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2 weeks till deadline, Sens open for business, has Dorion already lost? |
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Two weeks from today, the dust will be settled and the directions for the Ottawa Senators will be set...unless it isn't.
Over the last couple of years, trade deadline day has turned into trade deadline two weeks, which coincidentally happens to land today, 14 days before the Feb 26th 3:00 pm target.
For Senators GM Pierre Dorion, if he doesn't know what the intentions are of Erik Karlsson by now, he has already lost. He has stated that he doesn't plan on trading Karlsson, but I am not sure he really knows where karlsson's head is at.
Sure, nothing can be made official until July 1st, but if Dorion has not met with Karlsson's agents and basically have an agreement in principle, handshake deal then any other move Dorion makes of any significance has a "what if" component to it.
If a deal is in place, then Dorion knows what he is working with in terms of salary structure and assets. If he knows Karlsson will price himself out of the Ottawa market, then Dorion and the Senators would be best served to trade him now to get maximum value for him because a team acquiring him will get 2 playoff runs out of him before he gets to UFA status.
Other than Karlsson, the other telling move between retool and rebuild will be whether or not Mike Hoffman moves. If Hoffman is dealt, they might as well deal Karlsson and Matt Duchene as well, getting a bounty of picks and prospects and maybe even packaging a bad contract or two along the way. Trading Hoffman, probably the clubs best natural goal scorer, would signify a throwing in of the towel and would simply be a cash grab in terms of saving his salary (which is actually pretty reasonable). Then the Senators will spend the next five years looking for a goal scorer like that Mike Hoffman guy.
Some of this is repetition of a post I wrote a week or two ago, but nothing has changed in the Senators' situation. They have too much baggage to make a simple retool and be competitive in the long term. They don't have a goaltending solution, two massive bad contracts in Bobby Ryan (who also can't stay healthy) and Dion Phaneuf, none of which are short term fixes and will affect the team for 3-4 years going forward.
The solution, if Karlsson is not part of the picture, (and I firmly believe even if he is) is to divest of all players at or near their prime and rebuild from scratch.
Look no further than Saturday night's opponent and rival Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs are at a different point in their rebuild, and are a prime example of what I think the Senators need to do, as painful as it might be. They have 4 top-10 picks - Morgan Rielly, William Nylander, Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews - from the past 6 years all performing as key parts of the team right now.
Over the same period of time, the Senators have had a 15th (Cody Ceci), 17th (Curtis Lazar), 18th (Thomas Chabot), 21st (Colin White) and an 11th (Logan Brown). You can find talent drafting at that mid-level, but more sure things happen at the top end, and the Senators need to get some of that top-end talent to go with it if they are going to become a consistent threat.
They aren't always going to find a gem like Karlsson, who was a 15th overall pick but would be a top 3 pick (if not #1) if you re-did that draft in hindsight (Steven Stamkos and Drew Doughty being the other two contenders), Stone and Hoffman and those late scores help matters but you still need some top end picks. Yes they do have players that were drafted high in Ryan (2nd) and Duchene (3rd) but the Senators paid pretty steep prices to add those players.
Sure, the Senators might not be as fortunate at the Blue and White and nab a "generational talent" like Matthews, but if they were to deal all the assets they would get a return of picks and prospects that can make a solid base to go along with Mark Stone and Thomas Chabot as the anchors and then mix in their top prospects like Drake Batherson, Logan Brown and Alex Formenton. While those latter three might not be the top end, they could be a solid supporting base for what would hopefully be two or three top 5 picks to form the future core.
The caveat is that they owe the Avalanche one of their first rounders in the next two years which they would have to recoup to make the plan work.
The fan base has sat through retools before and haven't been rewarded, so I would say it is now time to blow it up completely and start over. It might be the painful route and it is not likely to get the approval of Eugene Melnyk because it might mean some lean years, and there certainly is no guarantee (ask the Oilers) but retools haven't been the answer in the past.
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
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