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The dust has settled. For now. |
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Clearly, a couple of weeks of inactivity seem to indicate that Stan Bowman's new HGTV series "Roster Re-no Chicago" has perhaps been canceled prematurely—or more likely suspended for the time being.
But production continues for a midseason return of this summer's hottest new show.
No obvious or even plausible NHL answers have emerged from Prospect Camp (though that was always unlikely).
And now that the hoopla of the fan convention has died down, if you step back and take stock of where we are, as I'm about to do, you can see where the improvement is, and where the holes still are.
I got a note this morning from a reader, asking why not move Artem Anisimov out to left wing with Jonathan Toews, bump Brandon Saad down to Patrick Kane's line and have, say Nick Schmaltz center the second oine.
Interesting thoughts, except I think Saad was brought back to Chicago specifically for his chemistry with Toews.
And it got me to thinking. The likely "lineup" from top to bottom at forward, is, in my opinion, deeper overall than it was last year—and the top 6 may, in theory at least, be better.
Why do I say that, some no doubt ask, because on paper, Saad will not replace (likely) the offense lost in one Artemi Panarin.
I say it because, as I've been saying all summer, it's more about chemistry and the perspective of the last few seasons.
An obvious fact of the last two seasons is that when Saad stepped onto that American Airlines CRJ-700 to Columbus two summers ago, a brilliant chemistry went with him. Granted, there were other factors. But this isn't just my opinion. When you look at the profile of players I've been told the Hawks pursued the last two years to replace Saad (Mikkel Boedker first, then later Matt Duchene) you see some critical similarity to Saad's game. Speed, two way play.
So now Saad is back. Marian Hossa, the other third of what was arguably the best line in hockey in the 2014-15 season is now gone, but it's fair to say he is at least plausibly somewhat replaced by his Slovak facsimile, Richard Panik.
So net-net, on Toews' line, I'm liking the chemistry versus last year, where the ongoing clown show audition at LW is now mercifully ended. This line will be fast, physical and at least as far as Toews and Saad, very strong cycling the puck in the o-zone.
Someone send Panik some "youtubes" of Hossa driving opposing defenders nuts on the puck—and we're good to go.
On to line 2, where Panarin's departure now leaves a void.
But here's the thing: in 2013 and 2015, Patrick Kane didn't exactly have an all-star show on his line either. Artem Anisimov is still there, for now at least doing, what he does.
So Bowman went out and got an aging and recently injured Patrick Sharp to fill the Panarin role—likely to start the season any way. See what Sharpie has left, fill in if he goes down or just has nothing left. The candidates there? Ryan Hartman, Tomas Jurco (assuming he shows a lot more than he did last year), Nick Schmaltz.
None of these guys are perfect in that role—but probably none of them needs to be. Sure, the team will miss Panarin's one-timer from the circle. But, again, history suggests, Kane at least, and his line as a whole, will be productive.
And assuming all this plays out, you won't be getting 40-45% of the team's offense from one line. You should get balanced scoring from two lines—a really good thing especially come playoff time, where, if Saad's helps ignite Toews and Panik, opposing coaches will have to pick their poison as far as how they match up their best defensive pairs—as they had to in 2013 and 2015, but not the last two postseasons.
Which leads to the problem for the Hawks. Defensive depth. But let me come back to that though, and finish on the forwards now.
I also like the work Bowman has done in the bottom 6, where last year too many minutes were allotted to rookies whose likely best NHL role is not as grinding, energy forwards. Or to a mysteriously regressed Andrew Desjardins, and the game, but slow Dennis Rasmussen.
As I've noted previously, we can debate ad infinitum the finer points of Lance Bouma's fancy stats playing in Calgary, but the new crew of Bouma, Tommy Wingels and Laurent Dauphin is made for those roles—and brings size, experience, some speed and aggression to the bottom 6.
There is an outlying (and probably underestimated) question with the forwards—who takes Marcus Kruger's defensive zone and penalty kill face-offs? After Toews—who really shouldn't and therefore can't be the answer here—no one on the roster is above 45% in the dot the last few years.
This is likely something that will be hashed out in camp, and possibly including a veteran PTO or two.
The team is pretty much set in goal with Corey Crawford and Anton Forsberg, who comes to Chicago with more pro experience and a richer resume' than Scott Darling did in 2015.
Then the defense.
Ummm, yeah, the defense.
If we're going to hearken back to 2013 and 2015 to talk about the positives in the forward group, then we need to conversely do so for the loss of critical depth on defense.
The reason the Hawks won a Cup in 2015 with the likes of Kyle Cumiskey, David Rundblad and a thoroughly used up Kimmo Timonen as their 5-7 on defense, was a top 4 of Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya.
The latter two are gone, replaced ostensibly this year by Connor Murphy and Michal Kempny. Let that sink in.
Good news: athletically, Murphy and Kempny can do a lot of things, but—to varying degrees—both lack the experience of the guys they are meant to replace or approximate, and both have rough edges to their games.
From 5-7, the issues compound. The only "sure" thing there is the infamous 3-Wheeled Jewel Shopping Cart, Michal Rozsival.
After Rozy: a grab bag of rookies and learners and recent Euro imports: Jordan Oesterle, Jan Rutta, Gustav Forsling.
Other than Rozy: the kinds of NHL options that give Joel Quenneville nightmares before they end up as AHL options.
If you’re going to pose matchup problems for opposing defenses in the playoffs, you better have the defensemen to match up on your roster as well.
So taken together, it would seem the Hawks will enter the season (at least) with serious defensive depth issues. But, the thing to remember is it’s much more important how you leave the season than how you enter it.
Above all, Bowman has time, and once Hossa goes on LTIR, he will have the money (remember, also the Hawks will have to send something the other way for an in-season acquisition, and some added cap hit may go the other way) to add on defense. Or add a left wing. And/or another faceoff taker/penalty killer. And it’s possible, especially this year, one of those lingering problem areas could be addressed through some veteran brought into camp on a PTO.
This is a big year for the Hawks and the direction of their organization. I would argue, it’s critical.
To Bowman’s credit, he didn’t wait this summer for history to write itself around him—or accept the conventional wisdom that the Hawks’ era as en elite team is just over—"it's someone else’s turn." He took bold moves (at least initially) to alter the narrative.
But the job is not done. For the first time in several seasons, the Hawks are not the odds-on favorites or nearly that to win the Cup.
A lot of the key pieces, however, are still there in Toews, Keith, Kane, Crawford—and the supporting cast and overall depth (at forward) has probably not been this good since the Cup years of 2013 and 2015.
All that said, the remaining core players are all another year older. Keith and Seabrook are 24 and 33 respectively.
The point is, Bowman still has work to do this year. This is not a rebuild (yet). It’s a serious retool/renovation on the fly.
But if it doesn’t work this year, with the laws of time and its effect on the bodies of pro athletes, Bowman may have to look at some more serious tear down and rebuild work starting as soon as next summer. Especially while some of those core assets still have some market value.
All for now,
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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