Follow @jaeckel


Tight to the cap, with most of his roster set, Hawk GM Stan Bowman, if rumors are to be trusted, has been kicking tires around the league on depth forwards and defensemen.

The problem is, the rest of the league’s GMs know exactly the position Bowman’s in—and no one’s bending over backwards to give the Hawks a favorable deal. This is what I was told by my top source this morning.

Makes sense.

I heard confirmation from a second source now that the Hawks have inquired about Ottawa defenseman Patrick Wiercioch. I also heard this morning the name of Jarred Tinordi floated as well.

Deals are out there to be made, but the asking prices are too rich (right now) for the Hawks’ blood. My source went on to say that the team recognizes that there will be a cap-driven re-tool in the offseason and they are choosing to hold on to as many of their prospects as possible to position themselves well for next season.

This, also, seems to make sense.

But the proof is in the pudding, which largely depends on two factors. How well equipped the present roster is to make a long run in the playoffs. And how many prospects can be plugged in next year—and maintain the level of performance that Hawk fans have become accustomed to.

I ask you, readers (and Hawk fans, most of you anyway), how happy will you be, how happy will your fellow fans be, if the Hawks bow out in the first or second round this year, and then roll out a team without $5-10 million in veteran salaries, and therefore featuring 3-4 rookies or near-rookies in key roles?

First, sure, there’s no guarantee the Hawks will bow out in round 1 or 2. That said, while the Kings had a miserable start to the season, they are coming on strong now, the Ducks, Predators and Blues all improved in the offseason (and the Preds again recently with the Santorelli/Franson deal). And the much-improved Winnipeg Jets have pretty much owned Chicago this season.

Sure, swap out Michal Handzus for Brad Richards and this is essentially the same group of forwards that “was just a bounce away” from the Cup Finals last year.

But you’ve also swapped out Nick Leddy for some combination of David Rundblad, Kyle Cumiskey, Tim Erixon, or a wonky Trevor van Riemsdyk.

So the Hawks’ third pair, getting about ten mnutes a game against the league’s best teams in the playoffs, is the flawed Michal Rozsival and one of the above. And here’s what’s even scarier, the Hawks are then one injury away from Rozsival or one of the above getting top 4 minutes. And defensemen have a way of getting injured in the playoffs.

The bulk of evidence, regardless of the usual waves of the hand and pronouncements that the Hawks are the class of the West, suggests the Hawks have come back to the pack yet again, after coming back last year.

Which suggests that we are perhaps witnessing the beginning of a slow decline, especially if the team is forced to “go young” next year.

I’m willing to give Bowman the benefit of the doubt: I was never a huge fan of Jimmy Hayes, Brandon Pirri, Dylan Olsen, Adam Clendening or Jeremy Morin, whose results elsewhere have been mixed, though some (Hayes especially) definitely better than others. But I will also submit that some guys look like dynamite in junior or college or even AHL hockey and just never seem to do much in the NHL.

So by trading the aforementioned prospects and young players, and possibly doubling down on the current NHL roster for the playoffs, Bowman would be placing a lot of chips on Teuvo Teravainen, Klas Dahlbeck, Philip Danault, Mark McNeill and/or Stephen Johns as regular NHL players next year.

Year after year, decade after decade, the promise of prospects always seems to exceed what they eventually become.

It’s one thing to look at a depth chart and say, “yeah, TT will slide right into Brad Richards’ 2C spot next year.”

Except when you consider the practical reality: he was about 40% on faceoffs this year, before being moved to wing, before being sent back to Rockford.

My point in all this? There could be a much greater risk in standing pat than in stepping up and even overpaying slightly for some veteran help right now. The Hawks just won’t have to deal with the downside for another couple of years—when the real second guessing might take place.

The argument against not “trading away the future” gets trotted out at this time every year. But what exactly is the future?

I read those exact words on my message board thread three years ago, when I reported (several times) the Hawks were in on then Blue Jacket Jeff Carter, but the Jackets were asking a lot in terms of prospects and picks.

The Kings made the deal and won the Cup, the Hawks bowed out in round 1.

Sure, the Hawks won the Cup the following year, but it’s doubtful any of the assets the Jackets might have taken in exchange for Carter (beyond perhaps Brandon Saad) were key contributors in 2013—and Saad’s role was somewhat limited. The Hawks, for sure, did not have a sell-off and “go young” in the summer of 2012.

So what will we be saying about this trade season three years from now? To be continued . . .



JJ


Check out Hockey Streams. See NHL, AHL and CHL streamed in HD right to your computer, tablet or gaming device for a small donation: http://www.hockeystreams.com/ref/51981

Join the Discussion: » 342 Comments » Post New Comment

» Thanks and Farewell

» Where do we go from here?

» Preds at Hawks Breakdown

» "All Teams Have Flaws"

» The Games You Should Win