The time has come. The playoffs are upon us. And for each the San Jose Sharks and the Los Angeles Kings, it is a familiar setting, a familiar opponent, and for at least one, hopefully a familiar result.
The Kings and the Sharks will meet in a playoff series in 2015-16 for the third time in four years. For the second time it will be in the Division Semifinals, this time with the Los Angeles as the No. 2 and San Jose as the No. 3 seed.
While the likelihood of it repeating the "It was 3-0!" implosion of 2013-14 is slim, it should be a series filled with just as much drama, excitement, and hard fought hockey. These two teams match up in very different ways, and despite a few changes on the surface, they are very similar teams to previous times these teams have met up in the postseason. Without further delay, let's get to breaking this series down by category, until finally reaching a final prediction.
Offense
Overall, the offensive numbers in terms of production look fairly good for one team. That team is San Jose. The Sharks finished the regular season ranked 4th overall in the league with a 2.89 goals per game. The Kings, a team that is notoriously low scoring, were ranked at 14th overall with a 2.72. Despite the difference in ranks, these two teams are not far apart in terms of goal output.
Some of the difference is related to sheer shooting percentage, as the Kings put the second most shots per game up in the league at 32.0 per game, while the Sharks managed the 11th most at 30.4. Despite that, the Sharks still managed a five on five shooting percentage that was 7.7% to L.As meager 6.8%.
Scoring chances, however, fell in favor of LA at even strength. The Kings managed a per 60 rate of 29.1 to San Jose's 27.6. However, the Sharks were the team that managed more dangerous chances on a more frequent basis, with a per 60 rating of high danger chances that was best in the league at 13.1 per game. The Kings, while still in the top 5 in the league, managed 11.7 per 60.
To get a real feel for this breakdown though, you have to split this offense up by Top 6 and Bottom 6.
Top 6 Forwards
The San Jose Sharks are potentially slated to line up like this with their top six:
Thomas Hertl - Joe Pavelski - Joe Thornton
Joonas Donskoi - Logan Couture - Joel Ward
As far as a top line goes, that might be one of the most lethal in all of hockey. All three of Hertl, Pavelski, and Thornton are forwards that combine high skill, size, and defensive capability. The Sharks second line is a bit more of a wild card, but Joel Ward has had a marvelous year and continues to be a strong two-way contributor. His center, Couture, is a potential 1C on a number of teams in the NHL, while Joonas Donskoi remains a relatively young and unknown factor. His rookie season in the NHL however has been very good, and he has played his way into a more prominent role.
On the opposite side, the Kings are dealing with some significant injuries that will trouble their top six. Consistently it has been a combination of Carter/Toffoli/Kopitar/Lucic, with some rotation of wingers. Recently, without Marian Gaborik, it has been Dustin Brown and Tanner Pearson that have got the call, leading to a top 6 that has looked like this:
Milan Lucic - Anze Kopitar - Tanner Pearson
Dustin Brown - Jeff Carter - Tyler Toffoli
In terms of pure corsi for% though, the favor still falls pretty heavily in favor of some of the Kings players.
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Defensively, it's almost ALL LA leading the ranks of the respective top six groups.
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However, in terms of pure scoring it's the Thornton-Pavelski show with some chip in from Hertl and Donskoi.
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This is a pretty even group when you consider the sheer power that Thornton and Pavelski have. However, a trend you will see brought up a couple of times in this analysis, the Sharks have a lot of eggs in few baskets. The Kings may not score as much in mass, but they have multiple outlets that can do so. They also have players that can utterly possess the crap out of the puck and put forth a ridiculous amount of chances.
This is a matchup that probably balances out in the end. San Jose have the big guns in the top 6, while L.A. has more varied production. Also, if the Kings get Gaborik back (Slim chance) at any point during this series, it could be a deathknell for the Sharks.
Edge: Even
Bottom Six Forwards
The Kings are getting some actual production from their bottom six recently, particularly their bottom line. The addition of Vincent Lecavalier and Kris Versteeg, has given them a more balanced threat in the bottom six. They also have the hustling Trevor Lewis, and a revitalized Andy Andreoff. The off year of a usually reliable Dwight King and Kyle Clifford might remain the only current weak spots, with Andreoff being an unknown.
Dwight King - Vincent Lecavalier - Trevor Lewis
Kyle Clifford - Andy Andreoff - Kris Versteeg
With San Jose, this is where things might really start to get dicey.
Patrick Marleau is having a down year, Danius Zubrus is pretty much a warm blanket to coach Peter DeBoer, while Tommy Wingels, Melker Karlsson, and maybe Matt Nieto are relatively replacement-esque players. Nick Spaling and Chris Tierney also round out the bottom six. Getting Nieto back from a broken knuckle might be a good step in making the San Jose bottom lines a bit more pungent.
Nick Spaling/Matt Nieto - Patrick Marleau - Melker Karlsson
Danius Zubrus - Chris Tierney - Tommy Wingels
From a fancy stat standpoint, it's ugly for the Sharks forwards.
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Only Nieto is a positive possession player, and in terms of shot suppression it's ugly outside of Andreoff and King.
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Expected goals against, which factors in shooting percentages, chance generation, and shot suppression, do not look strong for the Sharks. However, Marleau, Tierney, and Nieto all have done decent in generating chances, making their presence a bit of a double edged sword.
If the Kings can continue to get better play from Andreoff it would go a long way in helping the bottom six stay less of a liability.
Essentially the Sharks bottom lines are going to bleed chances to the Kings in this series, and the question will ultimately come down to whether or not Los Angeles can punish them on those opportunities.
Edge: Los Angeles Kings
Overall, the offensive edge is going to be somewhat even. The Kings are going to have to do their best in limiting the production of the two headed dragon, while making the limited depth of the Sharks pay for poor play and chance generation. In hockey, depth matters, a lot. The Kings have that edge over the Sharks, and for that reason the hold the offensive edge. Although it is slight.
Edge overall: Los Angeles Kings
Defense
No need to break down top and bottom pairs on this one. It is pretty cut and dry. This series is going to ultimately be dominated by the top four of either team. With a healthy Marc-Edouard Vlasic, the game has changed and both defensive corps are fairly even.
Paul Martin - Brent Burns
M.E. Vlasic - Justin Braun
Brenden Dillon - Roman Polak
Brayden McNabb - Drew Doughty
Jake Muzzin - Alec Martinez
Rob Scuderi - Luke Schenn
As far as top fours are concerned, it is an even match. Both have world class talents in Burns and Doughty. Both have secondary talents that are also some of the best in the league in Jake Muzzin and Vlasic, and then they additions of Martinez and McNabb match up evenly with Braun and veteran Paul Martin.
Where the series may ultimately get interesting is with the usage of Scuderi-Schenn and Dillon Polak. While the early numbers on Scuderi and Schenn have been promising, both have been pretty big liabilities at times this year in their own end. Ask yourself this, would you feel comfortable with Thornton/Pavelski or Couture/Donskoi out against Scuderi and Schenn? Probably not. Likewise, are you feeling comfortable as a Sharks fan with Polak and Dillon out against the Carter/Toffoli pair or the Kopitar/Lucic tandem?
It does come down to usage a bit, and Sutter absolutely will ride Doughty and Muzzin to the ends of the earth if it means keeping Schenn and Scuderi out of high pressure situations. He has done it before and he will do it again. Does Jamie McBain factor in at all? Maybe, maybe not. This one is almost a pick em.
In terms of pure shot suppression and generation it's almost a wash and not worth posting any tables. Scuderi is cancelled out by Dillon, Burns and Braun are cancelled out by Doughty and McNabb, while Muzzin and Vlasic match up as well.
Edge: Even
Goaltending
This one is fairly easy.
Quick AdjSv - .928
Jones AdjSV - .925
Quick PK sv% - .871
Jones PK sv% - .878
Also factor in that the Kings generally give up fewer shots and fewer scoring chances. Stay out of the box and the Kings pretty much have this category wrapped up thanks to team defense. Also, when you consider what a non-factor goaltending was the last time these two played in the playoffs, it is hard to give a real clear edge to anyone.
Edge: Los Angeles Kings
Special Teams:
San Jose's powerplay was potent this year, scoring at a 22.5% click for third best in the league. The Kings, meanwhile, sat in 8th with a 20% powerplay conversion rate.
Penalty killing was average for both teams, with the Kings sitting in 15th with a an 81.4% PK, and the Sharks in 21st with an 80.5%. The only hitch? The Kings were a massive penalized team, going short handed the third most of any NHL team with 285 opportunities granted. San Jose was on the opposite end at 24th in the league.
This could be a bit of an achilles heel if the Kings struggle in the series. If they start a penalty box parade it could end badly.
Edge: San Jose Sharks
Coaching
Sutter and DeBoer are familiar with each other in the playoff sense, having squared off in the 2011-12 finals.
In terms of styles, it is pretty simple what Sutter is about. He rolls four lines until late in the game when he rolls three lines and two pairs. He does not line match, he does not read and react. It is four lines and keep it going.
DeBoer is a bit of a wild card, as he will do both line matching and line rolling. In the series against the Kings in 2011-12, DeBoer attempted to line match in the first several games to no avail, but settled into a line rotation later in the series that started giving the Kings issues (Particularly dealing with the Ryan Carter-Stephen Gionta duo). How he handles the Kings-Sharks series remains to be seen. However, if the March 28th Kings-Sharks game that the Sharks won 5-2 is any indication, he could go with a heavy line rolling strategy. No Shark player in that game played under 10 minutes aside from Michael Haley. No defenseman played less than 15 minutes or more than 24. It was classic line rolling deployment. This could lead to some interesting match ups in game.
However, Sutter's in game management still tends to be pretty strong, and if something is not working his reactions are generally timely and spot on. Line juggles, line rotations, and bench shortening is often with good reason. If there is an edge here, it is not by much, but you have to give the edge to the guy who has proven himself before.
Edge: Los Angeles Kings
Overall
This series is going to be tightly contested, fun, potentially high scoring, and a game of chess.
How the Kings deal with Thornton and Pavelski is key. Also how Los Angeles's bottom lines capitalize on the Sharks bottom lines is key. Will Sutter continue to roll lines or try to exploit weaknesses? Will DeBoer attack the Kings bottom pair? Will goaltending even be a factor, ala the 2013-14 goal fest? Do the Sharks have a mental hangover from the last playoff encounter? Will they grip their sticks if they get leads or gain an advantage in the series?
There are a lot of factors in this one both on and off the ice, but in terms of pure, structured, 200-foot hockey, the Kings have an advantage in depth. The top players for each team match up, but the Kings have just a few extra weapons that might cause issues deeper into the lineup.
I don't think it is quite a seven gamer, but it should be a close series...maybe with a few overtimes. Should be a great series.
Prediction:
KINGS IN SIX
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