There is a difference between each.
NEWS
A day after getting nearly $5 million in cap relief (good news), the Hawks (or at least their fans) got the bad news: $3 million in performance bonuses will count against the upcoming season's cap, most of which go to Artemi Panarin, but smidgens to two players who either definitely or likely won't be with the team this season: Teuvo Teravainen and Michal Rozsival.
Rozsival, you say? Apparently (paraphrasing the message board winner from yesterday) there was an "if your leg doesn't fall off" clause in his deal last season.
And this morning, some good news (verging on rumor, but more likely news) it appears the NHLPa will exercise their escalator, which would put next year's cap at around $74 million.
RUMOR
I've heard from my top source a couple of times in the last 48 hours. In spite of the first couple of bits of news, the Hawks are sort of in a holding pattern until the last bit is confirmed: the actual cap number for 2016-17.
Quoting: "The CAP. The CAP. The CAP. It all comes down to the cap."
I heard last night that the team and RFA Andrew Shaw's agent, Pat Brisson, are "far from a done deal."
And that the team, while not actively shopping Corey Crawford, is getting calls from "multiple" teams—and it appears if a deal were to get done, a first-round draft pick might be the price. The source specifically mentioned the deal that moved Cory Schneider from Vancouver to New Jersey for a #9 overall pick (Bo Horvat, a nice young player), as an example of what might happen—should the team decide to move Crawford's $6 million salary.
For background, I blogged about 5-6 weeks ago that I'd heard from a (different) source, that the Hawks were exploring the possibilities of moving Teravainen (done), Shaw (a definite possibility depending on how the next week proceeds), and Crawford.
The team also, I'm told, will make a hard run at Jimmy Vesey. But evidence suggests that's a longshot; Vesey is likely going to end up in Boston.
OPINION
As I have said previously, this might be Stan Bowman's toughest offseason. He has a lot to accomplish and not much to work with.
He scored one minor coup by inking Michal Kempny out of the KHL. All indicators are that, at bare minimum, Kempny will provide competent left-side depth on the blue line. The upside is he could be that replacement for Johnny Oduya that the Hawks missed (sorely) all last season.
There is a real disconnect and a rift right now, in terms of perception, within the Hawk fan base, over what this team was last year and what it should be next year. I would argue almost a majority of fans think last year's team was a Cup-quality team—it just got some bad bounces.
But the Hawks had a glaring hole at left wing last year, especially on Jonathan Toews' port flank. Toews and Marian Hossa had bad years after linemate Brandon Saad was shipped off to Columbus. The Hawks were at best an average team 5-on-5, underwater most of the year, which is almost unimaginable for a defending Cup champion, and their defensive numbers were sub-par (for what has been one of the league's best defensive teams since 2008).
Bowman made a couple of nice moves at the trade deadline—and aggressive ones—especially acquiring Andrew Ladd, who by the end of round 1 of the playoffs, had started to really gel with Toews and Hossa. But it was almost too little too late.
And now Ladd is likely going to cash in elsewhere.
And it doesn't matter, really, if some fans want to cling desperately to the idea that this team is still as good as the three Cup teams with a small tweak here and there—making no huge moves necessary.
My information, and my opinion, is the team sees the holes and they know full well where they stand relative to the elite teams right now.
They know they really need to get a deal done with Artemi Panarin, that will cost in excess of $5 m ill ion per year. They'd like to extend Shaw, which will definitely be more than $2.5 million per year, maybe a million a year or more higher. And those moves are only to shore up last year's roster—there's no "acquisition" there that fills holes and improves the club.
So this summer, like last summer, essentially. Bowman is now in a cap hole, trying to meaningfully fill holes left by losing players to the cap. Sort of like bailing out the Titanic with an empty bleach bottle.
It forces harder decisions. It might mean subtracting a popular player with a big salary in order to be able to add. Seems counterintuitive. But it really depends on your scouting—of both your own players and prospects, as well as those of teams you might trade with, or free agents you might add.
I will also share that I have heard from three different sources, going back to February 2015, that the Hawks have been quietly exploring the possibility of dealing Crawford, in anticipation of the cap mess they face today. You may argue whether that's a smart move on the ice until you're blue in the face. I am not here to argue it. Because it's about money. And because I don't know what the Hawks Plan B might be. Nor do you.
And again, while the notion of the UC net being filled by Goalie X may cause terror, my "opinion" is you should take solace that, like with the Brandon Saad deal last year, Stan Bowman is doing his homework—and preparing for all eventualities. As worried as you might be about Goalie X or who might fill Shaw's roles, know that the team has thought long and hard about it, and if it were to come to pass, they have a more robust scouting apparatus than any of us.
So when I hear the news about the cap, and dead cap space from performance bonuses, and the rumor that Shaw or Crawford might be moved, that's where my opinion comes in: follow the money. And this summer, there could be one, maybe even more than one, surprise move coming.
All I have for now,
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»