You play all year and acquire all the right players (hopefully) in order to overcome adversity like this. If you ever hear stories about different battle tested playoff veterans they all are highlighted by a "backs to the wall" scenario.
Tonight, and for the rest of this series if it extends, is that scenario for Darryl Sutter and the Los Angeles Kings.
After a lackluster showing for roughly 40 minutes in Game 4, the Kings dropped into territory they did not want to be in but are not altogether unfamiliar with; Facing elimination at the hands of the San Jose Sharks.
But as Sutter was quick to remind everyone post Game 4, this is not the same Kings team as 2012, and this is not the same Sharks team either. The Sharks have played a better series than the Kings. Plain and simple. They have capitalized on their chances and opportunities better than the Kings have, and despite a possession battle at 5v5 that has gone in favor of the Kings slightly, they continue to stymie them at even strength. The depth for the Sharks has been tremendous throughout the series, and DeBoer has really taken advantage of the San Jose depth, versus Sutter seemingly scrambling for answers in the nether region of his lineup.
While we do not presume there to be any changes from Peter DeBoer's lineup, Sutter has his blender out and the top line is getting an...unexpected addition.
Per Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider:
King - Kopitar - Gaborik
Lucic - Carter - Toffoli
Pearson - Lecavalier - Brown
Clifford - Lewis - Versteeg
Scuderi - Doughty
Muzzin - Schenn
Two guys who might as well not play
Quick
Tonight starts a long trek back for the Kings, and improvements have to be made. Let's fire up the preview.
Tonight's Keys
The Start.
If the Kings want any hope in this game they have to get on the board first and prevent the Sharks from getting too much going early on. Preferably you would want the Kings to come out pounding in the first 10 minutes and get the Sharks in the "Maybe tonight isn't our night" mentality. With the series swinging back to San Jose that is a very real feeling that could arise if the Kings manage a couple of quick strikes in the first period.
However, the Sharks have been the purveyor of timely and early goals in this series. The Sharks have scored inside the first five minutes of the game in three of the four games of the series, and scored just six minutes in in the game that they didn't. They have also scored the first goal of the game in three of the four games, the only exception being Game 1. They have been ready to go from the start of every single game, so whatever locker room speech DeBoer and the Shark leadership group is giving pre-game, it seems to be working.
Also key in this game is the net front drive. Does this sound like a foreign term? I would not blame you if it did considering the Kings have done very little of it this series. Marian Gaborik has been about the most assertive player on the Kings offensive lines in breaking into the middle of the ice and backing the San Jose defense off. Everyone else has established a more perimeter role, accepting the shell that the Sharks have established around Martin Jones. Coupled with the cool and calm demeanor of the former Kings netminder, the Sharks have done an incredible job at limiting high danger chances. After Game 4, Martin Jones gave up his VERY FIRST low-danger goal against from Luke Schenn's point shot. The Sharks defense has kept everything to the outside, and the Kings have acquiesced.
War-on-ice puts the Kings high-danger scoring chances, which are chances generated in the high and low slot, at 47-38 at even strength in favor of San Jose. At a per 60 rate that is 12.1, and in the series that is around nine a game. During the regular season the Kings managed 11.7. So while the per 60 rates look similar, the problem seems to be conversion. Welcome to Kings hockey, where the team was embodied perfectly during the regular season by that of Dustin Brown, Trevor Lewis, and Nick Shore. The Kings most effective line during the regular season in generating scoring chances and high danger chances was also one of the most offensively stunted and worst PDO'd lines on the team.
While the Sharks are not limiting the Kings high danger chances per se, they ARE doing one thing: Stopping the ones that are being generated. When at first you do not succeed, try try again.
Maybe more concerning than the team compiled metrics of scoring chance data is the individual ones.
The Kings top five forwards in the series at generating high danger chances for are the following:
Nic Shore
Andy Andreoff
Kris Versteeg
Trevor Lewis
Kyle Clifford
If you eliminate the one game sample of the top two players, Dwight King and Jeff Carter come next.
The Kings worst players?
Lecavalier
Brown
Kopitar
Pearson
Gaborik
In fact, most of the Kings roster is below the 50% threshold in dangerous chances
View post on imgur.com
These numbers are a far cry away from what the regular season garnered, especially from LA's top players.
View post on imgur.com
(Oh hey Kris Versteeg, enjoying that 4th line usage?)
If the Kings want to survive tonight it is going to come on the back of their top six. Not their bottom six. While Lecavalier and Brown have been altogether a smoking train wreck aside from the overtime winner, the bottom line players have been brilliant, while the top two lines have stagnated and stalemated.
Forget Special Teams
It has been discussed ad nauseum at this point, but the Sharks have pummled the Kings relentlessly on the powerplay. Game 4's 3-for-4 was just another dagger amongst many that already pierce the LA skin. For whatever reason, entry was easy in Game 4 and the set-up was even easier.
If the Kings are going to allow San Jose opportunities to capitalize on the powerplay, they have to return in kind, and they have done so. Kings powerplay is clicking at a 23.2 rate, which is better than the regular season. In fact, you could say that the Kings are even close in this series because they have had powerplay markers in three of the four games.
Five-on-five though is a different story. Kings are only scoring 1.3 goals per 60 minutes at even strength. That is a significant drop from the 2.1 posted during the regular season. Shots are also down from 31.0 per 60 to 22.0. While all the talk has been about the special teams play, the Kings need to do better at even strength, and to come full circle it has to come from...
Key Players
The Kings top two lines. The Kings have two players in this series with even strength goals, and neither of them are top six (Tanner Pearson and Trevor Lewis). The only player with multiple POINTS in this series at even strength is Tanner Pearson. Carter and Toffoli have combined for 0 points at evens in the series. Although Carter is tied for the series lead on the Kings with seven individual shots, six came in one game.
Press the envelope. Drive the lanes. Get out of the mentality of blindly throwing chances at net from bad areas. The Sharks have blocked an unreal amount of shots, and the Kings forwards have missed or had shots blocked at a near 2:1 ratio. While the matchups are tough for the top six, they have to win the battle at even strength....and that means score.
Like we stated last time out, the Kings have yet to really test Martin Jones, and that still remains. Will they finally break in tonight? Tune in at 730PM PST 1030 EST to see what happens in what could be the final game of the Kings season.
AHL Playoffs Ontario Reign
Meanwhile, while the NHL series is down in Los Angeles, the Ontario Reign series is up in San Jose on the very same ice the Kings/Sharks squared off on on Thursday. The No. 1 seeded Reign open their Calder Cup defense tonight as they take on the San Jose Barracuda at 7:30 PST. It has not been a good season series for the Barracuda, who dropped 9 of 12 games to the Reign during the regular season.
Updates will be provided on twitter as they happen.
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