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G32 Oilers vs Predators: How Connor Got His Groove Back

December 14, 2017, 2:20 PM ET [151 Comments]
Matt Henderson
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The giant has awoken from his slumber. That’s probably the best way to describe the change to Connor McDavid’s game this last week. He has 8 points in his last 5 games and his Oh-My-God-Can-He-Do-That?/60 is through the roof again.

A week ago, Connor McDavid was 11th in NHL scoring. Today, he is 3rd and only 3 points back of Kucherov and Stamkos. Who is willing to bet against him taking the lead before the new year? Not me. McDavid is playing like a man possessed. This is about when the rest of the league catches up to the speed of the players who shot out of the gate. The guys in front are slowing down and McDavid is ramping up.

It doesn’t hurt at all that McDavid’s linemates are playing well. I had a lot of concerns for Milan Lucic, specifically his foot speed. However, with Puljujarvi on the right side, the line can run its puck carrying through the young guys and let Lucic do his thing everywhere else.

The Oiler line has played just 69.1 minutes together 5v5 per Corsica.hockey but the trio has a lot more going for it than some PDO magic (which it still got). There’s no doubt that the group is scoring well, but by other metrics it’s outperforming other incarnations of the 1st line. For example, this trio has had a better CF% than Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl. Ok, not by much (57% to 56%), but better nonetheless. They also have a better “Expected” goals for percentage. The xGF% of this group is 57.23% compared to 52.12% for the other.

“Expected” metrics are part of the new wave of hockey analytics that tries to marry things like gross volume (Corsi) with some real hockey knowledge about what makes shots more or less dangerous (shot type, etc). Edmonton’s new top line is doing just fine. And what’s best, the trio of Maroon-RNH-Cammalleri that comes over the boards after them is a killer too.

With everyone pulling their weight, the Oiler offense looks ready to explode. Can this season be saved? Let’s keep an eye on that for the next several weeks.

Points Back: 7

LINEUP

Not anticipating changes.

Lucic McDavid Puljujarvi
Maroon RNH Cammalleri
Khaira Draisaitl Strome
Slepyshev Letestu Kassian

Klefbom Benning
Nurse Russell
Auvitu Davidson

Brossoit

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) All Sorted Now? Laurent Brossoit started off this run as the de facto starter by playing terribly. He cost Edmonton points, no question about it. However, on this past road trip, even after giving up a few softies, he managed to stop 71 of 76 shots he faced. One wonders if he’s finally got his legs about him. Another solid outing might be the difference between Talbot coming back a touch too early or getting another day of therapy and rest. After the Preds lit the Canucks up last night, Edmonton needs someone to be prepared between the pipes.

2) That Blueline. The Nashville Predators have one of –if not THE- best defenses in the NHL. Some people argue Josi is overrated a bit, but the fact of the matter is he’s playing 25 minutes a night. Ryan Ellis has been out with the knee injury all year, but the Preds still have Subban and Ekholm to play, and play they do. Ekholm is averaging 24:50 a night while Subban averages 24:17 a night. They rely on those three blueliners a lot, but it’s hard to fault them for that. I would too. The Oilers hope that by playing last night, these work horses are just a little tired tonight.

3) Healthy 97. If there is a more beautiful thing to behold in the NHL than a healthy Connor McDavid asserting himself in-game then I have not witnessed it. The way he has dominated games, seemingly at will, since getting over his sickness has been a pleasure to watch. McDavid at his best is a player that challenges the opposition to stop him. 9 times out of 10, the defender is not capable of matching his speed and ability. If he sees an opening he goes for it at Mach 1. It forces defenders to back up which just gives him more time and space to make passes to his linemates, who right now are converting. As he goes, so do the Oilers.

Puck drops tonight at 7PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Game On!

Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy
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