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Various reports out of Chicago this morning have the Hawks prepared to extend star forwards—and franchise cornerstones—Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane at $10.8 million a year, per player.

First, I would wait a bit before getting too wrapped up in that. It is quite possible, based on the number of sources reporting it, that the number is accurate.

However, I heard from a Hawk source a week or so ago that the number would be more like $9.5 million per player per year.

But whether the number is $9.5 million a year or $10.8 million a year, we know a few things: these two players are getting substantial raises, will consume a significant amount of money toward the cap every year, making the Hawks a very “top heavy” team in terms of overall payroll; the Hawks are likely counting on significant growth in the cap over the term of the contracts (rumored to be 8 years), and might have to move a couple of larger salaries to make it all work in 2015.

To my mind, this is a critical turning point in the history of this franchise.

Even with some growth in the cap for 2015, the two players will take up so much cap room it will definitely force harder decisions on depth players—and put to severe test GM Stan Bowman’s faith in a prospect pool that some—myself included—feel is a bit overrated.

While the legend of Teuvo Teravainen has mesmerized a vast swath of Blackhawk Nation, the fact remains he is 169 pounds and likely best replaces not Johnny Oduya or Marcus Kruger or possibly not even Brad Richards . . . but (somewhat) Kane himself. Though many have projected Teravainen as a center in the NHL, his best position could very well end up being RW.

Teravainen will be legitimately something in the NHL, but some Hawk fans seem to have elevated him into the same class as, say, a Nathan MacKinnon or a Jonathan Drouin and the evidence suggests, while he has undeniable talent, he is probably not physically ready for the NHL and might always be a perimeter player regardless.

Bowman now needs to hope, if not pray, that from among Teravainen, Mark McNeill, Philip Danault, Joakim Nordstrom, Ryan Hartman, Stephen Johns, Jeremy Morin, Klas Dahlbeck, Adam Clendening, and Nick Schmaltz at least a few quality NHL players emerge in the next 1-3 years. Because they will need to take the place of established quality NHL players like: Marcus Kruger, Johnny Oduya, Nick Leddy, Andrew Shaw, Patrick Sharp, etc.

And soon.

That will likely be the cost of the huge salary commitment about to be put forth to Kane and Toews—especially if $10.8 million per player, per year is to be believed.

There are those who buy the propaganda hook, line and sinker—propaganda that you can’t even really blame on the Hawks, its taken on a life of its own in the blogosphere—that the Hawks’ current prospect pipeline will produce players equal to those they have on their NHL roster.

This is unlikely. And that’s not pessimism. It’s just fact, based on the law of averages in NHL prospect development.

McNeill might end up not more than a bottom six winger. Scouts are divided on Johns, some see him as a 6-7 NHL defenseman. Danault did not set the world on fire offensively in his first pro season. Morin has defensive liabilities and a history of bad concussions. You think Kruger skates with his head down? Hartman and Schmaltz are small, and Hartman hasn't put up magical offensive numbers in junior either. Clendening looks a lot better coming up the ice than he does going back.

Some of these guys, Teravainen, Dahlback, Johns, Danault, McNeill, you can probably count on to be "something" in the NHL at some point. But again, is that something going to be better than the players they will need to replace?

Another way of looking at it is this. Even the most optimistic Hawk fans—who repeat the mantra that the 2014 Hawks were “just a bounce away” from the Stanley Cup Finals—will concede that the bottom half of the roster needed some tweaks and upgrades.

Those get harder to make when you have less cap room than you had in prior years, because of significant (and growing) cap commitments to the upper half of your roster.

If reports are to be believed, the Hawks will spend another $9 million against the cap in 2015-16—and not a dime of it goes to getting better.

In a salary cap world, this is the price of success. It just seems especially high right now for the Chicago Blackhawks.

I’ll have more tomorrow on the hiring of Jimmy Waite (this could be a great move, actually) as the Hawks’ goalie coach, and if there’s anything else to discuss.


JJ

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