I received a note the other day from a source inside the CBH/Wirtz Corp. corporate umbrella.
It seems there are a few indicators out there right now of softening demand for Hawk tickets—which the team seems to be either denying or spinning.
There are reports, for example, of stand alone tickets or package deals, teased with autographed pucks. And increasing frequency of season ticket waiting list members getting calls about openings.
None of this should be terribly surprising, and it certainly reinforces the “bloom is off the rose” narrative that’s taken hold around the Hawks franchise both inside and outside Chicago.
Along with it, some officials at the Hawks have attributed these “softenings” in demand to things like STH’s moving out of Chicago, or natural attrition, not a weakening of the draw of the brand.
Relevance and brand value were two things the Blackhawk franchise had struggled for over a 15 year span of utter futility—at least since the early 90s until about 2007, when those two phenomena began a powerful rebound, vaulting the Hawks to the pinnacle of pro sports in terms of brand recognition, brand equity, ticket and merchandise sales.
Some argued that rebound was simply organic, with the rise of the team’s fortunes on the ice. Others gave significant credit to marketing and branding strategies implemented by new owner Rocky Wirtz and Team President John McDonough.
In fact, it was both.
Look no further than the resurgence of Apple after about the year 2000 to see proof that improved product—hand-in-hand with brand stewardship—can have powerful results. The Hawks have been another stellar example over the last decade.
My sense today is, while the Hawks’ on-ice product is not what it was a couple of years ago, the team is nonetheless trying hard to salvage the relevance and power of the brand—especially in Chicago.
It’s purely business. The business of hockey in one of North America’s top 5 media markets.
Where I am not ready to go is to assume this is just the beginning or hastening of the end of the Hawk resurgence as we have come to know it.
It could be. But it also might not be.
In the end, whether it’s bringing back the once-exiled Pat Foley to call the games, finally televising home games, or fast forwarding to this summer and creative denials of a softening in local demand for tickets, the Hawk front office and marketing people will typically do the right things from that perspective.
But great marketing can destroy a brand through effective attraction of customers to a deficient product.
As the source who sent me the aforementioned note summarized: this is a huge year for this franchise. And it's all about the on-ice product.
The Hawks made some hard decisions this summer—somewhat motivated by the salary cap, somewhat guided by which higher-paid veterans had no-movement clauses and which didn’t.
I’ve written a lot of blogs over the last 6 weeks or so, analyzing the positives and negatives of the roster overhaul this summer.
It’s almost impossible to imagine that with all these changes—all the swaps of proven veteran talent for younger, less quantifiable talent—the Hawks will jump back into contention for a Cup in 2017-18.
There, I said it.
But what GM Stan Bowman may be looking for through this season is enough growth and maturation in investments like Nick Schmaltz, Connor Murphy, Michal Kempny, Jan Rutta, or possibly even an Alex Debrincat or Alex Fortin—where 2018-19 could be a big year for the Hawks.
Some are viewing Bowman’s moves this offseason as purely another cap-driven talent sell-off, but there are some subtle ways where he has also clearly improved some deficiencies the team has suffered from the last two seasons (weakness and lack of depth at LW—which hurt scoring balance, declining overall team speed, inexperience and a lack of grit on the bottom 6).
So the team is hoping for enough growth and maturation to perhaps re-invigorate the fanbase and ticket demand.
Will it work? That’s the question we’ve been asking all summer and we are obviously no closer to an answer. But, to me, if the team is being realistic, perhaps the best-case scenario is this:
October through December are rough months, with some fits and starts, adjustments on the ice and to the roster (including some LTIR backfill of Marian Hossa’s cap hit), but the team begins to gel some time early in 2018 and hits its stride in time for a long-ish—and promising—playoff run.
And like they say, once you’re at the dance, anything can happen.
Certainly, there’s also a worst-case scenario—and lots of in-betweens as well.
And if ticket and merchandise demand doesn’t get a shot in the arm this season, then you can likely expect—for business reasons as much as purely hockey ones—more dramatic changes next summer.
I will be on The Puckin Hostile Shoutcast, likely posting late tonight to iTunes, discussing this and probably some angles on training camp, etc with Gatekeeper and Matt Zawaski from the 312 Podcast. I will try to post a link on the message board and definitely on Twitter.
All I have for now.
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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