Ah Jake Muzzin. Where do we start?
The most inexperienced NHL defenseman of the current Kings D-corps, also one of if not the most polarizing players on the roster. Not since the days of Jere Karalahti and Jaroslav Modry have I seen fans dive bomb a defenseman so hard for his play.
Really though, there is a lot to like with Muzzin.
He has a cannon of a shot, is a decent skater, physical, and a strong passer. He is still one of the best corsi defenseman in the NHL as well if you want to step into the realm of advanced stats. He has most of the natural tools you prefer in an NHL defenseman.
While I like Muzzin, even I have to shake my head and some of the miscues, bad reads, turnovers he makes sometimes. He is a young defenseman though and that is to be expected.
The last three games, the one prior to the Olympic break against the Jackets and the previous two at Colorado and Calgary, Muzzin has been noticeably better. The mistakes have been less often, the strong plays have been more often, and there is a lot less belly aching over the 25-year old.
So why is that?
When you look at the game logs the biggest discernable difference from the last three games to the span of 10-20 before that is the ice time.
Muzzin quite simply was playing too freaking much.
In these last four games Muzzin has played an average of around 16:30 give or take. Before that it was much much higher.
Notice how before the last three games Muzzin was rarely playing below 19 minutes a game. At times he was even playing as high as 23-24 minutes, and averaging more in the range of 22 minutes a night. If you go back to the beginning of the season, when Muzzin was impressing the pants off a lot of people, you can see that he was playing no more than 19 minutes a game usually, and was hovering in the 16-18 realm.
I'm not one to question coaching, considering I'm not a coach, but I think it is pretty obvious that Muzzin has been run into the ground with too much ice-time and responsibility too quickly. There was a natural chemistry between Doughty and Muzzin, and Doughty's play improved markedly when he paired up with him originally. Now however, in the late stages of this season, you can see the wear and tear it has taken on the young blue liner.
This brings up a couple different points or concerns with the current Kings' roster. There is a much deeper problem than "Muzzin is bad" as many people like to point out.
Muzzin was given the opportunity to play with Doughty for a reason. What was that reason? No one else was stepping up. No one else was capable of carrying the load early in the season. Does everyone remember how brutal it was to watch Regehr/Doughty and Mitchell/Doughty? It wasn't good at all. Doughty didn't look comfortable and neither did Regehr or Mitchell. No offense to the elder statesman but Doughty played with a tempo that was hard for them to keep up with. Muzzin should glimpses of that, and when it clicked for a few games Sutter decided to ride that horse for as long as possible. Here we are, less than a week from the trade deadline and that horse is on its last leg.
Back in January, Helene Elliott posted an article with the LA Times about Jake Muzzin.
Here is the entire article, which is worth a quick read. This quote stood out to me when I read it originally so I went searching for it:
"Those are the minutes we need to get out of [Muzzin], if you look at it," Sutter said. "With Robyn and Willie, they give you everything they got, but they're not kids. And with our schedule, when you're pushing those guys into the lows 20s, it affects their game and affects their performance and back to back nights….
It wasn't a square peg into a round hole situation, it was too much too soon, and for too long a time really. While Muzzin arguably has a ceiling of a 2-4 defenseman, his time is not now, and he still needs the protected minutes we are seeing him fall back into now. Being exposed to the 20+ minute a night game isn't bad in short stints to ease him in. However, he went from the swimming pool to the English Channel in a heartbeat. He has stayed there throughout the majority of the season.
Second thing this has brought up, it has never been more apparent to me that the Kings need a defenseman either at the deadline or in the offseason to play with Doughty. A true top-pairing defenseman. As it currently stands this team has a No. 1 defenseman and then five No. 3-6's. No one is capable at this point of playing the minutes Doughty is playing against the competition he faces. Credit Muzzin for trying I say, but when you play 23 minutes a game the rookie mistakes are going to be more common because...well...you are out there and exposed to them way more often. Also, you are paired against other teams top forwards because that's what Doughty plays against.
Scuderi, for the step he lost last season, was still capable of playing those minutes. Looking at last season's post-season numbers, Scuderi was a horse alongside Doughty. He played no less than 22 minutes a night on average in two of the most brutal series I have ever witnessed.
Third and final thing it brings up, trading Muzzin creates a bigger hole than it fills. No, it wouldn't be addition by subtraction. I've seen his name tossed around in numerous scenarios on fan forums, twitter, and different blogs. It's
not something that is going to have a positive effect on the Kings
UNLESS it's bringing back a more capable defenseman in return. The Kings have three expiring contracts on three 30+ aged players coming up in the next two years. Two of them, Matt Greene and Willie Mitchell, are coming up this offseason. The team cannot, at this point, afford to lose a younger defenseman who is capable of playing bottom four minutes. Again, unless you are packaging Muzzin or Martinez for something much grander it's not going to work out well. Remove those GM caps for a second folks and settle down on the Muzzin trade ideas.
Again it is not quite as simple as, "Muzzin is bad."
If Muzzin was bad he wouldn't be in the NHL. Simple as that. Muzzin is actually quite the strong player. Is he a strong player when being forced to play top minutes? Yea maybe not. In the right situation though Muzzin is an extremely valuable asset.
You have to take into consideration the "why" of the situation. Why is Muzzin playing with Doughty? Why is he struggling? Why have things suddenly turned around? Why are the Kings looking for a defenseman when offense has struggled all season?
It is because Muzzin has been laboring while being forced to play top-pairing minutes before he is ready to do so. It is also because no one else is capable of doing so either. He simply has been the best option available. Don't think Dean Lombardi hasn't seen it either.
The solution to the problem is a different blog for a different day. That solution might not come until the summer as well. The market at the trade deadline is wrought with overpayment. When else are you going to get Garth Snow asking for a top draft pick, a top prospect, and a proven NHL roster player for a rental player who has already said he wants to pursue free agency? There might be a gem buried out there at the deadline that Lombardi can pry loose for a reasonable return, but my expectations are always low when it comes to deadline dealings being entirely fair valued.
So next time you are about to send out that tweet or that post on forum xyz about how Muzzin is terrible and we should trade him for a bag a of pucks, stop and consider what I've written. Or just send it anyways, it gives me a little bit more to write about!
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