I was away for the weekend with my son and his youth group, so I am still in catch up mode on Canes hockey. I watched the Phoenix game last night and will probably catch up on the Los Angeles game Monday night. Sometimes a little of distance from the emotions of individual games helps with perspective. With that, here are my thoughts on the Canes big (where the season is right now) and small picture (Phoenix loss).
Big picture (season in total through 6 games):
Sure there are things that need to improve and some issues with the Canes play thus far. And as teams settle in and find grooves, the current level of Canes play would not be good enough to make the playoffs in my opinion. But as evidenced by the division standings, the Canes are not the only team in this boat. Two simple things suggest that looking only at what has happened results-wise through 6 games, the Canes are in pretty good shape.
--First, right now when you adjust for games played (so measuring points above breakeven) the Canes sit a 3-way tie in the division with Columbus and the New York Islanders who are also playing at a point per game pace. By virtue of the throttling that the division has taken versus Western Conference teams, that point per game pace would place 2 of those teams in the #s 2 and 3 spots in the division and would make the 3rd the #8 seed wild card in the Eastern Conference.
--Second, the pace of gaining points considering the level of competition is actually pretty good too. Before the season started, I put the first mile post of the season after game 7 which happens Tuesday versus Chicago. That 7-game stretch saw 3 of the final 4 teams in the playoffs last year and 5 playoff teams out of 7 games. I figured that level of competition would be a pretty good measure of whether the Canes could compete night in and night out. Before it all started, I would have said that 6 points in 7 games was an acceptable start that at least did not dig a big hole, 7 points was a pretty decent platform breaking even against tough competition and that 8 points was a very solid start toward making the playoffs. 8 points in 7 games projects to 94 points in a full 82-game season which is in the neighborhood of what it will take to make the playoffs.
So going into a tough challenge against the Stanley Cup champions, I think the Canes are assured at least a start you can live with and with a win would reach near the high end of what I would have reasonably hoped for. Ironically, the Canes have already repeatedly encountered this “win the next game to make things right” scenario. After the disappointing late letdown against Detroit, the Philadelphia win in game 2 made that weekend right. After the bad loss in Pittsburgh, the Canes won in Washington to get a solid 2 points in 2 games for that road trip. With only an OTL point and a loss to show for 2 home games since then, the Chicago game Tuesday offers the chance to get 3 points in 3 games for the home stand and get to mile post #1 on pace to make the playoffs.
Small picture (The Phoenix game):
What bothered me most about the Phoenix loss was its resemblance to the long string of bad losses last spring. If my memory is correct 3 of the goals came when Phoenix won battles in front of the net. Another came when a defender pinched in the offensive zone (actually the right decision) and Eric Staal retreated to be the high forward (also right) but then Staal made a ‘gambling for goals’ decision to push forward. When it did not work, a 2-on-1 to start the 3rd period of a tied game resulted, Ward got flat beat and suddenly the Canes were down a goal. The Canes have struggled a bit scoring-wise, but maybe with the exception of the Pens game have stayed true to a sounder, tighter version of hockey defensively. The result has been that despite an offense that has what should be its top 2 producers (EStaal line and power play) struggling to find the net, the team has still been collecting points. This is a tremendous foundation to build winning hockey upon as soon as the team can get even 1 of those 2 offensive components clicking. The challenge right now is to NOT give up what is right (the defense) and cheat on it to see if a little bit of risk taking can jumpstart the offense. I think this path leads right back to the 2012-13 season. To some degree, I wrote the rough Pittsburgh game off a bit to the level of offense that team has and also the 1st road challenge to test the defense without the ability to dictate and limit matchups a bit. But the Phoenix game screamed 2012-13 loud and clear.
But there were positives in the Phoenix game:
--Tuomo Ruutu. In limited minutes, he looked like his old self. He drew 3 penalties (1 was offset by an embellishment call). His role and contribution will increase.
--Jiri Tlusty. He made at least 4-5 plays that reminded me of last season where he won loose pucks, took away angles on the forecheck ultimately resulting in turnovers or at least a slowed rush, etc. and had he not been robbed by a defenseman, he would have notched a goal. Just maybe he is getting ready to turn the corner. Remember that he scored nothing in his 1st few games on another line and then also scored nothing on the EStaal line for a few games before he kicked into high gear. We are about as deep into this season as it was last season when he got going, so hopefully we are close.
--Jeff Skinner. Is he the best Canes player through 6 games? Maybe. His goal in the LA game was huge and worth a point. It got lost in the 3rd period problems, but the goal he scored late in the 2nd to tie the Pho game after the team was down after failing on the 5-on-3 was similarly huge at the time it happened. There are other candidates (Khudobin, Gerbe, Faulk, Sekera), but Skinner is clearly in the conversation. The points are obviously impressive and very important given the current scoring struggle. But more significantly to me is the way he is scoring in 2 respects. First, he is clearly leading the effort to create offense which is exactly what he needs to do on a 2B line where he is the top guy. Second, he is creating offense not just for himself but for others. I think a key step forward for his game offensively is an improved ability to both make line mates better and also let them make him better. As evidenced by his assist heavy start to the season, he is clearly helping he is line mates contribute offensively too which is the path to diverse secondary scoring.
--Nathan Gerbe. The guy only has 1 gear. It is too early to say for sure where his scoring ceiling is this year, but after 6 games I think it is very clear that between his style of play and decent bag of offensive tools, he is a positive entry in the top 9 throughout the season.
I could go player by player with a few negatives, but it really just comes down to the lack of attention to detail without the puck in the defensive zone and a few times with the puck but needing a more defensive posture in the offensive zone.
I think the challenge for this team right now is for Kirk Muller and some of the struggling leaders of this team to hold tight to the solid defensive foundation that they have worked so hard to build at the outset of the 2013-14 season. The top part of the offense does need to improve for this team to be successful, but if the team gives up patience and starts trying to generate offense in the wrong ways, I think the death spiral to 2012-13 awaits.
I am also more mixed than negative than some on Cam Ward. In his starts, he has been good twice (Detroit and Los Angeles) and arguably bad once (Pittsburgh). That is a real small sample size of 3 starts. In Sunday's relief appearance, giving up 3 in half of a game including getting flat beat short side for goal #4 and then seeming to lose track of where the net was a bit during the scramble in the crease for goal #5 was not great obviously. But asking a regular starter to sit on the bench as a spectator and then fast forward his mental and physical game preparation during a commercial break is an unfamiliar challenge for starters who rarely enter underway games that are still to be decided. (Usually they get the whole game off or if they get called in it is because the backup/team was horrible and the game is mostly over already.) Depending on what news we get on Khudobin today, it could become even more important for Ward to quickly find his top form. By no means is this a sure thing, but based on what I have seen so far, I do not picture it as out of reach either.
Next up is a big challenge and a chance to finish strong at my first season mile post against the reigning Stanley Cup champions on Tuesday.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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