The Oiler road trip ended with an OT loss to the Capitals, but overall they managed to take 5 of 8 points that were on the line and you have to take that as a positive at this point. The team is back home, where success hasn’t been easy to find. The biggest difference in winning and losing at home vs the road has been Talbot’s play. I thought he was pretty good on this last road trip so here’s hoping he gets that turned around.
The Oilers are a club that is outshooting the opposition by a good margin 5v5, but failing to translate that into goals. For example, they are outshooting the opposition 480-417 through 17 games while 5v5. However, the club is getting outscored 26-30. They are 26th in PDO with a 98.2 (100 is “normal” and even 99.0 is very low).
We covered in the last game day blog that one of the players hit hardest by the percentages has been Oscar Klefbom. When the goalie isn’t making the stops behind you and the forwards aren’t putting them in the net in front of you, the media are going to question everything about your game. The human brain finds patterns and tries to make sense of them, even when there’s no sense to be made at all. It’s why people wear lucky socks or believe vaccines cause autism or see images in the clouds and stars.
When it comes to hockey, when the percentages are either crazy high or super low, we knee-jerk to making narratives that explain the great or poor performances. Jordan Eberle shot 18.9% in his 2nd season and set what is still a career high in goal-scoring at 34. How many people labelled him a super-sniper and set expectations for 30 goals and 70 points moving forward? I bet the same number of people who decided after last year’s career low 9.6% that he was done as a top line forward.
Here’s Klefbom’s 2016-2017 numbers vs his 2017-2018 numbers:
CF% 50.1% -> 53.5%
FF% 51.8% -> 53.5%
SCF% 49.7% -> 52.7%
Individual Shots/60 6.91 -> 8.20
The reality is that in some very important metrics for an offensive defenseman, Klefbom is doing alright. Here’s the issue. Oscar Klefbom currently owns a defense low 95.2 PDO. The team is shooting 5.39% when he’s on the ice and the goalies are stopping just .898 with him out there. Last season they shot 8.81% and goalies had a .915 save percentage.
Just like Eberle was a super sniper and then conversely completely done as a scorer, Klefbom has gone from defensive darling to someone who has forgotten how to play and is costing the Oilers games. Mark Spector wrote yesterday that
Klefbom’s game is costing everyone goals. It’s not just that he’s got a low shooting percentage himself. As his on-ice shooting percentage has plummeted, it’s now HIS fault that Drake Caggiula is a terrible scorer. It’s his fault that Lucic is a boat anchor.
PDO, man. She’s a cruel mistress.
LINEUP
Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Lucic RNH Puljujarvi
Malone Strome Pakarinen
Khaira Letestu Kassian
Klefbom Benning
Nurse Larsson
Auvitu Russell
Talbot
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Perron’s Play. David Perron was traded from the Oilers to the Penguins for future Olympian Rob Klinkhammer and a 1st round pick that turned into Mathew Barzal for the Islanders and Griffin Reinhart for Edmonton. This season he has 5-9-14 in 16 games with the Golden Knights. He was a castoff from St Louis in the expansion draft, but just like he did when he was in a feature role in Edmonton, he’s been a very productive forward.
2) McDavid’s Offense. If you’re watching Oiler games then you know that McDavid is still good for 2 or 3 moves a game where you just wonder if he’s even human. That hasn’t changed. His offense, however, has felt a little muted compared to what we are accustomed to. He isn’t picking up multiple point games like has had been or seems capable. Part of that is, without question, due to the power play problems facing the Oil. McDavid needs to be far more dangerous on the PP, but he’s creating scoring chances 5v5 like a beast but his teammates are not cashing in. McDavid is a playmaker. Draisait and Maroon need to cash in a lot more to justify being in their spots.
3) That Backup Backup’s Backup. The Golden Knights have been struck with the injury bug to their goalies. The on-going joke is that they are like the drummers for Spinal Tap. We are now on the 4th string goalie Maxime Lagace. This is a guy who had an .883 save percentage in the AHL with the Texas Stars last season. He had just an .888 in 4 games with the Wolves this year. He’s been forced into 7 NHL games this season and has a .876 save percentage in that time. The Oilers have to find a way to make this kid’s night awful. Of course, it feels like every goalie playing Edmonton this season is Dominik Hasek. So we’ll see what’s going on.
Puck drops tonight at 7PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Game On!
Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy 
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»