As a writer/blogger/reporter on the Los Angeles Kings, it is always worthwhile to keep an eye on players that have moved on from the organization.
Unless you have been living under a rock lately, there is one ex-King whose exceptional struggles are making headlines right now. We are, of course, talking about former first-round draft pick and Kings product Jonathan Bernier.
Once considered one of the most promising tenders in the world, with top 10 caliber potential, Bernier has seen his career take a downturn in the spotlight of Maple Leaf land. Acquired by the Leafs in the offseason of 2013 after winning a cup with the Kings, the Laval, Quebec native has become nothing short of an enigma between the pipes in Toronto.
Meanwhile, the ever-patient James Reimer has slowly steadied himself after years of being part of a rotation of goaltenders. He now looks poised to take over as the No. 1 in Toronto from Bernier. Reimer, was drafted in the 2006 Fourth round (99th overall) by the Maple Leafs, and has always been part of a split starter or backup role. Meanwhile, Bernier, a goalie selected 11th overall in the very same draft as James Reimer, looks on the verge of being waived or put on third string duties. Bernier's problems were compounded the other night. In lieu of a James Reimer injury, Babcock opted with 22-year old, former seventh-round pick in 2011, Garrett Sparks in goal. Babcock and the Leafs were rewarded with a shutout by the young netminder as Bernier watched from the bench.
A seventh-round pick, and a third-round pick and forever backup outplaying what used to be the next coming of Jesus Christ in goalie pads.
While you would like to believe that this is some sort of flukey phenomenon, it is just another episode of
"Goalies are freaking weird and we shouldn't trust anything about them." in the NHL. Or the AHL. Or development leagues, I guess.
While Jonathan Bernier has not really been put in a place to succeed with a re-tooling Maple Leafs squad, he has done himself few favors.
Nevertheless, how do you look back on the trade to acquire Bernier and critique the position of the Maple Leafs? All signs (few that there were) pointed to Bernier being a potentially solid starter in the NHL. They needed goaltending, they went out and got what they thought was quality goaltending, and it is potentially turning out to be a massive flop that is going to be overtaken by lesser invested pieces. It really can be difficult to criticize a GM in this position. No crystal ball could have told you the outcome.
With all this in mind, the exact counter argument comes to mind as a Kings centric reporter.
Martin Jones.
Yes, undrafted, free agent signed Martin Jones. The man who is currently thriving in a starter's role with the upstate rival San Jose Sharks.
The 25-year old North Vancouver native is amongst the NHL leaders in save percentage and goals against for eligible starters. Where was the hype on Jones? How did someone that is seemingly this good (for now), slip through the cracks of an extensive and experienced NHL Scouting network? Jones killed it with the Calgary Hitmen in his junior career, but was never even given a sniff in the later rounds of the NHL entry draft.
What about Mike Condon? Another undrafted collegiate goaltender, who has replaced an injured Carey Price and backstopped the Canadiens to a wonderfully successful start to the year.
Andrew Hammond, one of the AHL's WORST goaltenders last season with a sparkling .898 save percentage with the Binghamton Baby Sens, comes up and does otherworldly things on an inspired Senators' stretch run. He too was undrafted, and is 22-1-4 in his small NHL career.
Want to get even stranger?
Henrik Lundqvist was taken in the SEVENTH round of the 2000 NHL entry draft, mainly because he was an older European crossover with a bit of an unorthodox style. Several years later with a couple of Gold Medals and a Vezina Trophy under his belt, and he is one of the best tenders in the league.
Jonathan Quick was selected in the middle rounds of 2005 and gone on to have a very successful career. You can argue over the merits of where he lies in the great spectrum of NHL goalies right now, but there is no denying for a third-round pick he was an absolute steal. A legit NHL starter from a third-round pick? Yes please, and thank you.
To counter these late round gems, there are plenty of great goaltenders like Carey Price, Tuukka Rask, and Cory Schneider who were selected with first round picks as well. It is not always bad and worse when it comes to drafting goaltenders. However, in this day and age, with so many variables impacting a goaltenders performances I ask you one question:
Why on earth would anyone use a first round pick on a goaltender?
It seems like maybe the silliest of silly moves to do so.
Don't think so? Alright, let us compile a list of goaltenders selected with first round picks since 2000 shall we?
In chronological order from most recent onward:
Ilya Samsonov (2015 WSH)
Andrei Vasilevsky (2012 TB)
Malcolm Subban (2012 BOS)
(Jury is still out on most of the above)
Jack Campbell (2010 DAL)
Mark Visentin (2010 ARI/PHX)
Chet Pickard (2008 NSH)
Thomas McCollum (2008 DET)
Jonathan Bernier (2006 LA)
Riku Hilenius (2006 TB)
Semyon Varlamov (2006 WSH)
Leland Irving (2006 CGY)
Carey Price (2005 MTL)
Tuukka Rask (2005 TOR)
Al Montoya (2004 NYR)
Devan Dubnyk (2004 EDM)
Marek Schwarz (2004 STL)
Cory Schneider (2004 VAN)
M.A. Fleury (2003 PIT) ***FIRST OVERALL***
Kari Lehtonen (2002 ATL) ***SECOND OVERALL***
Cam Ward (2002 CAR)
Hannu Toivonen (2002 BOS)
Pascal Leclaire (2001 CBJ)
Dan Blackburn (2001 NYR)
Jason Bacashihua (2001 DAL)
Adam Munro (2001 CHI)
Rick DiPietro (2000 NYI) ***FIRST OVERALL***
Brent Kahn (2000 CGY)
What a list. To make it easier on the eyes, I bolded goaltenders who you could say have had "Successful" NHL careers.
You could also argue that "Success" is a very loose term. Al Montoya has had success, but as a backup. Thus he is not bolded. Cam Ward has had success, but his career has not been overall successful. After his cup run with Carolina, he has been nothing short of replacement quality. Kari Lehtonen is also a career average goaltender with varying amounts of inconsistency. Dubnyk, likewise, has only just started coming into prominence. That is, of course, after he was dealt by two different teams and looked like he had played himself out of the NHL.
So of these 27 goaltenders taken in the first round over the last 15 years, you could call three undecided with Vasilevsky, Subban, and Samsonov. So of the 24 remaining, we have eight real "successful" goalies. We have just about four of those that will get you goaltending that is above average (Price, Rask, Schneider and pick who you like of Fleury, Lehtonen, Ward, Varlamov, Dubnyk).
If history is any indicator, if you select a goalie in the first round of an NHL draft these days, you have about a 16% chance of getting a goaltender that is above average, or of top 10 quality.
to borrow a similar line from the Liar, Liar
Why would anyone (Woman) wanna do that??
View post on imgur.com
You have to really pick and choose when it is going to happen. You can not ALWAYS pass on goalies in the first round, like the All-Star ladened 2005 draft which produced both Carey Price and Tuukka Rask. But overall, good goaltending has not come from the first round.
Over the last 10 years, here is a list of the 15 best goaltenders by all situations adjusted save percentage in the NHL regular season.
View post on imgur.com
Want to know how many of those were first-round picks?
Five.
Amazingly, Halak, Vokoun, Lundqvist, Hasek, and Miller were taken in the sixth round and beyond.
Tim Thomas and Jonas Hiller were undrafted.
Holtby, Bishop, and Crawford were taken in the middle to earlier rounds.
That's two thirds of the top 15 goalies in the past 10 years comprised of undrafted free agents and later round picks.
It gets even scarier when you start looking at the next layer of the list, where players like Craig Anderson, Jonathan Quick, Sergei Bobrovsky, Pekka Rinne, and Antti Niemi start populating the NHL average to above average historical goaltenders.
Goaltenders are like pitchers in many respects. Success does not always equal quality, and vice versa. Seems like a strange statement, but that is pretty much why goalies are a rare breed, like pitchers. A lot of these higher end goalie selections, ala Jack Campbell and the currently stagnating John Gibson, were outstanding at one point or another in their development path. Gibson was a master in juniors, Campbell was outstanding with the USNTDP on the world stage. Nevertheless, the changes in environment, team, structure, etc. etc. have left them hanging in the balance of NHL replacement goaltending. Meanwhile, goalies like Mike Condon, Andrew Hammond, and Pekka Rinne come from out of nowhere to play unorthodox styles that can sometimes lead to success. As an avid fan of the Baltimore Orioles, it is hard not to think about relief pitcher Darren O'Day in this regard. He was never really anything special outside of a decent middle reliever/set-up option in the minor leagues (with a few years of closing), however in recent years since joining Baltimore, he has become one of the most dominant set-up men in baseball. This is large in part due to his unorthodox pitching style.
You can compare these guys to the goalies like Hasek and Lundqvist, whose awkward styles have somehow fit in with the right team at the right time and led to success.
In today's NHL, personally, I would not completely understand any general manager using a first round, heck maybe even a second round pick, on a goaltender. You can find your Rinnes, Quicks, and Lundvists in the later rounds. You can find your Martin Jones's and Jonas Hiller's on the free agent market. Or you can swipe them out of the undrafted NCAA ranks ala Mike Condon. That is not to say that NHL GMs are completely at fault for taking risks on "Can't Miss" goaltending prospects. The problem is we really do not know yet what translates to "Can't Miss" in the development stage to "Can't Miss" at the NHL stage in regards to these caged combatants.
With adjusted save percentages and improved comparative tools we are starting to get a better understanding on goaltenders and how they actually perform.
Nevertheless, they still remain one of the most difficult and enigmatic positions to scout, draft, and evaluate.
Jonathan Bernier and Martin Jones are two goaltenders from the same goalie pipeline, from starkly different development backgrounds, and trending in opposite directions. You would have never been able to predict that, just as you would never have been able to predict the meteoric rise of Andrew Hammond, or the outright success of a lanky and awkward goaltender from Kempele, Finland in 2004. Just another example of the goalie weirdness that makes this game of hockey so intriguing.
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