Death, taxes and the Joel Quenneville line blender. There are few things in life that hold as much certainty.
So, in many ways, the content of this blog is purely speculation and subject to change. On a moment’s notice.
All that said, there are a lot of guesses out there in the Hawk blogosphere as to how the Hawks lines and pairings will shake out this season. I’m going to offer here how I see it—and try to provide some more context than just slapping names into slots.
FORWARDS
LINE 1
(and to be clear, LINE 2 could just as easily be LINE 1, which is probably a good thing).
Saad-Toews-Panik
This line is as engraved in stone as any of them, probably more so.
In Panik’s revelatory season last year, he was clearly more productive when playing with Toews (which, by the way, at least somewhat mitigates the argument that Toews doesn’t make those around him better).
On the other side of Toews, Saad helped form what was arguably the league’s most productive/difficult to play against line from 2013-2015. The chemistry between Saad and Toews is almost undeniable.
So Panik takes the place of the now 38 year old Marian Hossa. Beyond the fact that he’s blond, Slovakian, and a pretty amazing physical specimen, comparisons between Hossa and Panik are almost unfair. Still, stylistically, and in terms of some now proven ability, Panik should be just fine with 20 and 19.
Were Panik to falter? You might see Ryan Hartman or Patrick Sharp tried at 1RW.
LINE 2
Sharp-Anisimov-Kane
The only real question mark is the 35 year old Sharp, who is coming off an injury plagued season last year, a fairly recent hip surgery—and was a third line player when last seen in a Hawk sweater.
If Sharp has some tread left on the tire, if he can still skate and shoot, then he is the logical choice here. Left wing is his best forward position. He is primarily a shooter and an opportunist, so his game nicely complements Kane and Anisimov. He is also a pretty good fill-in faceoff guy, a nice attribute on any line centered by Anisimov.
But what if Sharp can’t answer the bell at some point? A lot of lineups out there have Nick Schmalltz penciled in at 2LW, but I think the more likely candidate would be Ryan Hartman.
Neither Hartman nor Schmaltz are natural left wings, but Hartman looked a lot more comfortable there last year than Schmaltz did. And Hartman’s game is a little more like Sharp’s—he’s an underrated (by some) shooter and he does something else that Schmaltz can’t: agitate, draw the attention of opponent’s trouble making players, and if necessary, step in and somewhat protect Kane.
Some think that calculus is no longer relevant in the NHL; ask players themselves and they will tell you otherwise. Specifically, Kane likes to have players around him who will take the target of opponents’ miscreants off his back. Hartman can and will do that job. Sharp also is not afraid to engage and set boundaries, though Hartman is a lot more willing and able to follow through.
LINE 3
(this is where it gets tricky)
Jurco-Schmaltz-Wingels
(or, Hartman-Kero-Wingels)
Tommy Wingels, like Hartman, is a shooter, and with the crafty, playmaking Schmaltz in the middle, this could be a surprisingly effective third line for Chicago—and a minor matchup problem for other teams. Also, Wingels and/or Hartman provide some measure of protection for the still physically immature Schmaltz who is often, like Kane, a target of physical abuse.
And, yes, Tanner Kero may just be the guy who centers this line, and not Schmaltz. I will just say this: Schmaltz has the much higher upside as an NHL center, even though Kero is more physically mature at this point. The Hawks flopped Schmaltz around at wing last year, but at some point, they will need to give him the reins at one of the center positions—and see if he can fulfill his highest upside. Schmaltz has the potential in his vision, hands and style to be a really good NHL center. His potential is not as high on the wing.
Most of these kids have played center and wing—all have some offensive ability—lining them up together gives Joel Quenneville a lot of versatility within the line depending on the situation.
Yeah, you could maybe see a John Hayden or a Vinnie Hinostroza on this line (if either are on the team or anything more than a 13th forward), or even less likely an Alex DeBrincat or an Alex Fortin, but this seems to be a natural grouping that makes sense.
LINE 4
(a bit of a crap shoot—but again, a testament to the Hawks improved overall forward depth and having enough guys at all three forward positions)
My guess here is Q is going to try to somewhat recreate the awesome 2015 “fourth” line (Desjardins/Kruger/Shaw). I’m not sure he has the pieces and parts to do that. But from what he has available—a remaining group of forwards including Kero, Lance Bouma, Hayden, Hinostroza, Jordin Tootoo, Laurent Dauphin—he has some flexibility. So let’s say:
Tough to play against:
Bouma-Dauphin-Tootoo
Speed:
Hayden-Dauphin-Hinostroza
Or maybe Hartman or Wingels drops down here and you can go with a closer approximation of the 2015 4th line:
Bouma-Kero-Hartman
DEFENSE
1ST PAIR
Keith-Murphy
This, also feels like a given. On defense, you have less flexibility in terms of flopping guys from one side to the other: some defensemen can play either side, but most can’t (or at least prefer not to). So Murphy as a top 4 RD, seems to make the most sense with Keith. And, voila, there was a hole created alongside Keith with the trade that brought Murphy to Chicago.
2nd PAIR
Kempny-Seabrook
The only real debate here is whether Gustav Forsling steps up and wrestles this job away from Kempny. That might be something the Hawks would like to see happen for a couple of reasons—but also seems like a longer bet based on what we have seen to this point.
Were Forsling to take a major step up this year, and slide in alongside Seabrook forming an effective second pair, Kempny could then play alongside one of two countrymen: Michal Rozsival or Jan Rutta.
But, Kempny’s numbers were actually pretty good playing with Seabrook last year—which speaks to an underappreciated effectiveness in Seabrook’s game perhaps not as well evidenced by his own numbers. Much of the last two seasons, Seabrook has been Quenneville’s designated babysitter: playing large parts of both seasons with Viktor Svedberg, Erik Gustafsson and Kempny. There’s a reason for that that runs contrary to the “Seabrook’s game fell off a cliff” narrative that some have pushed.
What is perhaps an intriguing question here is whether new assistant coach Ulf Samuelsson, replacing Mike Kitchen as the defensive assistant, will follow the same formula and make similar choices.
3rd PAIR
Anyone’s guess, but let’s say:
Forsling-Rozsival
Well, at least it’s better than what the Hawks won the Cup with in 2015, which was basically Kyle Cumiskey and the ghost of Kimmo Timonen.
The Marian Hossa LTIR situation seems to have thrown a monkey wrench in Stan Bowman’s offseason work—and we now await the likely disposition of that situation—Hossa going on LTIR after the season starts, and Bowman backfilling the roster with his $5.25 million in freed up cap space. Which, in all likelihood, will mean acquiring one NHL experienced defenseman (at minimum).
The humorous irony of seeing Rozsival on a scooter in offseason interviews underscores how acute the need is for Bowman to add some reasonable depth to his blueline corps. My educated guess here is that there is no “readily available” proven, top 4 defenseman that Bowman can go out and acquire for a box of tape in the first half of the season.
The dynamics of the trade market at that point in the season, and the asking price for that type of player, seem to make that unlikely. What is more likely is Bowman will try to bring in TVR 2.0 (and maybe TVR 1.0 will suffice): a younger, but NHL-experienced depth guy who can play either side—like a Jon Merrill, TVR, or (less likely) a Nate Schmidt. This gives Quenneville and Samuelsson some more reliable depth and flexibility from 4-7 on the blueline depth chart.
But, if Rozy can still lace ‘em up and lurch his way around the ice, he is the on-ice assistant coach that Quenneville loves to have. He can complement, from the right side, more mobile, puck-moving left-siders like Kempny or Forsling. At least part-time.
Rutta is the unknown commodity. He’s a right-handed guy and has never played much, if at all, on the smaller North American ice sheet. And as a likely RD, he probably doesn’t fit on the ice with countryman Rozsival.
But, a Kempny-Rutta pairing could make some sense at some point. Perhaps Kempny can help acclimate fellow Czech Rutta to North America—although judging the ice and gaps seemed to be an issue for Kempny last year in his first season in North America. But both players complement eachother’s sticks and both can push the puck up the ice with speed— and shoot it.
I’m sure this will all ignite "robust" message board discussion.
I’ll be back this weekend with more on the 2017-18 team.
All for now,
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»