Part of the offseason and preseason buildup is about evaluating your own team. However, there is also a big obstacle that teams have to overcome regardless of their offseason improvements. That's your opponents. We can easily forget over the course of the long offseason that it is not just about the improvements and changes of your own team, but the improvements and changes of your entire division. Ya know, those six to seven teams that you will play 30-35 times or so out of the 82 regular games this year.
They make a big difference.
We have seen weak divisions produce top seeds that lose out. We have seen strong divisions produce 5-8 seeds that have gone very deep. I mean shoot, the Metro and the Central divisions are wildly competitive and difficult divisions to compete in compared to the new Pacific.
So what can we expect from the former juggernaut division? They did produce a Stanley Cup finalist yet again last year, but are we looking at a step back or a step forward from the division as a whole. What about the individual teams? How do the Kings look in this group? Is it still positive? Or is the pack starting to catch up with the California trio that have dominated in recent history. I asked on twitter recently what people thought the division would finish like if you had to guess. Not surprisingly it was not all that dissimilar to this past season. To be fair, that is likely the case yet again, but the different teams of the Pacific are exhibiting different trends right now that could shape the future of the division quite soon.
Let's take a brief look at each team and gauge what direction the are moving in at the moment and how they fit into what is becoming an increasingly wide open Pacific.
Edmonton Oilers
It seems like each and every year we say the same exact thing, "This is the year the Oilers do it." That "IT" is become a relevant and competitive team. However, each and every year they sadly sink into the same old habits, the same criticisms, and sadly earn the same results. It was another year last year where the Oilers could not get out of their own way, and finished with a Top 5 pick. At this point the embarrassment of NHL talent and top level prospects is overwhelming, but it begs the question: Are all of these top end picks really doing Edmonton any good? Instead of being able to build with players they actually need, the Oilers continually draft high in the best player available spots, where style and fit go right out the window.
Be that as it may, it is starting to feel like a true tipping point with the Oilers. There is no way, no way at all, that with a healthy Connor McDavid, a one-two-three center punch of McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, and Draisaitl, and a better back end that includes Sekera, Larsson, and a developing Nurse and Klefbom, that the Edmonton Oilers are bottom five in the league again.
After years of awful numbers, there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel.
There is still a lot left to be desired defensively, as the team finished dead last in 5v5 goals against per 60 at a 2.56, but that is a MASSIVE step in the right direction from 2014-15's 2.91, and 2013-14's 2.78.
Cam Talbot is still a massive question mark, and his .921 5v5 save percentage ranked 27th out of 36 eligible goalies playing at least 1500 minutes at 5v5 last year.
You say it each and every year with the Oilers, but this year REALLY does feel like the year they come close to at least being a playoff team right? While the Hall trade got them the right kind of player, the price was steep, and many have not forgiven them for it. However, as a whole they look like a much more complete team, and should be in the conversation later on in the season this time around.
Trend: Up
Calgary Flames
The Flames have a ton of really nice pieces. Giordano and Brodie are studs. Freddie Hamilton is also a great defender. Monahan, Gaudreau, and Backlund are all solid. And they have a youthful influx taking on a larger role possibly with players like Shinkaruk, Bennett, Ferlund, Hathaway and Jokipakka. The addition of Brian Elliot is also going to make them much better, as having a legitimate goaltender in net every night is much better than the tandem they ran last year.
When you look at the numbers though, the Flames do not really seem that far off or close at the same time. Elliott may legitimately be the cog that pushes them into a better place but they had an expected goals for and against rank of 19th. With a a maintained health of their roster, a key goaltending addition, and some youth charging into the lineup, perhaps the Flames are expecting a boost in both.
Overall though the Flames did not have the loudest of offseasons, and they still look like they have a roster that will deliver middle of the pack results. That's about what they were last year, and that might be what they are against this year. They might take a step forward a bit, but does this feel like a team that is going to challenge the division? Or more like an also ran for the wild card spot? They won't be as challenged as they were last year, but they don't look to be that much better. Maybe a more middle of the round finish is expected than the sub-80 points season they had last year.
Trend: Slightly up
Vancouver Canucks
They still have the Sedins and they spent a bunch of money and term on Loui Eriksson. Why? Well that's a good question.
The time has come for Vancouver to re-tool, and so far it does not yet look like they are fully embracing it. The team has held on to some strange assets like Burrows, Edler, Hansen, and Hamhuis, and have dealt away picks and prospects in order to bring in Gudbranson, Granlund, Sutter, and Brandon Prust. Why these things have happened is as good a question as any. In fact, the Canucks only had two selections in the first four rounds of the draft this year, and only have five selections in next year's 2017 draft. The young players in Vancouver, what with Horvat, Pedan, Hutton, Tryamkin, Virtanen, and Gaunce is pretty nice, but what else is there going on with the Canucks roster? They have seven of their highest paid forwards over the age of 27, and three of them over age 35. They finished near last in the NHL last year and they sport a defensive group which still figures to have Luca Sbisa featured prominently.
The Canucks aren't going to compete, and this year they need to let the youth they have get in and get their feet wet. It looks like the start of some trying times in Vancouver.
Trend: Down
Arizona Coyotes
Arizona has endured the down trend for many years. They have acquired a lot of picks, a lot of talented players, but they have taken hard knocks because of it.
Is this year going to prove any more successful than past ones? No, probably not. They have Doan, Hanzal, Vrbata, Bolland, and Goligoski to lead the veteran charge, but this team is all about the Duclairs, Domis, and Rieders of the world. They need quality exposure and minutes to that next wave, and you would expect that they are going to get it this season. There is a massive influx of talent coming out of juniors this year, which includes Brendan Perlini, Dylan Strome, Conor Garland, and Christian Dvorak. If anything, the newly relocated Tucson Roadrunners are going to be a very fun team to watch, Arizona though? Probably not so much. They were bottom half in most statistical categories and a sub-80 point season was probably extremely fair. Next season might be a little bit better, but this team is still a few years away from competing and next year should sing a similar song.
They are rebuilding the right way however. Just take a look at some of the names on this prospect list to go along with Strome, Domi, Duclair and the likes and you will know why:
Trend: Stagnant
San Jose Sharks
How can the Sharks do anything but go down honestly? They got otherworldly years from Pavelski, Thornton, and Burns. They also still have a solid base of players like Paul Martin, Tomas Hertl, Logan Couture, Joel Ward and Marc Edouard Vlasic.
The feeling at least from this blogger's perspective, is that too much went right for San Jose last year. They had career seasons from several players, but now have to endure their shortest ever offseasons with several players playing in the World Cup of Hockey. The Stanley Cup hangover is a real thing, and it effects the opposite finalist probably just as much as the eventual champ. They have six major players on their roster over the age of 30, and not a lot of real force in their complimentary players to sustain what could be inevitable fatigue to the ageless wonder that is Joe Thornton. Do we see age creeping in to a lot of these players? Maybe. Seems more likely this season than any other one.
The Sharks are still a well put together hockey team, but anyone expecting them to make another deep playoff run might want to step back for a second. They had a lot of seasons from players that probably won't be replicated.
Trend: Slightly Down
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim has their own way of doing things, and they have been the Pacific division champs numerous times doing it. They surround Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and their outstanding defensive corps with plug and play assets that change out almost every season. McGinn, Etem, Pirri, Raymond, Garbutt, Vermette, etc.
The Ducks never really have any solidified forward depth outside of the big duo and the nice compliment players in Silfverberg, Rakell and Cogliano. It always hurts them in the playoffs when depth is tested, but as far as the regular season goes they are pretty well set.
With just how young and talented their defense is, it is hard to imagine much different from Anaheim next year. They can plug and play pretty much any forward group around their limited core pieces up front, and get results behind good goaltending and good defense. They were 7th in corsi against per 60, and 8th in expected goals against per 60. They are not too dissimilar to San Jose in that they are putting a lot of their eggs in some aging baskets up front, but the difference with Anaheim is that Despres, Vatanen, Lindholm, Fowler, and Manson are all under the age of 25, and Shea Theodore is also on his way at age 21. It is a scary defensive group, with a young goaltender. Oh and Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf are still really good. They have not done enough to push for a championship again, but they have not fallen out of competitive favor either. Not in the Pacific anyhow.
Trend: Stagnant
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings flamed out of the first round last year, much to the dismay of their frustrated fans. The team looked outright dominant through the first half of the season but slowly plummeted down the stretch, going out rather quietly at the hands of their Northern rivals.
What can you expect from the Kings this year though? They seemed to take the ousting with pretty fervent displeasure, and the team professed perhaps a new direction in their thinking this season. Is this the year we see the Kings start to move away from aging players? Is it a season where the team starts to look within for help? Who knows. The reality is though the Kings will likely take a step back this year in order to perhaps better prepare for the future. They still have a plethora of young core pieces, but this roster could get very old very fast if they do not care for the future. With the style the Kings play, however, and the defensive minded players they have acquired, they should again be in the mix for a playoff spot and the Top 3 in the division. They will have to replace the production of Milan Lucic, and find some players to pick up for the lost production in players like King, Brown, and possibly Marian Gaborik. Teddy Purcell enters the fold, as do Zach Trotman, Michael Latta, and Tom Gilbert. These are complimentary moves, as the LA core remains largely productive and intact. It's the outer portions that need a little work, and the Kings will have some decisions to make and will need some players to step forward to fix that.
Trend: Down
Division Overview
It's a division that had a distinct dichotomy last year. There were rebuilding teams and playoff teams. There were nearly three teams over 100 points, and four sub-80. This year, there might be a little more middle ground to the division than last year. San Jose will likely back off their monster season for understandable reasons, while Anaheim look poised to do what they always do: Be good in the regular season. The Kings are undergoing a mini internal uncertain phase of sorts, and could slip a little off of last year's altogether good 48-win season. Arizona could take small steps forward but does not yet look like a roster ready to compete. Unless we see otherworldly goaltending and big steps from young players, Arizona will probably round out the bottom portion of the division with Vancouver. Edmonton remains the big wild card to close the gap, with Calgary following slowly behind. Would it be crazy to think Edmonton pushes hard for a playoff spot this season? With a healthy Connor McDavid it feels like Edmonton could do quite a bit of damage this year. Maybe it is crazy to think they make a playoff run, but they could very well close the gap in a huge way between the Pacific top and the bottom. It should be a bit more of a wide open division this year, but predictable no less.
Enjoy this last year with seven teams, because next season begins a new era of an eight team Pacific division with the Las Vegas Desert Black Sandy Flying Something Knights entering the mix.
How do you see the teams finishing this year?
Have your say in the comments section.
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