Since it is nearly August and we are about two months away from any reasonable hockey news and/or developments, all we can do at this point is theorize about the roster.
Easily the most questionable part of the Kings roster right now is the 6-7 defenseman spots. (Also the third line seems to be in question by most people). It really is not questionable in part due to quality, but more so personnel. Who the heck is going to get that 6-7 spot come opening night?
There, at this point, look to be three options: Jeff Schultz, Derek Forbort, and Jamie McBain.
All three play very different games, which is nice. The Kings will certainly have a variety to choose from within these three. Which suits the Kings best though? Who has the upper hand or the inside track?
First let us look at the youngest of the trio, Derek Forbort. The 23-year old from Duluth, Minnesota has taken a long time to get to this point and he still has a lot of work to do. The Kings have been patient to a pretty hefty degree with the former first rounder. He was taken in the 2010 NHL Entry draft at No. 15 overall, sandwiched between two St. Louis Blues picks at 14 and 16. Avert your eyes, because that No. 16 pick was Vladimir Tarasenko. (Nick Bjugstad was also selected at 19 by Florida....boy would he look nice in the center depth right now...)
In fact, When Joey Hishon took the ice last year for Colorado and played 13 games, Forbort became the ONLY player from the 2010 NHL entry draft to not yet play an NHL game. That is right, even goaltenders like Mark Visentin and Jack Campbell have got in a game. Now you could easily make the argument that defense is a slow development curve filled with very unique circumstances and things the players have to learn. Also, the Kings have and have had a stacked blueline for about four years now, so spots were few and far between. Forbort is also a left shot, and more defensive leaning. Those are two things the Kings have had plenty of. It must have been frustrating for Forbort to watch the Kings trade for left shooting defenseman Brayden McNabb, and then watch him become a regular in the Kings lineup. That being said, Forbort has an opportunity that is ripe for the taking in 2015-16. The 6'4" defenseman has played a steady sort of game, much like that of Willie Mitchell. He is a big two-way defenseman who is a touch more defensive leaning than offensive leaning.
Forbort has some things working against him though. He still has one year left on his ELC and can be sent down to the minors without having to clear waivers. Maybe this is a good thing. Right now the Kings have a pretty well established set of left handers in Martinez, Muzzin, and McNabb. Sutter and the Kings love their right-left balance. Is it enough to keep Forbort out of the lineup if he has a killer camp? Doubtful, but with the ability to send him down to the minors to start the year? Maybe.
The two guys with the better opportunities are Jamie McBain and Jeff Schultz.
The 27-year old McBain was a noticeable addition on the roster last year for one reason: Offense. Outside of the Muzzin-Doughty pairing last year, the Kings offense from the blue line was absolutely terrible. The Kings actually had one of the worst groups of offensive producers from the blue line last season. McBain is a righty (Oooh), an offensive producer (Niice), and a guy who could fill in on the powerplay (Very niiice ). In fact, McBain had some of the best even strength production numbers on the team amongst defenders last season.
His 0.42 goals per 60 and 1.25 points per 60 at five on five were first on the team. However, it was a small 26 game sample size. Also, before you get too excited (THE TEAM SCORES MORE WITH HIM ON THE ICE!!) there are some suspect numbers. His shooting percentage stood at an 18.18%. That number is incredibly high and is a prime candidate for regression. His normal even strength percentage sits at around 5%. Also, when you look at McBain's defensive contributions it can be a bit of a mixed bag. He allowed the third highest scoring chances per 60 against numbers on the team, behind Regehr and Alec Martinez. He was also third worst in high danger chances against behind the same two players. His Fenwick against numbers and Corsi against numbers were average and balanced out due to his offense which is good. Likewise, his shots against numbers were average and balanced out nicely due to his high shots for.
Here is the kicker though: McBain had the highest skewed offensive to defensive zone starts on the team, and it was not even close.
His ZSO (Fraction offense vs. defensive zone starts) relative to his team mates sat at a lofty 14.63. Compare that to Alec Martinez and Robyn Regehr, each of whom had the two most difficult skewed starts on the team at -5.96 and -9.57 respectively. McBain's quality of competition numbers ALSO rank as the easiest on the team and it, again, was not even close.
(They really need to update their spelling on Jamie McBain's name...)
Numbers provided by Behind the Net
McBain, by all accounts, is a good mobile and offensive defenseman. However, he is a chance trader. His defensive inefficiencies are made up for by his offensive numbers and cushy deployments. He allows a high amount of scoring chances in very easy deployments against easier opponents. Time and time again when you look at McBain's game log, games in which he did not get favorable deployments tend to be games in which his numbers were destroyed. The Kings only allowed McBain to get negative zone starts in seven games. In those seven games he broke even twice at 50% possession, was once above 50%, and was under for the remaining four.
(Note that the one positive game in which McBain had was against Calgary, a team noted for poor possession)
This style of change trading play is not familiar to the Kings, although it could work on a third pairing. You have to protect McBain in a number of ways, much like the Kings protected Brayden McNabb last season. Perhaps a pairing of McBain and McNabb works next season? He gives the Kings a nice added boost to offense from the blueline, but is also a proverbial hockey version of a glass cannon.
The steady middle man, somewhere between Forbort and McBain, is Jeff Schultz. It is hard to have much numerical evidence with Schultz considering his sample size last season was just nine games. If you want to look at those small number of games, everything was positive. The 28-year old carried his weight in difficult deployment and match up minutes, he played more minutes than McBain would give you, and his possession numbers were a healthy 58% on the season. In nine games however. Schultz is another two-way defenseman, but is also left shooting which could come into play for balance. He played parts of seven seasons with the Capitals before falling out of favor with the club around 2011-12. For whatever reason, Schultz slipped through the cracks of the NHL despite still being a fairly serviceable mid to bottom pairing defenseman. He posted a memorable +50 season in Washington back in 2009-10 (If you put ANY stock in that stat...) to go along with 20 assists and three goals. However, it has been a long time since 2009-10 and he is often cited as a coat tail rider to partner Mike Greene and the forward duo of Nick Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin. For the most part that is absolutely true. Schultz played an obscene amount of minutes anchoring the Caps top line of Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Semin in 09-10, and that was a major reason for his bloated numbers. If you ever wanted an example for why +/- is misleading, look no further than the deployment of Jeff Schultz in 2009-10.
From 09-10 he saw a precipitous decline in fenwick numbers despite most of his peripheral numbers like goals against, shots against, and scoring chances against staying the same. In fact, Schultz's scoring chances and shots against actually DECLINED from 2009-10 to 2012-13. Nevertheless he was on the wrong side of the puck most nights. In 2012-13 he posted his worst career year saddled up with the young and inexperienced John Carlson and Tomas Kundratek. The result was his fall from the NHL into the AHL.
One man's trash is another man's reclamation project. Schultz has been picked up by the Kings on a very low-risk contract, and he has rewarded the club in the minor leagues. His veteran presence and altogether good numbers helped anchor the Monarchs top pairing and earn the club a championship. He has been called up to fill in on a number of occasions, including the 2013-14 Stanley Cup run. For a low-risk third pairing in 2015-16, he does not seem like an unreasonable option whatsoever.
With those being the three major candidates, there are a number of other youngsters who could play roles in 2015-16 if they have good years in the minors. The Kings are very high on the 19-year old Finnish defenseman that they drafted in the 2014 second round, Alex Lintuniemi. They have also recently signed their 2015 second round pick, Erik Cernak, to an entry-level deal. The 18-year old will likely return to Erie of the OHL be eligible to play in the AHL, Slovakia, or the OHL. The Erie Otters drafted his rights, but he will more than likely opt for stiffer competition in either the AHL or Slovakia. (Nod to Mr. Jon Rosen on this info) The Kings are definitely going to give him a long look in camp. He played very capably with HC Kosice last year in the Slovakian league. The rags to riches story of Vincent LoVerde could yet have another chapter as well. The former Miami of Ohio Redhawk went undrafted, and had to earn his keep through the ECHL and AHL ranks. After two very steady seasons in the AHL, could he get a nod? What about Kevin Gravel? Left off the 40-man roster last season due to contract limitations, but back in the fold this year.
Tough to say who steps up and claims the opportunity that is currently open on the Kings blueline. It could be one of the expected, it could be one of the unexpected. Training camp in September will make it all a bit more clear. Until now, it is summer, it is a slow news day (one of many) so all we can do is theorize.
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