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What Chicago can learn from Ottawa |
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Call it boring hockey.
Call them a bunch of nobodies—with possibly one exception (Erik Karlsson).
But the Ottawa Senators may be about to come out of the Eastern Conference. And so there also may be lesson in this for a team of high-flying, highly paid superstars known as the Chicago Blackhawks. Especially for their front office and coaching staff.
As well documented here and elsewhere, the Blackhawks' habit of big, long-term rewards for the players who've been key to their success has them now backed into a corner of sorts.
The Blackhawks have $40 million in cap space committed to just 5 players (3 forwards, 1 defenseman, 1 goalie) next season, well over half of their total salary cap.
By contrast, the Sens are spending about $29 million for their highest paid 3 forwards, defenseman and goalie. This, in turn, allows the Sens to stock their depth with young, serviceable contributors like Cody Ceci, Zack Smith, and Chicago's own Ryan Dzingel and Tommy Wingels.
Hey, that's arguably the price of success in Chicago—and no Hawk fan would trade any of the three Cups to change it. I get it.
But there's no "law," aside from no-movement clauses (in some, but not all, cases) that says they need to continue tying up that kind of money in the top of their roster. And even NMCs can be worked around.
The good news for Hawk fans—after seeing their team bow out of the playoffs in the first round for the second straight season—is they have a basis of talent that far exceeds most other teams. In terms of key players, they have an abundance of talent.
Forget the "narratives" of the last couple of years.
"Brent Seabrook fell off a cliff."
Right, because he was tethered to Viktor Svedberg, Erik Gustafsson, a learning-on-the-job Michal Kempny, a hobbled Johnny Oduya and an out of position Trevor van Riemsdyk for much of the last two years.
"Duncan Keith has lost a step."
Maybe. Maybe not. People quickly forget that there was rumor Keith might miss not just the start of last season—but much of the season itself—due to an offseason knee surgery. Recovering from knee surgery takes time. Even for elite athletes like Keith.
"Jonathan Toews, also done."
Like Seabrook, Toews has entertained a revolving door of rookies and learners and spare parts on his left wing the last two seasons. Like Keith, he played through an injury this past season. He just turned 29.
"Marian Hossa is now a third liner."
Well, if he is, he looks to be good for 25 goals and great two-way play doing it. So be it.
The point is, The Hawks are not far from the premier team in the league they were just two short years ago. The obstacle is not the salary cap. The obstacle is defeatist—and repetitive—thinking.
The Hawks need 3-4 things to flip the paradigm and vault right back into it next year.
Adding some fresh thinking in the form of a new assistant coach may help. But don't think Joel Quenneville and Kevin Dineen haven't tried some things already with the talent they have.
The salary cap—and either an unwillingness or inability to address it in a corrective manner— has forced the Hawks to go really young—and really unprepared— on the bottom half of its roster. And even trying to fill key roles like the left wing slot on Toews' line.
When Jordin Tootoo is possibly the best forward in your bottom 6 in key playoff games, you have a serious depth problem.
That approach has failed.
Those 3-4 things Bowman needs to find a way to acquire are:
1) A elite speed left winger with top 6 skill
Essentially the replacement for Brandon Saad—or some realistic approximation of that—not a converted right wing, not a rookie who had great "youtubes" the year before in college hockey or junior.
Alex DeBrincat may have all kinds of promise as a scoring right winger, but he is most likely NOT this player. Just as another promising rookie, Nick Schmaltz was really not this top speed, natural left winger. Nor were Richard Panik, Ryan Hartman, Andrew Shaw, Marko Dano, Ryan Garbutt . . .
The closest prospect the Hawks have to this description is last year's camp phenom Alex Fortin. And it's probably asking a lot to think he can fill this role this year as a pro rookie.
2) At least one secondary faceoff option.
Toews is the only 50%+ center on the team. No one else, except Marcus Kruger, is even close. Kruger will probably be wearing another sweater next season. Meanwhile the team FO% has plummeted each of the last two seasons—and so has the penalty kill% and offensive zone possession. Connect the dots.
Again, there is no prospect or rookie from last season who comes to mind that can fill this role. Possibly Tanner Kero helps—but that remains to be seen.
3) Size, speed and snarl on the lower lines.
Maybe John Hayden is a start. But . . .
4) A backup goalie
Again, there is no prospect ready to fill in here.
It might seem like a long (and impossible to fill) shopping list, but consider that a guy like, oh, Colorado's Matt Duchene basically checks the first two boxes. And that's just one scenario.
It might seem like, with the Hawks' salary commitments and no-movement clauses, the team is hamstrung. Maybe. Maybe not. Clauses can be waived. It happens all the time. Value for value deals can benefit both clubs.
Some of the players holding those clauses might not be the answers themselves (looking at your faceoff percentage, Artem Anisimov).
Sometimes you can add by what seems to be subtraction.
But all of that requires some insight, hustle and creativity.
This is actually a "good news" blog. The Hawks are not completely locked in to a long, slow slide to mediocrity like the Red Wings of the last 8 years or so. They are closer to a return to the league's elite than some might think.
But the thinking of the front office (and possibly that of the fanbase in terms of acceptance) needs to change right now—if it hasn't already. And there is some rumor-based (at this point) evidence that it has.
it could be an interesting summer.
Oh, and, go Sens.
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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