles, Lindholm’s gradual development and the inability of a more-skilled system player to burst onto the scene, you end up with a 3rd line that is more or less Jeff Skinner stuck on a checking line where he has to generate all of his offense himself. His skill set heavy on creativity and individual plays is built for that, but he still needs some help/balance to keep teams from sending a small pack of defenders to key on him without any bad effects from ignoring his line mates.
So in a roundabout way, I think I just wrote a different version of the same blog that I have written once every 2 weeks since mid-November. Back then I suggested that the Canes 2 biggest areas for improvement were a puck-moving/offensive defenseman ideally for the 2nd pairing and a 3rd-line center to pair with Jeff Skinner on an opportunistic scoring-focused 3rd line. In his WTVD-ABC interview last Friday, Canes GM Jim Rutherford indicated that he has been shopping for exactly these 2 things.
In an ideal world, the Canes could use a couple more forwards, a 2nd-line capable scoring power forward right wing and maybe even 1 more forward. But there is exactly zero chance that the Canes shopping spree will be this big. I just continue to hope that Rutherford can add a C3 to provide a bit more scoring depth and balance the 3 lines. At that point, I am okay as a fan to hope that the combination of this upgrade plus getting more things working at the same time is enough to climb into the playoffs.
Cullen? Legwand? MBacklund? Horcoff?
As much as the season has been an up and down affair, I do not think the Canes are really that far away from a strong playoff push. It is just a matter of getting a few things clicking at the same time.
--Tlusty/EStaal/Semin. They must lead offensively. There has been significant progress here in the past few games.
--JStaal’s line. If the team can find more offense elsewhere, he/his line has already proven capable of being breakeven against the other team’s best.
--Skinner’s line. Skinner has been streakily dynamic and overall the Canes best offensive player. Get him a little help to assure he gets chances every night.
--Malhotra’s line. The line has been perfect in its role.
--Blue line. There have been a few too many ‘loose’ games of late, but the defense was the #1 contributor to the early season success.
--Goalie. Khudobin continues to get the job done. At a minimum (and it could be enough), Ward needs to prove capable of adequately spelling Khudobin. Anything more is a bonus.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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