5 random Canes bits:
1-Next 4 games are HUGE for Canes. Before January started I said that the stretch of hockey leading up to the Olympic break could very well decide the season. The opponents and home/away mix were both favorable. The Canes needed to push up the standings. My math said that the Canes needed to collect 2/3 of the points. That would have been 24 points in 18 games before the Buffalo game was postponed and pushed until after the break. Right now the Canes are 9-4, so they need 6 points in 4 games to reach 24 points and would still have the postponed game in their pocket. It depends on how other teams do, but a 3-1 mark up to the break would probably push the Canes into the 2 or 3 spot in the Metro, and they would still have a game or 2 in hand on the teams clustered around them. That is where the Canes need to get to because…
2-The Canes schedule after the break is brutal. 16 of the 25 games are on the road including a West Coast trip, 5 sets of back-to-backs and tough road challenges in Pittsburgh, Boston, Anaheim, San Jose, Detroit and Chicago. The Canes will need to find a higher gear of consistently solid hockey on a nightly basis down the stretch. I just do not see the current “find a way” brand of hockey being good enough to win some and steal others against the level of competition that the Canes will see down the stretch.
3-Would you do Tuomo Ruutu for Rene Bourque? First, I have been impressed with Ruutu's game/effort of late. He has been more noticeable on the ice physically and has also kicked on offensively. But the key thing is that it has been in a "good 4th-line contribution" role, and his salary at $5M is a huge stretch there. I wrote a longer blog on him recently in which I did hold out hope that he could rebound with a full summer off, but shorter term the Canes are pushing to make the playoffs and his role in that goal is small right now. Bourque is a physical wing who is on the outs in Montreal. There are enough reports that he seems to be available most recently rumored to Colorado for Parenteau. On the surface, I get the likely backlash from Ruutu fans and supporters who would quickly argue that the Canes are trading 1 underperforming physical wing for another and that they would rather keep Ruutu and his strong character, likeability and chances for a rebound versus just rolling the dice with another current underperformer. But what if I asked the question differently? What if I asked if you would rather have Khudobin and Bourque or Peters and Ruutu for next year? I think that is the appropriate way to think of any Ruutu trades that get a lower-cost forward in return. Bourque is scheduled to make about $2M for rest of this year and only $2.5M the next 2 years while Ruutu is schedule to make about $2.5M for the rest of this year and $5M over the next 2 years. If you take the $2.5M savings for the next 2 years and also cut out a contract for Peters or a similar cheaper option, you have about $3M for 2 years to pay Khudobin. I am on record as considering trading Ward for any kind of decent return and spending the extra money elsewhere after re-signing Khudobin. But it is uncertain whether there is a fair return to be had for Ward, whether Rutherford would do it anyway and especially whether that can be accomplished before a decision needs to be made on Khudobin. IF (see below) Rutherford wants to keep Khudobin and either does not want to or cannot clear $ more directly by trading Ward, Ruutu is a likely source of funds to keep Khudobin IF (see below again) Rutherford is talking to Khudobin's agent and thinks there is a deal to be made there.
4-So what do I think happens with Khudobin? My best guess is that Anton Khudobin is a starter somewhere else next year. Even worse, I think 2 of the most likely destinations are in-division with the Capitals or Islanders. There are many reasons for this. First, if he can continue to play and win at his current pace, he will easily vault into the category of goalies who will get a shot to be the next up-and-coming starter. A decent benchmark price-wise is Ben Bishop who was similar in age and with a limited but promising NHL resume. He got 2 years at $2.53 per year, but it is also important to note that he was a restricted free agent without the ability to go to the highest bidder. Depending on how the game of musical chairs with guys like Miller, Halak, Hiller, etc. works out, Khudobin could become the “last good option” for the couple teams who do not win the 1st round of musical chairs at which point his negotiating power would rise. So the issue with Khudobin staying with the Canes is twofold. First, I am skeptical that Rutherford will be able to push up against $3M/year for a (at least salary pecking order wise) backup. Yes, I realize that the cap is going up and that the Canes could afford him, but I think the Canes are a little bit overextended as it is (that only gets worse if team again misses playoffs) and that the team is unlikely to spend to the cap. More importantly, Canes fans seemed to get wrapped up debating whether the team can afford him, how he would cost, whether Rutherford would spend that much on a #2, etc. But I think that misses the bigger point. Money aside, would Khudobin be willing to come back anyway? He has worked hard and been very patient trying to accomplish a goal of becoming an NHL starter. If he just wanted to be a backup in a good situation, he would have stayed in Boston. If he wanted the most money he could get, he would not have signed for $800k with the Canes (seeing a decent opening to get ice time with Ward coming off injury). The guy wants to be an NHL starter. If he finishes this year clearly earning the starting job but still finds himself likely to start preseason again with the team trying to make Ward work as the #1, would he be inclined to take that job (regardless of contract)? Or might he prefer to go somewhere where he is very clearly the #1 guy (and actually for the same if not more money)?
5- Elias Lindholm. I have liked him on Jordan Staal’s line. The thing that jumps out about his game when he gets regular shifts with veteran, reasonably textbook NHLers is that he clearly thinks and understands the game at a high level for his young age. If you look at his 2013-14 season thus far for what it is (NOT considering development, projection, future, etc.) it has been underwhelming between the regular injury setbacks and just simply that he looks more like a young player trying to figure it out than a prodigy ready to do it. But I still think he projects very well. Yesterday on Twitter, I had a bit of a back-and-forth about him. I think where he got throttled back this season was in trying to adjust to the NHL game from the European game. With the smaller rinks and even faster players, the NHL game is different obviously. I think the biggest thing for Lindholm has been the challenge of trying to adjust from dealing with traffic/contact by avoiding more of it and/or having fewer short reaction time hits. On the bigger ice surface there is more space and things develop such that if you play with your head up and read situations you can more so avoid hits or pick how you enter them. In the NHL, things are just so much more crowded that it becomes much more a game of learning how to absorb hits indirectly and try to avoid the direct ones in which you are at a big disadvantage. I think it is that adjustment to learning how to absorb contact and receive it in a non-full force way that is a key to Lindholm’s development. He plays with his head up, sees the ice and generally reads situations well, so I think it will come. Adding a few years/pounds will also help, but I think it is more so just learning how to play in a “more contact” game.
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