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R2 G2 Oilers at Ducks: Sekera and Russell Struggling |
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Adam Larsson’s Game 1 heroics were enough to push Edmonton out in front of this series and snatch back home ice advantage from the Ducks. There’s little question in my mind that Anaheim will make a significantly more substantive push in game 2. Maybe it was all that time off, maybe it was actually their game plan, but they allowed the Oil to play two good road periods before the game opened up, which tends to favor the Oilers anyway.
The Ducks really pushed the Kesler vs McDavid and Getzlaf vs RNH matchups through two periods. In the 3rd period they were much less strict with them as they tried to get offense moving. It’s actually not those matchups that have me concerned after 1 game. The issue for me is which defensive pairings see the top Duck units. Specifically, I have major concerns about what to do with Sekera and Russell.
As this is a topic we’ve addressed many times through the season, most are aware that Kris Russell is one of the worst defenders in the NHL when it comes to shot attempts and shot attempts relative to his teammates. In unfiltered words, the other team shoots the puck way more when he’s on the ice and Edmonton’s ability to score goals goes right into the ditch. It’s not good.
Before the end of October we had enough information available to detect a major problem and review of his play identified major weaknesses in his puck-moving ability, passing ability, and net-front presence. He was an outstanding shot blocker in the sense that he blocked shots at a per 60 minute rate that is insane, but that’s not exactly a good thing. I don’t think it’s shocking to anyone that Russell leads the NHL in blocked shots this post-season either.
So it’s neither new nor unexpected that these same problems now bear out during the post-season. Sekera, for his part, has not been able to elevate that pairing to positive shot attempts numbers either. So while the long term data complete with the WOWYs identifies Russell as the leading candidate for blame, Sekera isn’t without blame. The pairing as a unit just isn’t getting the job done.
Against the Sharks the trio of Hertl, Pavelski, and Couture (Forwards he logged the most time against) were all over 50% in shot attempts with Russell on the ice; 51.5%, 51.0%, and 50.9% respectively. With Russell OFF the ice they were all significantly lower; 46.7%, 43.7%, and 39.8% respectively. So the best players of the Sharks were feeding on ice time against Russell then suffocated when he left the ice.
Against the Ducks, both Getzlaf and Kesler abused the Russell/Sekera pairing and it directly lead to one goal at least. They were on for a couple against. But as was typical of the season, Russell allowed Getzlaf to enter the offensive zone with a gap that was so large that it probably can’t even be called a gap anymore. As Russell set himself up to block the shot, Getzlaf simply outwaited both Russell and the goalie until his angle was optimal. Laser beam. Goal.
That one play aside, Ryan Getzlaf was 8-2 in 5v5 shot attempts (80% CF) in about 5 minutes of play against Russell. Kesler was 7-2 in 5v5 shot attempts (77.8% CF) in another 5 minutes of play against. So in about 10 minutes of play against the top 2 lines of the Ducks, Kris Russell was beat down to the tune of 15 shot attempts against and just 4 for. No Bueno. One really bad game, surely, but not entirely unexpected.
The critical matchup of this series might not be McDavid or Nuge vs the big bad centermen in Anaheim. It will likely be how well can the Sekera/Russell pairing fare against either of them or how well McLellan can hide them should this trend continue. The problem here is that the Sekera/Russell pair logs a lot of minutes and hiding them isn’t an option. McLellan and company need to find a way for this pairing to be significantly more effective against at least one of those lines.
So far this post-season, Russell and Sekera have not been on the ice for a single 5v5 goal for the Oil.
LINEUP
Samesies.
Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Lucic RNH Eberle
Caggiula Letestu Kassian
Pouliot Desharnais Slepyshev
Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Russell
Nurse Benning
Talbot
Brossoit
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Let Them Forget About Drai. Leon Draisaitl had 8 points (6-2-8) in 5 regular season games against the Ducks. He’s been a verified Duck Hunter (wink) this season. He followed the regular season up with a statement game on Wednesday picking up another 4 points. For whatever success the Ducks have had limiting McDavid, it has come at the expense of allowing Draisaitl to thoroughly trash them on the score board. At this point it has to be eating away at them that this young man has been so lethal against them. When Draisaitl was drafted the dream then (as it is now) was that when matched against the Thorntons and Getzlafs of the West the Oilers would have their own big, talented forward to push back with. Well…this is what the Oilers have been getting. And every ounce of energy spent trying to stop McDavid is one they aren’t expending to stop Draisaitl. Even though 97 wants to be the one scoring, he’ll happily trade scoring less himself if it means his winger is getting the points instead. He’s been a problem for Anaheim all year. What will they do to stop him?
2) Initiate, Not Retaliate. Nobody likes officiating. Ducks fans think the Oilers were getting all the calls. Oiler fans think the Ducks were getting away with murder. The reality is that Edmonton could really put their foot on the throat of this series if the official keep calling things the way they did in game one. McDavid was finally drawing penalties as Ducks forwards were hanging off of him. Edmonton’s penalties (before the scrums at the end of the game) were a questionable goaltender interference, a questionable hook, and a slash on Getzlaf by Draisaitl. If we can drop that retaliatory slash by Draisaitl (after about 9 slashes by Getzlaf) then Edmonton is doing pretty well. The referees were calling the Ducks on their obstruction tactics. They called the Oilers on some make-up stuff and a retaliation. If Edmonton maintains their aggressiveness with the puck and stays smart without it then there’s a real opportunity here.
3) Active Defense. When the Oilers were being blanketed by the Ducks the goal was very clearly to gum up the neutral zone and choke out the options for the defender to make a clean pass. Against McDavid this was even more pronounced. As giving 97 time and space in the neutral zone is a recipe for disaster, the Ducks made sure Kesler was stapled to McDavid’s gear. The only real, consistent, opportunity for the Oilers to have clean zone entries was via the defense transporting the puck themselves at least further up the ice than they normally do. Someone shadows 97, the regular forechecker takes away at least one passing lane to a non-97 Oiler, a 3rd Duck forward takes away the middle of the ice. If the defender activates with the puck it should open a wing for entry and that’s exactly what happened on the Larsson game winner. Edmonton’s defense may not be all-world but all them, Russell included, can skate. They need to keep doing that to take advantage of the Ducks plan.
Puck drops tonight at 8:30 PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet. Game On!
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