The mainstream media in Edmonton has been prepping everybody for an Eberle/Strome swap for weeks, and yet it still feels incredibly dumb. You can talk about it all you want, but nothing quite gets you ready for abject failure.
The Oilers have traded their 3rd leading scorer, who happened to have one of the worst seasons in his life, for a player who was New York’s 8th leading scorer and whose career best was lower than what Eberle produced in 2016-2017. They did it for money. Edmonton, with $20 million in Cap Space, didn’t have quite enough. I guess. Or something.
Eberle’s $6 million dollar salary has given way to Strome’s $2.5 million. Of course, you get what you pay for in this case. Now before you get excited about what the Oilers will do with all that leftover Cap Space, let’s assume it’s going to be given to Kris Russell and used to weaken the blueline.
Here’s what we can say about Jordan Eberle. He had one of the worst imaginable playoff debuts. After waiting years to make the post-season, he blew it with a 0 goal performance that was actually worse than Nugent-Hopkins’ 0 goal performance. He failed to be physical and suffered wild swings in judgment that were ultimately costly.
He failed to take advantage of the league’s greatest gift, Connor McDavid as his centerman, in the regular season. Despite taking strides in many measurable events (like his shooting rate), his shooting percentage dipped to well below his career average. Now, anyone with a modicum of patience might suggest waiting to see if that would bounce back to career norms, but this is no time for patience (I guess).
Despite the career low in shooting percentage, Jordan Eberle was still 21st in scoring by NHL right wings. Ryan Strome was 46th.
Strome is 23 years old, he’ll be 24 in a couple weeks. He was drafted 5th overall by the Islanders in 2011 and reached his absolute peak in production in 2014-2015 when he scored 17-33-50. However, since that season, Strome has struggled.
2015-2016: 71GP, 8-20-28
2016-2017: 69GP, 13-17-30
So in the last 2 seasons Strome has produced 140GP, 21-37-58 and Eberle has produced 151GP, 45-53-98.
Let’s shift away from traditional numbers to look at what we can glean from some of the other metrics.
Using the last 2 years of data (2015-2017) we can see where Strome ranks on the Islanders (forwards only) and how he compares to both Eberle and other Oilers.
Points per 60 5v5
Ryan Strome: 1.44 P/60, 12th on NYI
Jordan Eberle: 1.80 P/60, 4th on Edm
David Desharnais: 1.46 P/60, 9th on Edm
Goals For Percentage 5v5
Ryan Strome: 46.5%, 16th on NYI
Jordan Eberle: 50.0%, 10th on Edm
Jujhar Khaira: 46.7% 13th on Edm
Corsi For Relative 5v5
Ryan Strome: -0.4, 8th on NYI
Jordan Eberle: 2.1, 5th on Edm
Anton Lander: -0.5, 8th on Edm
Fenwick For Relative 5v5
Ryan Strome: -0.2, 7th on NYI
Jordan Eberle: 2.6, 4th on Edm
Drake Caggiula: -0.2, 9th on Edm
In terms of playing partners, Strome’s top forward linemates over the last 2 seasons have been Brock Nelson and John Tavares. Naturally, Strome has performed better in possession metrics when playing with Tavares. He’s also seen more offensive zone starts when with Tavares too though. Unfortunately, Tavares performs better without Strome.
If anyone is going to suggest that Strome can step onto the Oilers and take over Eberle’s production and role on the team, I’m going to be skeptical of it. That’s not to say miracles don’t happen, just that I would want to see it before I believe it. There isn’t anything in Strome’s last 2 years that screams “Top 6 forward” and that’s concerning.
I don’t think I can hammer this point home well enough, but this is simply a talent downgrade all the way and the only positive is the salary cap flexibility. The problem there is that the Oilers seem poised to give those Cap dollars to the defenseman who hurt them the most last year. So instead of upgrading on the defense with this money, Edmonton is about to double down on solidifying the part that held them back.
We wait to see what Chiarelli does with the extra money.
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