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Rundblads On The Pond/Hawks in 6 |
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“I think he’s been fine in his own end.”
—Blackhawk head Coach Joel Quenneville on newly inserted 6th defenseman David Rundblad
Well, what else is he supposed to say?
The fact is, Rundblad hasn’t been that, and Q knows it, as do Bruce Boudreau and the rest of the Anaheim Ducks. Which is why the Hawks will follow the Kimmo Timonen prescription with Rundblad—he’ll play limited minutes, likely alongside 2-time Norris Trophy winner Duncan Keith.
Where Rundblad can and should help is on the power play, where he can be a real weapon. If the Ducks take 3-4 penalties in a given game, that’s where Rundlbad can add some value and give Brent Seabrook or Patrick Sharp a break.
The Hawks went with sticks in this decision: opting for the right-handed Rundblad to replace the right-handed Michal Rozsival.
As many readers know, I have not been “high” on Rundblad. But let me be clear, this is a guy with some skills.
Skating is not one of them. Then again, he’s probably faster than the 3-Wheeled Jewel shopping cart (Or is it Dominick’s? Whatever works . . .) Rozsival. Rundblad can pass the puck and he can shoot it.
Where Rundblad has driven me (and others) to the point of apoplexy is how squeezably-soft he is on the puck, especially deep in his own end. He has seemed at times to just give up when he is engaged by an opposing forward on a puck he possesses—that is until it’s easily taken away from him. This is the kind of thing that leads quickly to goals and breaks the spirit of a team.
And trust me, this is something the Ducks, led by Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler among others, are going to try to do to Rundblad at every opportunity.
It’s up to Rundblad to really compete in those situations—and maybe salvage a once-promising career.
But the truth is, if Q can succeed in sheltering Rundblad, as he did with Timonen (a tougher job now minus Rozsival’s 15-20 minutes a game), the point becomes kind of minor in terms of the overall series.
And that breaks down as follows:
SEASON SERIES
Chicago 2-1
THE GOALIES
In the playoffs, Fredrik Andersen has stellar numbers: 8-1-1, 1.96 GAA, .925 save%. His counterpart, Corey Crawford, is 5-1, with a 2.60 GAa and a .916 save%.
In the regular season, Andersen was 35-12-5 with a 2.38 GAA and a .914 save%. Crawford was 32-20-5 with a 2.27 GAA and a .924 save%.
A couple of fairly big caveats: Crawford was mostly miserable in Round 1 versus Nashville, and brilliant in Round 2 versus Minnesota. If form holds, this comparison is Round 2 Crawford versus Overall Playoff Andersen.
And form should hold; this is Crawford’s third WCF and he has won a Stanley Cup.
SLIGHT EDGE: CHICAGO
CHICAGO POWER PLAY VERSUS ANAHEIM PENALTY KILL
Regular season Ranks:
Chicago, 20th 17.6%
Anaheim, 15th 81.0%
Playoffs:
Chicago, 5th 20%
Anaheim, 5th 85%
EVEN
ANAHEIM POWER PLAY VERSUS CHICAGO PENALTY KILL
Regular Season:
Anaheim, 28th 15.7%
Chicago, 10th 83.4%
Playoffs:
Anaheim 1st 31.0%
Chicago, 12th 72.7%
SLIGHT EDGE: ANAHEIM
5-ON-5
Regular Season:
Chicago, 4th 1.13
Anaheim, 15th 1.04
Playoffs:
Anaheim, 1st 1.69
Chicago, 3rd 1.21
ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO
BEHIND THE NUMBERS
Before the 2nd Round, I pointed out that the leading scorer in the season series between Chicago and Minnesota had been Patrick Kane—and by a wide margin. I went on to say that I felt the resurgence/recovery of Kane, evidenced throughout the first round versus Nashville, would tip the second round to Chicago. It did. Kane was brilliant, and is on-pace, assuming Chicago would win the Cup, to be a slam-dunk for the Conn Smythe Trophy,
Same news here. Kane had 4 goals in 3 games versus the Ducks. Patrick Sharp had 4 assists. Looking at the box scores of those games, you see a clear pattern: the Ducks really struggled to contain the Hawks’ second line.
Broken-record time.
The playoffs are all about matchups. And the matchups favor Chicago. It’s not that Perry and Getzlaf aren’t great players. They are. I am a fan of Ryan Kesler’s game. I’d love to have Nate Thompson on my team. The Ducks are pretty strong up front and especially down the middle. But the Blackhawks went out over the summer and got stronger down the middle as well.
I can’t predict who will win more faceoffs this series, because both teams are really good in the dot. But I can say that adding Brad Richards and Antoine Vermette (warts and all) has made the Blackhawks an even better team upfront (and especially down the middle) than they were last May, when they came within a bounce of the Stanley Cup Finals.
For every team that faces Chicago over a 7-game series, it’s pick your poison. Send your top defense pairing out against a line that rivals or perhaps even surpasses Perry and Getzlaf’s (Saad-Toews-Hossa), and then you have to deal with the NHL’s most dynamic scorer—and ultimate playoff performer—on the Hawks’ next line in Kane. And the third line features a perennial 30-goal scorer in Sharp.
And Keith is the best offensive weapon on the blueline in this series, in addition to being a great positional defenseman.
Conversely, The Blackhawks have the luxury of two “top” pairs—where Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya are often sent out to successfully shut down opponent’s top lines. And then there’s Seabrook and Keith. To be fair, Seabrook and Keith will have to be “shelter” for Timonen and Rundblad in this series, and that could limit their effectiveness.
The Ducks feasted on mediocre to weak goalies in the first two rounds; Chicago clearly beat or shredded two Vezina finalists.
The coaching matchup favors Chicago as well—Joel Quenneville knows how to squeeze the utmost out of his team and on-ice situations in the playoffs; Bruce Boudreau has been characterized in the past as not the greatest in-game tactician.
I take Chicago, in 6 games.
JJ
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