Now that the threat of the team moving to a different city, and the cementing of Eugene Melnyk as the owner of the club long-term thanks to the NCC agreement to move forward with the LeBreton Flats redevelopment, Senators fans can focus more on the short-term future, and it doesn't look great.

On the plus side, we have seen how quickly things can turn around with the resurgence of the Devils and Avalanche, two of the bottom teams in the league last season that are in the midst of playoff runs this season, and the fact that 7 of the 16 teams occupying playoff spots as of the All-Star break were not in the post-season a year ago.

The Senators have fallen on hard times, and there are lots of rumors about pending changes, most notably guys potentially being moved out. The problem is, the reasons the Senators have fallen below expectations are not the candidates to be on the move.

There has been almost no speculation that a goaltending fix is on the horizon, and that has been problem #1 this season. Sometimes I like to be right, and if I remember correctly the two biggest concerns I had heading into the season were goaltending and schedule.

I was right on the goaltending because both Craig Anderson and Mike Condon have been dreadful on many nights and below average on most. Anderson is turning 37 in May, and he has an extension that kicks in next year that will have an extra $550K cap hit to his current $4.2M. And guess what...since it is an over 35 contract they can't get out of it. Condon was rewarded a three year extension after his heroics last season that got the Senators into the playoffs while Anderson was dealing with his family issues, but he hasn't been able to repeat that consistency this season. Remind you of anyone? Perhaps a certain Hamburglar?

So, with more than $7M wrapped up in two underacheiving goalies, neither one of them a prime trade possibility, and no proven solution from within on the horizon (Marcus Hogberg hasn't exactly asserted himself as a legit prospect yet) the Senators are handcuffed right away.

Pile on that with two monster contracts that are all but immovable, in blueliner Dion Phaneuf (3 more years @ $7M cap hit) and Bobby Ryan (4 more years @ $7.25M) and the Senators are in leg irons too. A buyout of one or the other is possible but highly unlikely given cost of replacement and the signing bonuses due to both that are not affected by the buyout. I have said before that you can survive with one monster contract that is under-performing, but not two.

Now comes the straight-jacket, and that is Erik Karlsson and Matt Duchene. Both have one year left on their contract before facing unrestricted free agency, and both will be looking for significant raises on their $6.5M and $6M respective contracts. There is no doubt that both will be probably overpaid, whether it be in Ottawa or elsewhere when they finally agree to new contracts.

So, as a current state of the Senators, you can deal the Pageu's, Smith's and Hoffman's but those aren't your problems. With the exception of Hoffman, you can replace those guys with younger, cheaper options, but you aren't going to get much for them.

Realistically, the Senators aren't going to be really competitive for at least 2-3 years, and maybe longer. You can patch the existing lineup with retooling, but perhaps finding a long term solution that coincides with a new arena might be the way to go. If you look at the recent "dynasties" in the NHL, it is built on hitting rock bottom and getting 3 or 4 top end draft picks (Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Fleury) (Kane, Toews) and getting lucky later on in the draft (Kopitar, Bergeron, Keith).

The Senators have that later round luck in guys like Hoffman and Stone, and getting Karlsson where they did, but they haven't had a top 5 pick, and only 2 in the top 10 since drafting Jason Spezza 2nd overall in 2002. All the late round magic isn't going to mean much if you don't get that pool of top end prospects.

As such, since you are looking at a 3-5 year window to be really truly competitive, and that is if you hit rock bottom and have 2 or 3 top 5 picks, the best thing to do would be to trade Karlsson, and maybe even Duchene, now. When the new arena opens, they will both be around 32-33 years old and in the middle of what will be some pretty bad contracts. You deal them for an array of picks to teams like Winnipeg and Tampa (for example) now, who have a bounty of young prospects and cap space and that have eyes on a potential Stanley Cup run and might be a key player away from making that happen. They would get this year and next out of those players, so it wouldn't be a rental situation, and the Senators can stockpile picks and prospects.

If you are the Senators, you then sign Stone to the max 8 year extension now and build around him and Thomas Chabot, being the anchors for the rebuild. You surround them with the prospects and draft picks that you get now and in the next couple of years, building the foundation for hopefully what becomes a perennial contender that coincides with Eugene's new downtown toy, and then there are no excuses.

In four years, you will be out from Phanef and Ryan's deals, won't have the albatross of an aging Karlsson and Duchene hanging over you, and hopefully by then with a Buffalo/Arizona-like stint you have 3 or 4 top end developing prospects and boatloads of cap space to keep them around for a while.

The last time the Senators tried to rebuild, it backfired because Craig Anderson came in via trade at the deadline and was simply too good. Despite dealing the likes of Mike Fisher, Alexei Kovalev Chris Kelly, Chris Campoli, Brian Elliott and Jarkko Ruutu away for lesser bodies in 2011, Anderson went 11-5-1 down the stretch and the Senators ended up outside the top 5 again, getting Mika Zibanejad at #6.

Senators fans have been suffering in mediocrity for too long, being close but not quite, but never really being bad enough (since the early years at least) to really build something special. It might be time to sacrifice the present, even at the expense of dealing the most talented player the franchise has had. They need to get a reset and go forward starting fresh with a new team in a new arena, hopefully with an owner with a new perspective on what it takes to build a team that can compete over the long haul, and is proactive instead of reactive.

I don't know if there is a quick-fix option that is available given the state of the goaltending and the contracts that they can't get out of, that would be anything more than a band-aid solution that would see them in the same crap, different day situation that they find themselves in now, and it is Groundhog Day all over again.

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