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Positional Evaluation: Forwards |
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OVERALL GRADE: C-
I think this will seem very harsh to some. But there’s a fair amount of evidence to support the notion that the problem with the Hawks this past year—a problem that was fairly concealed until the playoffs—began upfront.
It all started out reasonably well, didn’t it? Certainly the Hawks had a rough initial start to the season, but then they caught fire a bit—a fire that re-ignited a couple more times over the course of the season.
But for all intents and purposes, throughout the season, the Hawks were a one-line team: Panarin-Anisimov-Kane.
Nearly 42% of their 211 goals scored by forwards came from the AK72 line.
That says enough by itself.
Yes, they got around 20 goals or more from Marian Hossa, Jonathan Toews, Richard Panik and Ryan Hartman, but a consistent top 6 line could never be formed from those four players—in large part because none of them is a natural left wing.
Which mitigates the bad grade above. Because that belongs squarely on the shoulders of Stan Bowman and the front office. The glaring hole on the left flank did not catch the team by surprise this year. It was the same problem the team had the previous year.
The answer was “we like our prospects.” Unfortunately, only one of those, Tyler Motte, is a left wing. And he clearly wasn’t ready for the NHL, much less a top 6 role.
But there’s more to this story. Another telling number:
The Hawks finished 29th in the league in faceoffs at 47.5%. I know, I know, “faceoffsssss don’t matter none.”
But, yeah, they do.
Consider the Hawks 24th ranked penalty kill. Think faceoffs don’t matter on the PK? If so, stop thinking that, and no one should have to explain it to you.
Offensive zone possession. Again, faceoffs really matter.
Let’s look at it in context. In 2015-16, the Hawks finished 22nd in faceoffs at 49.3%. In 2014-15, the last year they won the Cup? 8th in the league at 52%.
And yes, over that 2-year decline, offensive zone possession also declined as did the PK (in direct correlation, by the way).
Sure, there are other, harder to quantify issues with the PK and the Hawks failure to keep opponents’ working in their own end this past season—and especially the playoffs.
One is the Hawks seemed smaller and slower upfront this past year than they have been in a long time. From 2011 to 2016, Bryan Bickell and Andrew Shaw did a lot of physical damage to opponents and that was never replaced.
Shaw, Marcus Kruger and Andrew Desjardins formed a nasty fourth line in the 14-15 playoffs that simply never materialized this past season.
Sure, you could point to Panik’s 22 goals, or Hartman’s 19, or the occasional flashes from Nick Schmaltz, as proof that the “youth movement” was all that it was made out to be. But all that regular season smoke and mirrors went poof in the playoffs when the Hawks had no answer for the speed, energy, size and, yes, pro experience over four lines that the Predators threw at them.
Watch the few teams remaining in the playoffs and notice how many goals are manufactured by outside speed getting the puck deep, with possession, causing the defense to turn and adjust, often leaving a trailer wide open in the slot. Over the last couple of seasons, the Hawks have become the victims of this instead of the victimizers.
They lack the outside speed/skill of previous years (and that’s precisely why the team has pursued first Mikkel Boedker and then Matt Duchene the last two trade deadlines—even though some find that so difficult to believe—hey, America is the now the land of believing what you want) to create those disruptions and opportunities.
And outside Anisimov, they don’t really have the consistent net front presence that Shaw (definitely) and Bickell (sometimes) provided.
Hence, the Hawks became a slow, plodding and all too predictable perimeter team in the offensive zone.
The Hawks’ forwards got by in the regular season, relying heavily on AK72 overcoming aggregate league-average defense and the ability to load up in 3-on-3 or win shootouts. Not terribly differently from 2015-16.
And they got the same result when the playoffs and opposing defenses that went 4-6 deep in terms of quality rolled around. It just took 4 humiliating games this year, versus 7 tantalizing ones in 2016.
INDIVIDUAL REVIEWS
Jonathan Toews
GRADE: C
Games 72
Goals/Assists 21/37
Corsi For% (all situations) 51.69%
As with the defensive player reviews, I am basing this grade on expectations. One big mitigator for Toews is he played much of the season through a back injury. Once “healthy,” his game took off and we saw glimpses of the Toews of old. But Toews struggled in the playoffs, as a lot of Hawks did, although he was one of the few Hawks to actually score against Nashville.
The notion that, at age 28, an elite player’s game falls off a cliff because (choose all that you think apply): a) he no longer cares, b) he is physically broken down c) he was never that good to begin with . . . just doesn’t pass the sniff test.
But there are legitimate questions surrounding Toews. Is his back a larger issue? How much has it hampered him the last two seasons? He came into camp this year very lean, looking to have dropped 5-10 pounds. Was he too lean? Did he drop the weight to take pressure off his back?
Another summer of rest and perhaps medical attention and/or a different approach to training and diet may have a positive effect. Toews is now 29. And like Duncan Keith, when completely healthy, there should be few better. I would bet on that, assuming Toews is 100% healthy come October.
The other issue is, sorry fans, an out of position Nick Schmaltz and Richard Panik are NOT Brandon Saad and Marian Hossa.
While we elevate Patrick Kane to “best player in the game status,’ and downgrade Toews to “bum,” we forget, Kane is playing with two solid to exceptional linemates who are not playing over their heads or out of position.
Patrick Kane
GRADE B+
82
34/55
51.51%
Kane was Kane this season. He is what he is, arguably the most creative, potent RW in the game. As the Hawks became more and more a perimeter team this season, and too predictable at times even on Kane’s line, we saw where he has some limits.
Artemi Panarin
GRADE B-
82
31/43
54.56%
Panarin also was “fine” in his sophomore season. The slight downgrades are because you expected him to step up perhaps to another level, when in fact, his game sort of stagnated. Whether it was the coaching staff, linemates or what, it seemed at times that Panarin was a one-timer machine from the left circle—with predictably good and predictably bad results, depending on how well the other team game-planned for it. I personally had hoped to see more of what Panarin could do with the puck his blade down low—not unlike the scenario I outline above, using his speed to get wide on defenders and force them to turn and defend, creating openings for Anisimov or a pinching defenseman in the slot. Panarin racked up some nice numbers—but when the Hawks really needed the AK72 line to rise up in the playoffs, they didn’t. And Panarin’s predictability is partially to blame for that.
Marian Hossa
GRADE B+
73
26/19
48.86%
Let’s face it, Hossa is slowing down. But a slowed down Hossa still found the twine 26 times this year, cracking the 500-goal plateau for his Hall of Fame career. And Hossa scored many of those goals playing with Hartman, marcus Kruger and Vince Hinostroza, two rookies and a defensive forward. Hossa can also still turn on the jets and backcheck like few others.
Artem Anisimov
Grade B-
64
22/23
55.07%
Anisimov stabilized and supported Kane and Panarin through another strong season. Clearly, and to his credit, he played through an injury in the playoffs and wasn’t himself. As a player, Anisimov is not , remotely, the problem with this team—except for the fact that as a center, he is horrible on faceoffs and not very fast vertically up and down the ice. Stan Bowman has a tendency to double down on his more controversial decisions—and giving Anisimov a big contract with a NMC a full year before he absolutely had to is one of those decisions. The Hawks frankly need more from t5hier highly paid #2 center, especially killing penalties and winning key faceoffs. Anisimov was 45.1% in the regular season, and 29.9% in the playoffs (though injury may have limited him there).
Marcus Kruger
Grade D+
70
5/12
50.75%
Kruger struggled through the regular season, and as a result, so did the Hawks’ penalty kill and faceoff%. Still, Kruger contributed more in both areas than Anisimov did. All that said, Kruger is not paid really to do much else. A player who once could be counted on for 52%+ in the dot, a 2015-16 wrist surgery has clearly hindered him since. In fairness to Kruger, he was one of few Hawks to have a “good” playoff series versus Nashville, where he was typically noticeable and his line was often the Hawks’ best.
Richard Panik
GRADE A-
82
22/22
49.56%
Panik exceeded everyone’s expectations in 2016-17, racking up 22 goals and 23 assists, and leading the team in hits. Panik is everything the Hawks need more of: size and speed, skill and sandpaper. Some of his goals were of the fluky or tap-in variety. But it is also testament to Panik’s willingness to go where the easier goals are—through traffic and in front of the net.
Ryan Hartman
GRADE B+
76
19/12
53.04%
Hartman also was a pleasant surprise in his first full season in the NHL. Sort of Andrew Shaw Lite, Hartman exhibited perhaps a bit more skill and hockey sense (and less dumb penalties of over-aggression) than Shaw. On the flip side, Shaw was more of a factor physically than Hartman is.
Nick Schmaltz
GRADE B
61
6/22
49.73%
It was really a tale of two rookie seasons for Schmaltz. After struggling mightily to adapt and respond to NHL physicality in the first part of the season, Schmaltz was sent down to Rockford. There were varying (and some not terribly complimentary) reports on Schmaltz’ attitude and demeanor while in Rockford, Regardless, when he returned to Chicago later in the season, he played as though he meant to stay. Tried at all three forward positions, Schmaltz is a pass-first player with a knack for penetrating the zone, finding open ice and recognizing opportunities. Thus his best NHL position may be center. At the same time, that is arguably the toughest forward position to learn and excel at in the NHL. A knock on Schmaltz is he must get physically stronger and more effective along the wall. And while his skating is sound, he is yet another Hawk forward who lacks both size/physicality and elite speed to beat NHL defenders wide.
Tanner Kero
GRADE B
47
6/10
47.24%
Again, these grades are based on expectations, which were not high going into the season for Kero—and he exceeded them. All that said, Kero is the latest example of Hawk fans over-hyping and over-estimating a young player. Kero is a nice enough lower line player. The question is, what kind of player can he be for a successful Hawk team going forward. Some have conveniently defaulted to the notion that he will “replace” Kruger (who may well be back in the Indianhead next season anyway). Kero is a decent, willing defensive player—but not shown to be Kruger’s equal in that regard. And he is at best inconsistent in the faceoff dot. And he’s also not a legitimate top 6 style player. Good kid, good effort, some NHL skill, but the jury is really out still.
Dennis Rasmussen
GRADE C+
68
4/4
48.77%
Moose is what he is, a big, plodding, solid effort depth forward with some versatility. Another would be “Kruger replacement,” he is really a nice grinding winger at best.
Jordin Tootoo
GRADE B
50
2/1
49.02%
Again, based strictly on expectations, this grade might be higher. Tootoo was the consummate veteran professional this season, embracing and delivering on his role this season. When the Hawks needed someone to call out an opponent and take the lumps, Tootoo did. On the ice, he’s not making anyone forget Denis Savard, but he generally makes the smart play and worksd ahrd along the wall.
Vince Hinostroza
GRADE B-
49
6/8
47.19%
Hawk fans, this one’s on you. There were times this year when the Hino Hype got waaaaayyyyy out of control, with 60-point projections thrown out for a guy who got 18 goals in the AHL the previous season. Hinostroza gave the Hawks a lot of energy and racked up a few goals with his speed and effort. He is tough to play against and like Panik, he has some qualities the Hawks could use some more of. He also struggled mightily getting the puck out of his zone, “undershadowed” only at times by Schmaltz and Motte. All that said, his ultimate high-end upside is likely a Darren Helm/Kris Draper style player, not Martin St. Louis or Theo Fleury—or anything really close to that.
Andrew Desjardins
GRADE D
46
0/1
50.7%
Likely due to some kind of injury, Desi has become a shell of the lunch pail fan favorite he was two years ago.
LOOKING AHEAD
If the Hawks are to improve their performance in 2017-18, it will be through upgrading the forward positions without subtracting too much at goalie and defense.
Specifically, they could use a top six quality left wing with speed, another center or wing who’s 50%+ in the dot, more size and speed up and down the roster (preferably with NHL experience).
I’m not sure how Stan Bowman gets it done—especially after jettisoning Scott Darling from the goalie ranks—but a few things are clear:
1) This is Bowman’s team and his group of forwards. No one else can really be held as much or more responsible for the salary cap situation, draft picks, prospect development. So it’s his situation to figure out.
2) Making something from nothing is what great GMs do. For the first time really, in Bowman’s tenure, his team is clearly a notch (or two) below the best in the league, and most of the shortfall is in the forwards.
3) Heavy reliance on rookies, on top of a lot of second year forwards, will likely compound the problems, not fix them.
The Latest Prospect Panacea is OHL scoring phenom Alex DeBrincat. Debrincat is a highly skilled right wing, and can also play some center. In junior. He is also tiny and has never played any pro hockey. He is basically an unknown commodity as a pro and likely not any kind of answer for the Hawks in 2017-18.
John Hayden showed some flashes in the latter stages of the regular season before getting knocked out (perhaps literally) from the playoffs with what was believed to be a concussion. Hayden presents some of the qualities (size, wililngess and some skill) the Hawks lack. And he now has a bit of pro experience to boot.
Another prospect to watch is left wing Alexandre Fortin, who burst onto the scene at last fall’s Hawk training camp. Fortin can skate, pass and finish, and do so with and against pro players. At least, he has shown some early and limited evidence of it. Still, he has never been that productive (unlike Debrincat) as a junior player. Fortin is, also, a left wing with speed and skill—something the Hawks desperately need.
Motte’s AHL season was ended prematurely by injury. Like a lot of younger players, including likely all of the aforementioned prospects, he still has an adjustment to make in terms of play without the puck in pro hockey.
Expect most or all of these players to re-stock a woefully bad (last year) Rockford club this fall, under a new head coach.
Up next, the coaches.
All for now,
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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