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I remember talking about season expectations. The hope was an improvement in scoring (Yzerman focused on that in any summer interviews) and a positive differential. At the time, I didn’t see Detroit making the playoffs. After last night’s performance, there was a solid hour of just staring into the void and trying to come to terms with disappointment about an expected outcome.

Right now Detroit sits at a +3 differential. That’s down from around 21 before “the slide”. To see them in green at the end is a step forward. We’ve seen much better stretches of goal scoring but team defense, the defensive core and goaltending have popped up multiple times in the year. It wasn’t long ago that Lyon looked to have stepped up after Husso had fallen off (similar to Husso taking over for Ned). The team was implementing a bit of man on man coverage and the defense was making good plays to get the puck out. Those were good times.

So, unfortunately the streaks and points changed the mindset of the make of this team had. Talks in the chat about going for Hanifin and doing some major “hockey upgrade” picked up and I got some nudges for saying that shooting percentages were “unsustainable”. Now, after Larkin is on the shelf all the issues that were on the table at the beginning of the year are back with an interesting twist. Leadership in the room and coaching are getting a lot more scrutiny.

In Tampa, Yzerman had Stamkos waiting for him and made some exciting draft choices. That team played in three straight SCF winning in 20 and 21 and losing to Colorado in 22. Last year Florida lost to Vegas. Yzerman departed for Tampa in the 09/10 season, had Guy Boucher as his guy and then brought in the Michigan lawyer. There were definitely tweaks along the way.

So as the question comes up now regarding “who is getting fired?” (Not always necessarily in the comments) I honestly don’t know. Did Yzerman achieve the step forward he was looking for? The talk of playoffs came from inside the room with Larkin pushing hard. Yzerman wasn’t committed to that being on the docket. When asked “how much time” Yzerman had, I think he’s in good standing. The amount of purging the GM has done, combined with the 19/20 season shut down, that summer’s draft being a bit bizarre, a season without fans and a reminder last night that Raymond is 21 makes me think Yzerman is safe. If he puts the summer checklist on the table, it may well be in good order.

Now there’s back and forth of “tank for the best pick possible” and “don’t give up, they’re still in the mix”. I’m not a fan of tanking. It creates a nasty atmosphere and the lottery is no friend of Detroit. The players should try to figure this out and put up a solid effort. It’s on those of us (myself included) who adapted expectations during times of excitement about this team that were the pinnacle of Yzerman’s tenure since his return to the organization in 2019.

Next year? That may be a different story. Players remain unsigned and deals didn’t go through for what I believe to be a solid reason. The salary cap. We really don’t know what it will be. A brief review, Bally paid 20% less this year and has lost markets. Even if Amazon successfully steps in, that means that the LSM is now streaming. ESPN reiterated moving all content to streaming in February.

Ad revenue for streaming is lower than broadcast but broadcast continues to lose customers. Advertisers asked for rollbacks after last year due to lower than expected numbers. Money is a big questions mark. There may be a few like Bertuzzi who turn down an offer and find the open market to be even lower with no term attached. We don’t know and won’t know until the cap is proposed and ratified by the NHLPA (who are being gently coaxed to consider a rise in escrow that “won’t affect them”).

This could be a summer where good players are on the market because of bad cap management in numbers that we’ve not seen before. Last year Yzerman turned over nearly half the team. This year could see a healthy exodus as well. Internal promotion and potentially a surprise free agent.

Let me know your thoughts. Stepping back, has this still been a year of improvement, or do you feel a hard change is in order. Coaching? Roster? Office? You all make this blog happen, and without you I couldn’t do this. Thanks to everyone who stops by!

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