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Some Very Easy Reasons Not to Freak Out

October 12, 2015, 12:02 PM ET [93 Comments]
Jason Lewis
Los Angeles Kings Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT



1.

It is two games.


*End Article*

Okay, okay, maybe not. However, it has become apparent by the reaction of most of the twitterverse and Kings fans everywhere, the team has had a disappointing first two games. They have been beat twice on home ice, once by a last place coined team in Arizona. They have been outscored 9-2, have gone 0-for-10 on the powerplay, and given up 11 powerplays (5.5 per game) to their opponent.

It has, by all accounts, been pretty darn ugly.

But there are some very overly simple reasons to not freak out. A few years back, before the Kings won their Stanley Cups, no one would be batting an eye at two bad losses to start the year. The heavy expectations laid upon the Kings after a disappointing 2014-15 have been apparent by the reaction of the fan base after a few bad losses. I am here to tell you that, sadly, the Kings are not going to go 82-0. I am also going to tell you that good teams lose bad games. Shocking, I know.

We are on the blog love numbers, and there are some very practical, numbers based reasons, to just brush off these two losses and look forward to a larger and more conclusive sample size of what this team really is. So far it has been pretty extreme on the bad side.

1. It REALLY is just two games

Small sample size. Plain and simple. Anyone who is ready to make a conclusion about the following is really jumping the gun: the Kings, the Kings defense, Milan Lucic, Jordan Weal, the 4th line, the future of Darryl Sutter, the future of Darryl Sutter's system, what kind of year Jonathan Quick is going to have, if Martin Jones would be better, Anze Kopitar and his contract, Dustin Brown, Dustin Brown's future, and if we should have kept Colin Miller.

It is way too soon to talk about any of that with any severity. Milan Lucic has played roughly 35 minutes as an LA Kings. It is way too soon to take a shot and knowing what kind of year he will have. Yes, Sutter moved him off the top line, but the Kings bench boss is notorious for mixing up his wingers alongside the established duos of Gaborik/Kopitar and Carter/Toffoli. This does not mean that Lucic will not continue to make appearances on the top line, and this also does not mean that Dustin Brown will reemerge as the No. 1 option on the top line left/right wing spot.

Simply put, it is way too soon to make conclusions about anything. I had people on twitter going crazy about how bad the Kings defense is and how wholesale changes needed to be made AFTER ONE GAME! One game. Take a deep breath everyone! It is an 82-game season, and the Kings are going to lose somewhere in the range of 25-30 games. Should one have come against Arizona? Nah probably not, but it is too soon to think about that being a game that matters.

2. Some of the key numbers we do have are *Drum roll* unsustainably bad!

Small sample sizes are used to ward off conclusions that can be made in haste. However, we can also use small sample size numbers to show just how much of a deviation there is from the standard.

The Kings currently hold the worst PDO in hockey. A refresher on PDO, it is the on ice shooting percentage plus the team save percentage. A PDO of around 100 is usually considered normal. The Kings currently have a whopping even strength 84.1 PDO. Worst in the NHL. Their even strength on ice save percentage is an 81.6%, which is second worst. That leaves them with a solid 2.5 even strength shooting percentage. That is 5th worst in hockey.

How much does that deviate?

Last year's on ice save percentage was 92.6, the PDO was 100.6, and the shooting percentage 7.6.

There is no way on this green earth that the Kings will continue to shoot at 2.5% for the entirety of the season. There is no way that Jonathan Quick will continue to save only 8 out of 10 shots.


3. Those gosh darn corsi numbers and stuff are still good!

Hey look at that, the Kings are doing alright in possessing the puck. The are 12th in corsi for per 60 and sixth in corsi against per 60 at even strength. That's good.


Hey look at that, the Kings are doing alright in scoring chance differential. They are 10th in overall differential with a +10! They are 4th overall in scoring chances against at 20.8 per 60.

Shots for %, High Danger chances, faceoffs, etc. etc. The Kings are looking altogether fine in these numbers.


These are all even strength numbers to boot. Even against the Sharks, The Kings were an alright team at even strength, which is how most of the game is played.

They outplayed Arizona for the majority of the game, but did not get a few big games and ran into a very hot Mike Smith. Against San Jose they have up too many powerplays, too many powerplay goals, and that ended up being the difference between a 5-1 game and maybe a 2 or 3-1 game. Or maybe 2-2, or 3-2. When you eliminate almost 20 minutes of penalty time granted to the opponent it can work wonders on your line rotations and offensive game.


Short and simple, the good numbers are good, the bad numbers are extremely bad. Eyebrow raising bad. SO bad you look at them and have to laugh at just how badly people were going crazy the first two games. Cooler heads prevail. The Kings have had a long break here from Saturday to Tuesday, and hopefully everyone has had a chance to relax and realize that we are seriously in season infancy.

This is almost a "I can't believe we are already talking about this" sort of article, BUT the high amount of expectation surrounding the Kings, the expectation to bounceback, is clearly evident. The first two games were far too similar to games like last season, which I am sure gave fans a Vietnam-esque flashback that had them curl up in the shower fully clothed and shaking for a half hour. I understand.

Read this and relaaaaax. We are two games in. It is a long season. There will be plenty of other things to be mad about later. The Kings defense is fine, Lucic is fine, the team is fine, it is way too soon to even consider talking about a trade of any implication to the roster. Let's revisit this in ten or twelve games or so and really unleash the proper demons if necessary.




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