The Habs and the Oilers look like teams heading in different directions at the moment. It’s only been two games since McDavid has returned, but the Oilers have scored 12 goals in those two games and McDavid has been in on 5 of them.

Edmonton is suddenly hot in a way that makes you wonder just how special this kid from Richmond Hill really is. Could he really be the difference between an Oiler team capable of scoring on any given shift and the defeated team we saw just before the break? For two games at least it’s seemed like McDavid has made everyone forget that this team is still also down Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Oscar Klefbom.

For those of us who never turned our eyes away even when the entertainment value was dwindling, it’s hard to recognize the Oilers as the same team it was even 2 weeks ago. There’s still plenty of trepidation from me right now when it comes to believing that everything is better now. But Edmonton with a healthy McDavid and Talbot playing solid hockey should at the very least be IN all the games they play.

The focus today is on McDavid’s first NHL game in Montreal. I have no doubts that he’s going to be geeked up and ready to play the second the puck is dropped, and right now that has to be a scary proposition for Montreal. He’s already the fastest player on the ice in every game he plays. He’s already the most electric puck carrier on the Oilers and maybe in the NHL. I’m sure the Habs wish this was a quiet Tuesday night and not a nationally televised debut for the kid. They don’t need him to have any extra adrenaline today.

But while Edmonton is on the receiving end of a McDavid boost right now, the Habs appear to be in freefall. They are on a 4 game losing streak and have only won 1 game in their last 10 played. This is a team in dire need of help.

The Price injury is apparently the difference between the Canadiens challenging to win games on a nightly basis and them being entirely overmatched. Of course it doesn’t help that with Price Montreal is getting .934 goaltending and without him that drops off the face of the Earth. The save percentages for the 4 Montreal goalies are as follows:

Price: .934 sv%
Condon: .905 sv%
Tokarski: .878 sv%
Scrivens: .873 sv%

The basic analytics for the Habs are actually strong! They are 4th in Shots For percentage, 4th in Fenwick For percentage, and 4th in Corsi For percentage. Montreal outshoots and out attempts the opposition quite a bit. Despite that they have one of the worst records in the NHL over the last several months.

That Kassian/Scrivens deal is looking a lot better today for the Oilers than first impressions certainly gave it credit for.

As an aside, I want to say this about Kassian while it’s an appropriate time to talk about it. Kassian is a jerk on the ice. Truly he must be one of the most disliked opponents in the NHL. When he broke Gagner’s jaw and mocked him for it, that was well over the line and part of me will never be ok with what happened there. However, Kassian deserves a chance to clean and healthy, no different than anyone suffering from addiction and on a human level I am happy that he found treatment. I sincerely hope he’s serious about making the requisite changes to his lifestyle.



This interview from Kassian sounds like he’s really come to terms with what happened to him in Montreal and that he was just thankful to keep having a chance to play in Edmonton. They are, to me, all the right words. If they are sincere then I wish him the best.

LINEUP

It’s a matinee game so there are rarely opportunities to see the lineup too long before the game starts. I’m assuming same as last time.

Hall Draisaitl Purcell
Pouliot McDavid Eberle
Kassian Letestu Yakupov
Korpikoski Hendricks Pakarinen

Sekera Fayne
Nurse Schultz
Davidson Gryba

Talbot

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Two Pronged Attacked. The Oilers can come at you with two lines that are capable of dominating the play 5v5. Taylor Hall and Leon Draisaitl are featured on the top line. Connor McDavid and Jordan Eberle are featured on the second line. Montreal gets to pick its poison with the both are rolling. McDavid has the highest 5v5 P/60 in the entire NHL (minimum 100 mins), Draisaitl is 2nd in the NHL, Hall is 5th in the NHL. That should be roughly 40 minutes a night against the 3 of the most dangerous even strength players in the NHL.

2) BEAT HIS A$$. Those were the words yelled out by Darnell Nurse’s father from the stands as Nurse thoroughly dominated McCormick in a birthday fight. Nurse also had a solid rush up the ice that I thought had a decent chance of being converted into a goal. It turned out to be one of the few saves made by a Senator goalie that night. Nurse needed the 9 day break more than any other healthy skater on the Oilers. He needed to reset and refresh. The last 2 games he has looked meaner than ever and ready to assert himself on the game. My eye is on Nurse as he keeps figuring out what he’s capable of doing out there.

3) Early and Often. The Oilers more than any team know the psychological effect bad goaltending has on the skaters. If you cant trust your goaltender to make a routine stop then it starts to erode the way you play in your own end. Defensemen start getting out of position to make a play because they don’t believe the save is coming. It’s a snowball effect. The Oilers need to take advantage of Montreal’s suspect goaltending. Get on board early and watch the shoulders sag on the home bench.

Puck drops at 12PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet. Game On!

Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy

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