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Breaking Down Derek Forbort and His Potential

July 10, 2016, 3:07 PM ET [13 Comments]
Jason Lewis
Los Angeles Kings Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT



In his career Derek Forbort is unfortunately known for one thing thus far:

Being the guy picked before Vladdy Tarasenko.

Yes, that is true. At No. 15 in the 2010 Entry Draft, the Kings went to USNTDP to grab the lanky two-way defenseman, leaving what would be a very talented Russian superstar on the board.

Hey, it is the draft, it happens. I do not think you can really blame Dean Lombardi. There were 15 teams that passed on Tarasenko, and probably 13 that would redraft and take him as their first selection in a heartbeat. Edmonton and Boston being the exceptions...maybe. That too is debatable considering both Seguin and Hall have now been traded by their original parent clubs.

Anyways, there was no denying that in 2010 the Kings needed to restock defensemen, and in hindsight the 2010 First Round was exceptionally light on impact rearguards. Erik Gudbranson and Cam Fowler have settled into the NHL, but Dylan McIlrath, Brandon Gormley, Mark Pysyk, Jarred Tinordi and the Kings' own Derek Forbort have struggled to make an impact with their respective NHL clubs. However, no one could know that when they were drafted really.

Development is a long process, particularly for defensemen. Even by patient standards though, six years is a long time to just be scratching the surface of the NHL.

However, there are still reasons to believe that the Kings covet a very useful defenseman with the former UND blueliner.

Yesterday the Kings inked the restricted free agent to an interesting two-year extension.




The contract interestingly guarantees 100K of AHL salary next year, versus 400K the following year. While we have probably said it a number of times already with Forbort, this really makes 2016-17 a potentially "Make or break" year for him in terms of an NHL future. At 24 years old, there are pressures coming from numerous areas. Kevin Gravel seems to have a more firm foot in the door within the Kings, and the new addition of Zach Trotman should also challenge the young defenseman to elevate enough to solidify a spot. The acquisition of Trotman also has potential long term implications given his age.

Is there reason to believe he delivers?

As with any player attempting to get into the NHL, our biggest enemy for better or for worse is sample size.

Forbort has played just 14 games in the NHL all coming last season. Worse yet, he averaged just 11:03 in ice time over those 14 games. He also played just six games of his 14 logged OVER his season average. There were nights with the Kings when Forbort touched the ice about as much as the penalty box attendants and timekeepers. Most notably two games in December against Ottawa and Columbus where he played 3:53 and 5:24 respectively.

The eye test, for the most part, has been the primary tool when evaluating Forbort given the nature of his volatile ice time and usage. We do have some numbers, some very good ones in fact, but again our biggest enemy here will be the amount.

If we were looking at strictly numbers, Forbort shows a lot of promise despite his infrequent usage and year you could label as a "Struggle"

Overall he was unable to secure a roster spot on the team, and the acquisition of outside talent like Luke Schenn and Rob Scuderi put him down in the AHL for better or for worse. Unlike Michael Mersch, who jumped back and forth a few times during the season, Forbort was up, and then down. For good. Ultimately the combo of McBain, Schenn, and Scuderi made it all but impossible for him to log ice time or even dress for games despite some very positive returns in limited minutes. That does not sound overly positive given the performance of his competition. BUT, by this point we should all know that Darryl Sutter is not an easy player for young skaters to break in under. Especially with a roster full of grizzled vets that have the experience. Derek Forbort, overall, was better or equal to that of Schenn, McBain, and Rob Scuderi. The fact that he was not afforded the ice time was no fault of his. He actually did quite well with the minutes he was given, and we will get to that.

Forbort's perhaps biggest knock is that he is not particularly noticeable in any one aspect of the game. He is a calm and almost unnoticeable figure on the backend. He is not risky. Not aggressive. But not a detriment in either puck moving or defensive zone play. By our own entry and exit tracking, he had a success rate of around 73.2% in controlled exits. However, he had almost zero calculable data in terms of entries. He just simply did not do it enough. Instead, Forbort relied heavily on dump in plays, averaging the third most amongst King defensemen in his limited minutes. And again, when it comes back to agression, Forbort failed to deny zone entries with any regularity. His zone entry denial plays were the lowest of any Kings defenseman per 60 minutes of ice time. Again, small sample size, but not the greatest numbers. For reference, team average was 4.51 zone entry denials, Forbort logged a 2.95. The next closest player to Forbort was actually Drew Doughty at a 3.06, followed by Jamie McBain at a 3.44. However, Doughty's speciality lies in his possession of the puck, limiting would be opportunities for entry denial.

In fact, Forbort attempted only seven total zone entry plays last season. He also only attempted 12 carry outs of his zone despite having a much better skating ability than your average defenseman and only failing on one of those attempts. His pass outs also left a lot to be desired, as he converted on just 68% of those. For the most part, the 70% threshold seems to be a line which stands between replaceable and not.

There has been good and there has been bad. Most of the bad has been a combination of unfamiliarity, perhaps nerves, and as mentioned before a lack of aggression in his style.

Sutter gave good insight on LA Kings Insider into his early evaluations with Forbort back in November after the rookie had played a few game.

The bottom line is, he’s going to play on the third pair and he’s got to give you teen-minutes. If you can’t win with those teen-minutes, then he’s not ready. He’s got good size and good skill, so he’s got to use them both. [Reporter: Does that come-] Yeah, I think a little bit. I mean, you say he’s been around – he hasn’t. He’s played very little hockey. He played a college schedule, so he hasn’t played much hockey. He played last year, and if their team wouldn’t have had a playoff run, he would’ve had no chance of making this team this year. Just the experience of playing in situations. Quite honest, him and Christian are the very same. Christian’s older, so you’ve got to manage his games and make sure he gets his pace and keeps his execution and his compete up, and same with Derek. He has to learn about pace, execution and compete. So maintaining that with Christian and getting Derek to be there certainly gives us the same guy.


We could definitely see both the positives and negatives at times with the young defenseman in regards to that pace and execution at said pace. While pace, execution, and compete are among our most favored hockey cliches, they do have real implications and impacts even in the statistical world.

For example. Here is a great, low hesitation, well executed D to D support and breakout pass from Derek Forbort.

View post on imgur.com


He gets himself in the right area, and makes a great tape to tape pass to the streaking forward on the wing. Well done, well executed. That is a play that the Kings want to see from their defensemen. They start the play, they drive the play. If your D cannot spring the forwards or move the play up ice, then what use are they?

Now, here is a play very much in the opposite category.

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It may not look like much, but the slightest holding of the puck pretty much eliminates Forbort's options for a good breakout with control.

View post on imgur.com


Here is a better look. While it seemed like the riskier play was to hit a man in the center, that's exactly what he should have done. Instead, he rolled a difficult to handle puck up the wall that eventually bounced over the forward's stick and into Columbus possession.

Small detail, but an entire change of possession.

The smallest hesitation from Forbort took away the Kings breakout scheme. Forbort did everything right except trust his pass. He had his head up. He skated with the puck. He saw his options. However, he did not trust his pass and hit his guys.

Here is another mistake, however, this CAN give you hope with Forbort.

View post on imgur.com


He forces this play. It was somewhat ill-advised, but he saw the option and tried to execute it. Much like Jake Muzzin, the Kings are often rewarded by his risk taking and confidence in his ability to hit players with stretch and breakout passes. Same could be said for Alec Martinez, who takes equally risky stretch passes but trusts in his ability to execute. That hesitation is expected in younger players, but you would rather see them make mistakes trying to make a play rather than not.

You can apply this to other areas with Forbort as well. Not just breakouts.

Here is a good play by Forbort in pinching down to hold a play in. If you have read the blog in the past you know that the Kings aggressive pinch plays are a huge part of their system..

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The Kings support play from their wingers and centers covering the back door allow for defensemen to step down in the zone and cut off plays before they can leave the opposing zone. In the above play, Forbort does the right thing and comes down to try and hold it in, aware that his winger is covering him. The play does not get held in but the Kings do eventually regain possession because Minnesota is forced to cede possession at the red line.

This play only works if you actually commit though. This is another element of young player hesitation and lack of aggression.

View post on imgur.com


Close that gap, son!

David Jones is in a scary position as a winger. He is facing up on his puck carrier in order to make himself available. He will certainly take a look over his shoulder to gauge where the opponent is, but by the time that happens, if Forbort commits down, he could be right in his kitchen in the matter of seconds. The Kings have two other players hovering in the zone (With advantageous position on defenders mind you..) which could lead to retrieval, a chance, maybe even a goal. But you have to take that chance.

Again, some of our best examples of this come from Jake Muzzin. Here is one where a loose puck is held in the zone, and the Kings actually generate a decent chance due to him pinching down.

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And here is probably the holy grail of aggressive pinches. Watch this gif on repeat, because it is almost the same exact circumstance in which Forbort was in, except he passed on the opportunity to be aggressive.

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Now not every player is capable of these plays.

Rob Scuderi, Jeff Schultz, maybe even Jamie McBain. It is perhaps just not their style. It is a hard play. It is an instinct play. However Forbort has shown tendencies TOWARDS that style of play but has yet to fully commit. There is hope, but it is on him to take the next step if he can and if he wants to.

There was talk after Forbort got sent down that he needed to get "meaner" and perhaps "harder to play against". And by that we do not mean fights, or hits. It is plays like what we see above that could make or break the young Dman.

Now, from a statistical standpoint there is also hope that Forbort still has a 4-6 spot in the NHL in the cards.

Players tend to be much better when paired up with Forbort. Again, limited minutes and unique situational usage kind of limits the value you should place in WOWY, but this is positive.

(For posterity, blue being above red/green is very good. It essentially means together, Forbort improves the numbers of the pair. And green being above red can signal that it is the other player benefiting from Forbort and not vice versa.)

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Then there was the simple fact that he was basically one of the best shot suppressing defenseman the Kings had, on top of being the best shot generating defenseman when on the ice.

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And if you think those numbers were inflated from his partnerships with Drew Doughty, perhaps think again.

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Stressing it one more time for good effect though, sample. Size.

We simply have to get more data from Derek Forbort, and the Kings now have two years to do so with his newest deal. He faces challenges considering the competition and the depth chart. However, the Kings really have to make a move when it comes to Forbort. They have to either give him the minutes to prove the numbers right, or deal him at the height of intrigue and potential. We see this with a number of prospects, they need the experience to prove themselves, but cannot prove themselves due to limited experience. It is a paradox, no doubt, but it is one that exists.

With the Kings looking to change the way they do some things, perhaps we see Derek Forbort get an immense opportunity this season. In reality he still has the ceiling of a potential 2nd pair defenseman, at least in the eyes of this blogger. It might not be a No. 3, but he has the tools to be a solid No. 4 in the NHL. There are tweaks to his game that need to be made, but there is also hope both statistically and eye test-ishly that he can do so.

At 650K for two years, this is an excellent "Prove it" bridge contract for someone whose future still could figure prominently into the Kings defensive corps in the long term.

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