When it comes to Edmonton’s future, there’s no question that it centers around Connor McDavid, but who Connor McDavid centers is going to be an important question that could be addressed meaningfully this summer.
With rumours earlier in the year that there was a deal in place sending both Pouliot and Yakupov to the Ducks that crumbled when Pouliot went down to injury, and constant rumours that Eberle might be the trade chip used to acquire another defenseman, there is a very real chance that McDavid will be playing with new linemates next season. It’s important to look at the combinations that the wunderkind played with as he lit up the NHL, albeit briefly.
There are three sets of combinations that I saw throughout the year. The one constant in them: Connor McDavid was amazing.
The three main McDavid lines were:
Pouliot McDavid Yakupov
Pouliot McDavid Eberle
Maroon McDavid Eberle
By the time the season had ended, there was talk from the coaching staff that they wanted to see Maroon back with McDavid to start the next season. Yakupov had been left for dead on the Letestu line until a brief reprieve came with Hall, and Pouliot was stuck on IR waiting for medical clearance.
Maroon with McDavid was a revelation as he came over, salary retained, from the Anaheim Ducks. The giant who is playing for team USA at the World Championships transformed into a highly productive top 6 winger while he was hitched to McDavid’s wagon. We all remember it, but how much of that can be expected moving forward? Is he a better option long-term than Pouliot, and can Eberle’s offense be replaced?
My colleague Jonathan Willis looked at McDavid’s different lines
here and found that neither Maroon nor Yakupov were particularly good enough with McDavid. At least, not good enough to run long term as a Power vs Power line in the West.
Here are some of the 5v5 numbers for each line
Pouliot McDavid Yakupov 128.21 mins
4.21 GF/60, 3.27 GA/60, 14.29 sh%, 88.71 sv%, 103 PDO, 56.10 CF/60, 52.82 CA/60, 51.5% CF
Even though the goaltending was ugly, this line was scoring goals like mad together. The elevated shooting percentage 5v5 is definitely a concern for sustainability, but they did post positive possession numbers despite it being McDavid’s first month in the NHL and playing with Yakupov (whose impact on possession was never positive until this year).
Pouliot McDavid Eberle 138:34
3.90 GF/60, 3.46 GA/60, 11.54%, 87.88 sv%, 99.4 PDO, 61.05 CF/60, 48.50 CA/60, 55.7% CF
This trio of players was the peak of possession performance for the McDavid lines, but also had just gawdawful goaltending. As a result, the (still) elevated shooting percentage couldn’t push the PDO past 100. The solid production of both Eberle and Pouliot continued to push the goals for in the right direction. More importantly, as a predictor of sustainability, this line crushed possession together. 55.7% on the Oilers, with THAT defense behind them, is really something to be excited about.
Maroon McDavid Eberle 119:27
4.52 GF/60, 2.01 GA/60, 13.04 sh%, 94.20 sv%, 107.2 PDO, 61.78 CF/60, 66.81 CA/60, 48.0 CF
It doesn’t take long to see why the Oilers loved this grouping. In terms of results, they had the best. They scored the most goals for per hour and least goals against per hour. The problem is that WHY they had the best results doesn’t line up well with our best predictors of success. The line was out-possessed considerably compared to the other lines. And while those comparisons to other lines are happening, the shot attempts against with Maroon, McDavid, and Eberle were a nightmare 66.81 against per 60 minutes. That’s worse than having Lauri Korpikoski out there!
There is one consideration I think is also important to look at, and that’s cost. The cost of running the lines in terms of Salary Cap is going to be an important factor. Here they are, assuming McDavid earns his ELC bonuses.
Pouliot (4M) McDavid (3.775M) Yakupov (2.5M): 10.275M
Pouliot (4M) McDavid (3.775M) Eberle (6M): 13.775M
Maroon (1.5M) McDavid (3.775M) Eberle (6M): 11.275M
The line that performed the best, with the most measurable predictors of sustainability, is also the most expensive. In this case the Oilers are paying for what they get. Jordan Eberle is a proven point producer. Pouliot has been a 5v5 performer his entire career. McDavid is two thirds divine. It’s a combination that on paper and in practice worked well.
However, pretty much any combination of McDavid, Pouliot, and any other living human has proven to work very well in terms of keeping possession and scoring. The cheapest combination on the board ALSO scored well and out-possessed the opposition. For both of those “Pouliot” options, the Oilers were getting brutal goaltending. It is more than plausible that the goals against will be cut down with no change to the way the skaters play.
The Maroon line, with Eberle, provided the absolute best scoring, but how much of that was just getting incredibly hot at the right time? That 107 PDO highlights a future crash in both save percentage and shooting percentage. When that happens, there better be a correction to the possession metrics as well, because if not then the Oilers will be spending more time in their zone than they want.
I loved what Maroon did with McDavid and I have no problem finding out what kind of chemistry they can sustain to start next year, but I would be leery of putting all my eggs in that basket. That said, I would also be skeptical of fearing who will score goals if Eberle is moved. Every McDavid combination found ways to score goals. It isn’t special to only combinations involving Eberle. Actually, each combination scored 9 goals at even strength together.
Who should McDavid be centering? I would prefer him to be with someone like Pouliot, who has always kept the puck moving in the right direction for his whole career, but I am confident that it will be McDavid driving the bus moving forward. Because of that, I’m left wondering if there’s really too many bad combinations the Oilers can even put him in without making it obvious they’re testing the limits of his humanity.
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