I started my Nashville-Chicago prediction blog with a quote from Joe Friday of Dragnet: “Just the facts.”

And I’m sticking to that for this blog, where I’ll look at Vancouver-Chicago and make a prediction.

Let’s get something straight first. Call me a homer. Call me Ishmael. Call me what you like. But I’d prefer you bring facts to the table to dispute the facts I’m about to lay out.

If the Hawks were, say, the on-ice equivalent of the Kings or the Avalanche, regardless of where my heart is, my head would take Vancouver in this series.

But the Hawks aren’t the on-ice equivalent of those teams. They’re better than those teams. And the argument can be made, they’re better than the Canucks.

That said, this series will prove it, one way or the other. And no, I don’t think the Hawks are that much better than the Canucks at all.

First of all, when comparing two teams in a series, I don’t compare forwards to forwards, defense to defense and goalie to goalie.

I compare one teams offense and lines versus the other team’s forward defense, defensive pairings and goalie. And vice versa.

I look at the defense contributed by forwards and the offense contributed by defensemen.

And I look at the aggregate numbers that the team produces.

When I look at those matchups and numbers between these two teams, and I consider the history of these two teams, some clear, predictable patterns emerge.

First, the Canucks are a better team than they were at this point last year. They’re younger and faster. And Christian Ehrhoff has made B.C. forget Matthias Ohlund. But without Willie Mitchell, they’re not as physical, and no deeper on defense.

However, it can be argued the Blackhawks, also, are a better team at this point than they were at the same time last year. Specifically, Marian Hossa, John Madden and Tomas Kopecky are upgrades over the players they replaced. Troy Brouwer and Nik Hjalmarsson, in particular, have emerged as very good players in their sophomore seasons.

Now, the argument has been made, many times, many ways, that the Blackhawks are weak in net.

Hmmm.

Well, Canuck fans, in particular, might recall the brilliant shutout Antti Niemi pitched in their building earlier this year. Or doubters might consider that last year’s Blackhawk starter, Nikolai Khabibulin, started 42 games, had a 2.33 GAA, .919 save% and 3 shutouts. Niemi has started 35 games this year, has a 2.25 GAA, .912 save% and 7 shutouts. That’s a shutout every five starts. So either he’s very good, or the defense is. Or both. Either way, it’s about keeping pucks out of the net.

Niemi was not great against Nashville, but he wasn’t bad either. And he has shown in big road games in places like Vancouver and Pittsburgh this year, he can steal big games on the road. If you want to simply say Luongo is better than Niemi, again, check the stats. Niemi basically outplayed him in the regular season (albeit playing half as many games— but notching 7 shutouts to Luongo’s 4), and is thus far in the playoffs.

A couple of other statistics really stand out in this series.

Yes, the Canucks led the Western Conference in Goals For this season (by 6 goals over the Blackhawks). They were, however, eighth in the conference (12th in the league) in Goals Allowed. The Hawks were second in the conference, sixth in the league in that stat.

This suggests while both teams bring similar offensive firepower to the table, one brings marginally more defensive ability. ADVANTAGE: Chicago.

The Canucks possess one clear advantage over the Hawks. Their power play was ranked 6th in the league at 20.9%, the Hawks was ranked 16th at 17.7% (this is somewhat mitigated however by being without Brian Campbell for six weeks).

But here’s where that advantage goes out the window.

Remember, the Canucks power play does not play the Blackhawks power play. It plays the Blackhawks penalty kill. And the Blackhawks’ penalty kill was ranked 4th in the league at 85.3% with a league-leading 13 short-handed goals.

Conversely, the Canucks penalty kill was ranked 17th in the league at 81.9.

Put another way, the Canucks scored on 21% of their power plays while the Blackhawks killed all but 15% of their penalties. So it’s statistically safe to estimate the Canucks will convert 18% of their power plays against the Blackhawks. The Hawks converted 18% of their PPs. The Canucks killed all but 18% of their penalties. ADVANTAGE: Draw.

But what tips the scales in the special teams argument is how many penalties per game a team takes (bad news ‘Nucks fans).

The Canucks averaged 4.2 minutes more PIM per game in the regular season and are averaging 3 PIM more per game in the playoffs than the Hawks. That’s 1-2 penalties a game. ADVANTAGE: Chicago

When I saw the above stat, I was not surprised. More on that in a second.

My “hunch” pick was Blackhawks in 6 or 7.

And my hunch came about for two reasons.

First, because I believe the Hawks’ balanced scoring on all four lines will give them an advantage versus a Vancouver defense that is really not great past the 2nd pairing, and is one injury away from being in the same kind of trouble it was in the second round last year.

Conversely, the Nucks’ scoring seems very concentrated on their top two lines and the Hawks have shown they can stop those lines and those players most nights.

Second, while I greatly respect Alain Vigneault as a tactician, I think he has an undisciplined hockey team. Which, more than anything else, is his team’s Achilles heel.

And this speaks to the psychology of the two teams. The two teams don’t like eachother. But it does seem, and the stats and events support this, that certain Vancouver players take selfish penalties, especially versus the Hawks, for personal reasons: specifically Kesler and Bieksa. Maybe even Burrows and Luongo, for that matter.

And I don’t see evidence that’s changed. In fact, I still hear a lot of smack and trash-talk surrounding personal rivalries.

The Blackhawks, for their part, can be immature. But it seems to me, on the ice, their immaturity plays out in too much one-on-one play and cutesie drop passes at bad times. And if they do that against the Canucks, they will pay.

But they simply don’t take as many dumb penalties as the Canucks do. And in an emotionally-charged 7-game series, that could play out in the Blackhawks favor.

So here it is: Hawks in 7.

Fire away. But please be respectful of one another.


JJ

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