There is a difference between being a #1C and being a centre on the first line (here's looking at you Tyler Bozak of last season). Sometimes it is by necessity, sometimes it is a chemistry thing, but quite often players are put into roles they really aren't fit for.
Recently, on a couple of major media outlets, the debate has started to be more realistic as to whether or not the Senators' top pivot, Kyle Turris can be considered a legitimate #1 centre in the NHL.
It is something that I didn't think would happen when the trade was first make, or even before last season. His strength didn't seem to be there, and I wasn't sure it ever would.
Now, with a full season under his belt as the default first line center and off to another solid start this season, I am almost ready to admit that I was wrong.
Let's start by defining what contsitutes a #1 centre:
1) Production, first and foremost. Given the rate of scoring in the NHL, there are only a handful of players who can maintain a point per game pace over the course of a full season. So I set the benchmark to .75 points per game, essentially a 60 point scorer (of which there were 53 total in all positions last season).
2) Consistency - being able to do it not for just one year, but for multiple seasons. So I went back over the past 2 full seasons and the first part of this year in this little project.
3) Offensive and Defensive awareness - You don't have to be a Selke Trophy nominee, but knowing what your own goaltender looks like on the ice is certainly a factor. Having the confidence of the coach to put a player out there no matter where the faceoff is happening
4) Being able to play against opponents top lines/defensive pairings
5) Playing in all situations - Even strength, Power play as well as killing penalties when needed
6) Being able to be productive on faceoffs, offensive and defensive zones.
A true #1 centre might not have all of the above qualities, but certainly need to have more than their fair share. I would suggest that there certainly aren't enough legitimate #1's to go around, and there are even fewer "elite" centres in the league.
So, where does Turris fit on the spectrum?
Over the past 2+ seasons there have been 24 centres (or players who were listed as centres, min 100 GP) who have put up an average 3/4 of a point per game, with Turris coming in just above the threshold with .76pts/gp (tied for 21st).
Hockey-reference.com also has a stat called "point share" where they use some formula that I can't quite figure out, (
but you can check out how they get the number here) to come up with a number and Turris can be attributed to 17 Senators' points over the past 2+ seasons, which ranks 14th.
Turris is also 7th in +/- and 7th in terms of even strength points among that group, while his durability is unquestioned as he hasn't missed a game since joining the Senators.
In terms of the "advanced stats" Turris is still working towards becoming an upper echelon player. First, look at where he stands among the same group in terms of possession, level of competition and zone starts over the past 2+ seasons, and he isn't in bad company.
Keeping in mind, the first year of this snapshot he was playing behind Jason Spezza as the Senators' #2 centre, here is where he is at so far this season in the early going.
As for faceoffs, Turris has taken the 13th most draws of any centre in the league (and 6th most of any on that top end list), and is over 50% in that time frame. He is almost 56% on the power play, and over 52% when shorthanded.
So I think judging by the stats and also by the eye test when you watch his game and how it (and he) has matured, he is certainly a legitimate #1 centre. Elite? Not quite in the same conversation as those who get perennial MVP votes, but as he enters the prime years of his career he is certainly exceeded my expectations.
Guess I was wrong.
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