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Tonight the Blues will start the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Chicago Blackhawks, looking to avenge their 2014 first round loss. In 2014, the Blues took an early two games to none lead before dropping four straight, ending the brief and lackluster Ryan Miller era. If you throw out the empty net goal, the first five games were 1 goal games with four of the five going into overtime. Let’s take a minute to look at how the teams have morphed since then.

Forwards
The Blues started the 2014 series with the following lines:
TJ Oshie–David Backes–Alexandar Steen is a playoff push with swapping Oshie for Patrick Berglund.
Jaden Schwartz–Vladimir Sobotka–Tarasenko - Line improves greatly with Lehtera over Sobotka.
Maxim Lapiere–Adam Cracknell–Chris Porter improves to Robby Fabbri–Paul Stastny–Troy Brouwer.
Steve Ott – Derek Roy – Ryan Reaves improves by adding Kyle Brodziak and Scottie Upshall for Roy.
Overall, the Blues forwards are significantly upgraded.

For the Blackhawks, out are Kris Versteeg, Brandon Saad, Patrick Sharp, Michael Hadzus, Brian Bickell, Ben Smith and Brandon Bollig. The replacements include Artem Anisimov, Thomas Fleischmann, Andrew Ladd, Artemi Panarin, Andrew Desjardins, Bradon Mashinster, Teuvo Teravainen, Dale Weise and Richard Panik. Assuming Andrew Shaw and Marian Hossa are healthy, the 2016 forward group is an upgrade though not as much as the Blues upgrade. Upgrade Edge - Blues

Defensemen
The Blues utilized Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk, Barret Jackman, Jordan Leopold and Roman Polak in 2014. Carl Gunnarsson and rookies Colton Parayko and Joel Edmundson replace Barret Jackman, Jordan Leopold and Roman Polak. Assuming the rookies perform as they have all season, the Blues blue line is substantially better and deeper this year.

The Blackhawks dressed a very deep defensive corps with Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Johnny Oduya, Nick Leddy and Michal Rozsival. Oduya and Leddy are now gone and Rozsival is older and coming off a significant injury. Their minutes will be absorbed by a combination of Christian Erhoff, Erik Gustafsson, Trevor Van Riemsdyk, Viktor Svedberg or David Rundblad. Any way you slice this, it seems like an obvious downgrade. Upgrade Edge – Blues

Goaltending
In 2014, the Blues failed with the Ryan Miller experiment with Brian Elliott serving as the backup. This year Brian Elliott led the league in save percentage and finished second in goals against average, 0.01 off the best. Jake Allen finished 13th in save percentage and 18th in goals against average. Both goalies’ performance this season suggests an upgrade.

Corey Crawford will again be the starting goalie for the Blackhawks. Crawford was having a Vezina type season in 2016 before suffering a late season injury. Crawford is better in most if not all categories this season. Scott Darling proved his playoff mettle last year, more than Anti Raanta (the 2014 backup) could claim. Blackhawks goaltending has definitely upgraded this season, assuming Crawford is healthy. Upgrade edge – assuming Crawford is healthy, even to slight edge to Chicago.

Overall
Given that the 2014 series was so tight, a slight shifting in an edge in any category could have turned the entire series. Based on the upgrades made since 2014, the Blues would seem to have an edge in this series. I hope you all enjoyed a more non-traditional look at this series. I didn’t want to re-do what has been done all over the net.

Blues lines
The Blues lines are expected to be the following:
Schwartz –Lehtera – Tarasenko
Fabbri - Stastny -Brouwer
Berglund – Steen – Backes
Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves
Edmundson/Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo
Edmundson/Bouwmeester - Shattenkirk
Gunnarsson - Parayko
Elliott

I happen to agree with Gerk in that I think Ott will replace Reaves on the road in game 3, giving Ott another 4 days or so off to work on his conditioning. If Ott isn’t ready, I think you will see Paajarvi slot into the fourth line.

Jammer's 5 Blues Keys to Winning the Series
1. Expose and take advantage of the Hawks bottom D pairings. The Blues should have a decided advantage in the lower D pairings. They need to use their home ice advantage to get those matchups and turns those into goals.

2. Timely goaltending. The Blues don't necessarily need perfect goaltending but it has to be timely. This team appears to be more resilient than years past but the goaltending cannot give up weak goals at inopportune times as has been the case whether that be Ryan Miller, Brian Elliott, or Jake Allen. This especially can't happen early in the series which might allow a here we go again type attitude to form.

3. Coaching adjustments. Ken Hitchcock has talked in the past about "imposing his will". While I appreciate wanting to play your style and your way and forcing the other team to defend you, you also cannot using the same strategy when it isn't working. In the NHL you have to adjust. For me, Hitchcock has to adjust.

I think he should have a shorter leash with his goalies. He can't be afraid to swap them out if the team or the netminder is not performing. Hopefully he learned from Coach Q last year and his management of the Hawks' goalies in their series with Nashville. Hopefully this won't even be an issue but he can't be afraid to manage this aggressively in my opinion.

I also think he has to do a better time adjusting as the series progresses. This could include lineup changes, ice time management, in game matchups, zone exit strategies, power play strategies, etc. I would suggest this is an area where he has struggled as evidenced by twice winning games 1 and 2 of series only to lose the next 4.

4. Injuries. It's hard to know how health a team is this time of year. Sure everyone will be playing but are they all playing to their normal capability or do they have a hampering injury. The Blues need their best players to perform regardless of how nicked up they are or are not.

5. Rookies. The Blues will need continued strong play from rookies Colton Parayko, Robby Fabbri, and Joel Edmundson. They also will need some patience from Hitchcock through in game mistakes. Hitchcock has been more patient with them this year than say how Ian Cole was managed but part of that might be lack of options due to the plethora of injuries the team had. The Blues will need solid minutes from their rookies and scoring contribution from Fabbri.

It’s a great day for hockey.

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