The clock is running on the Oilers season unless they can put together a lengthy winning streak very soon. This is not the way the season was supposed to go, but that doesn’t count for much these days. All that matters is winning.

The numbers guys and the traditional hockey guys are in agreement on this point: If you are in Edmonton’s position in the standings on American Thanksgiving, you are looking for a miracle. Only one team in 11 years has come back from this far behind to make the playoffs, and that was the Capitals when they hired Boudreau and got a goalie.

Well Edmonton isn’t about to fire McLellan (and I don’t think they should) and they (probably?) aren’t going to trade for a goalie. Sorry, weird Habs rumour about trading Draisaitl for Price.

That leaves Edmonton in a spot where they need to fundamentally change their results when they aren’t going to fundamentally change the way they play or add a game-altering player to the lineup. Here are some positives.

1) The Oilers are a good possession team. Typically, the best teams in the NHL are good possession teams. Edmonton is 2nd in shot attempt percentage with 55.2% CF. They are 1st in the NHL in unblocked shot attempts with 55.0% FF. They are 5th in the NHL in shot percentage with 53.5% SF. And, they are 1st in the NHL in scoring chances for with 55.7% SCF. If there is a team due for a change in results, it’s Edmonton.

2) McDavid can be better. Even though he is on the same pace (or slightly better) than he was in last year’s Art Ross winning season, McDavid still hasn’t appeared “right” this season. We know that for the past several games he’s been ill. He didn’t even make the practice yesterday because of whatever he’s been fighting. When you watch him play, there are still two or three opportunities a game that go by because either he’s passed when he should have shot or his wingers blow it.

3) Andrej Sekera will be back in December. It’s hardly a cure-all but I doubt it will be a negative. Andrej Sekera is a capable puck mover and defender. He can do everything pretty well (versus doing one thing incredibly well). When he returns it should add more talent on the 2nd PP unit, the PK, and 5v5. It should also ease some pressure off of Oscar Klefbom, who desperately needs a break. This isn’t going to be like adding Erik Karlsson, but it is a big boost nevertheless.

4) Cam Talbot should improve. Talbot’s .903 save percentage is killing Edmonton. Starting the last game down 2-0 because the first 2 shots went into the back of the net was a killer. Too many games are starting with bad goals from a guy who picked up Vezina votes a year ago. He’s going to improve. His level of play from the time he entered the NHL to now shows that he’s a much better goalie than October and November would have you believe.

I wish I had more reasons to be hopeful about turning the season around, but that’s really what I’ve got. I think McLellan is doing a decent job coaching them. It’s just that a fair amount of talent was removed from critical spots over the last few seasons and never really replaced.

***

The Oilers placed Russian defender Ziyat Paigin on unconditional waivers today. The 6’6” defender out of Penza Russia had captured the imaginations of the team and fans alike when he had a 37GP, 9-18-27 season with Sochi in 2015-2016. However, in North America his game hasn’t translated.

Paigin has been the 7th defenseman on the Condors this season and that’s just not helping the development of the 22 year old. He has 12GP, 0-0-0 between his handful of games last year and this year in the AHL. It’s assumed that Paigin will clear waivers and then be allowed to leave for Russia.

***

Per Darren Dreger the Oilers are looking for a defenseman and Chiarelli was last seen scouting a Blue Jackets game. This has opened up thoughts about Edmonton going after a Jack Johnson or Ryan Murray. The price for Murray is rumoured to be a Center. I’m assuming that this is going to be one for one Murray for Nuge because that’s just how we roll.

Edmonton’s problem on defense has been there since last season and Chiarelli opted to punt in the offseason. Instead of addressing the real problem he handed Russell and $16 million dollar deal over four years with No Movement Clauses that will eventually turn into limited No Trade Clauses. He’s playing on the 3rd pairing now and Sekera is about to return.

LINEUP

McDavid was skating again this morning. Yay!!!

Maroon McDavid Caggiula
Lucic RNH Draisaitl
Cammalleri Strome Pakarinen
Khaira Letestu Kassian

Klefbom Benning
Nurse Larsson
Russell Gryba

Talbot

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Stop A Puck. It’s unfortunate that I need to write this, but the Oilers need a save here. They out-shot the Dallas Stars 30-21 but lost the game 6-3. Hockey is a miserable game to play when you don’t know if your goalie is going to make even a routine stop. The first two shots were in the back of the net in the last one and frankly the Oilers aren’t good enough to overcome Talbot being poor. They will have a hard enough time if he’s even just OK.

2) Not Just McDavid or Nuge. At all strengths (5v5, PK, PP) the Oilers have a goals for and against of 50-63. McDavid has been on the ice for 29 GF to 22 GA. Nuge has been on for 19 GF and 19 GA. They’ve only played 12 minutes together all year and had 2 goals for and 1 against. That means the two of them combined have been on the ice for 46 goals for and 40 goals against. In other words, 92% of Edmonton’s goals have been scored with one of them on the ice. What are the other 2 lines doing?

3) Seriously, That Line. This is a repeat from the last time the Oilers played the Blues, but Schenn, Schwartz, and Tarasenko abused them just as they’ve abused the rest of the league. The Oiler defense must find a way to keep those men off the scoresheet if they want to keep the game close. Benning and Russell struggled greatly in that game against the Blues. They could be targets again for St Louis. Russell is known for allowing entry into the DZ, but Benning has some huge variance in his games. He can be better.

Puck drops tonight at 6PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Game On!

Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy

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