General Manager Doug Armstrong has had a tough off-season, filled with difficult choices, one that may likely determine and define his time in St. Louis. Unfortunately for him, even if he has made all of the correct choices given the circumstances, the team still may regress. It certainly is hard to see how the team, as it stands now, is better than last year's Western Conference Final version.
If you don't believe me, look no further than between the pipes. According to Spencer Mann's compilations of goalies (
data), the departed Brian Elliott was above the 40th percentile in high danger save percentage, almost 70th percentile in overall save percentage, and around 50th percentile in War on Ice's adjusted save percentage. Carter Hutton's percentiles are drastically lower with him being less than 20th, barely over 20th and less than 20th, respectively. What you may find curious is that the $125k cheaper Anders Nilsson had substantially better rankings as he was more than 20th, approximately 40th, and more than 60th as seen here:
Investigating the goalie situation a bit further, I decided to look at Corsica hockey's (
data) rolling 2-game average save percentages for the four goalies:
Photobucket photo removed but see Allen's here -
Note how Brian Elliott has the most consistent chart of the goalies, something that is undervalued in his game. The others are much more of a roller coaster, especially Jake Allen's line. Does this add credence to the idea that Allen is streaky? Does a streaky number one goalie inherently create more work for his backup? Is Hutton ready for this type of work load? Would Blues fans have been more comfortable with Nilsson?
Was the Buffalo Sabres 5th round pick so valuable that the team would accept a lower performing goalie who has a higher cap hit? Does the goalie movement suggest that goalie coach Jim Corsi really sees potential in Carter Hutton? Was there an issue with how Nilsson felt he was treated or handled? I have no idea but the move strikes me as very curious and disappointing as I would have like to have kept the cheaper Nilsson and seen how he could develop. Unfortunately, this isn't the only goalie move I find myself questioning strongly.
Did Jake Allen and his inconsistent play merit a new 4 year $4.35 million AAV contract? I think Blues fans are right to feel a bit unsettled about the Blues goaltending situation. Brian Elliott provided an amazing 1a/1b punch with Jake Allen which will not exist this season. If not for his big contract extension, this easily could have been a make or break season for Allen. The Blues will almost be forced to rely on him for at least 2 or 3 seasons now which suggests to me that they see Ville Husso as the next real challenger for the number one goalie position. Of course, Jordan Binnington and Phoenix Copley may surprise us but remember those two are only a year or two younger than Allen.
For now it seems to be Allen's net. Unfortunately, the playoff trends I identified back in May 2014 (
here) still seem to be holding true. His 2015 NHL playoffs were worse than his regular season both in saver percentage and in quality save percentage. The 2016 playoffs saw an even bigger regression in the postseason as can be seen
here. The trend continues much to the chagrin and concern of some Blues fans.
I hope I am wrong and overreacting but I am very concerned by the Blues goaltending situation this coming season. I guess the good news is that the Blues currently have at least $4 million in cap space with only one forward spot open given that they will not carry 8 defensemen.
St Louis Blues Blogger • 
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